AHC: Make Japan win the Pacific War.

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That's the $64,000 question Curtain Jerker. The Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor because they feared the U.S. would not have remained neutral if they moved south. Would the U.S. have remained neutral if a major source of the resources you mentioned was cut off? Not to mention would they remain neutral if this resource center was cut off from the UK and Free France. I suspect even the America First crowd would be getting uneasy at this point with Japan taking such an aggressive stance.

At least this way Japan might avoid a war war with the US, so it's high risk but better than suicide. And if the US still declares war, at least a compromise peace might be possible as there wouldn't be the wave of fury and patriotism that followed PH.
 
Without nuclear weapons and with the US engaged in the war just like it did (at least in the beginning). You can do whatever you want with Hitler and the European Allies, including Soviets.

Impossible given those criteria. You need to change the fundamental Japanese strategy to even give them the slimmest chance and that means the US can't be engaged in the Pacific War just like it was at the beginning.
 
Japan and Italy stage for offensives against French and UK territory. No declaration of war just ability to jump in quickly if looks promising. Makes the strategic situation more difficult for allies. Both attack on June 10th due to French Collapse and perceived Weakness. UK forces in Egypt were actually prepared to fall back if under strong assault. Now appear UK on the ropes on multiple fronts. July 10th Spain seeing weakness declares war and lays siege to Gibraltar. Concept being optics of the war looking worse to UK government and population. May make them amenable to negotiations. Surrender of Malta to Italy, Gibraltar to Spain and Carte blanche giving to Japan in regard to Dutch East Indies. Hitler wanted peace with UK so open to negotiations. Mussolini will take what he can get. Japan really needs oil noy anything else from UK. US still isolationist and really not prepared mentally or militarily for war. Japan only hope is for war to end before UK can begin recovering and US is ready to enter the war. This won't happen due to military force but instead to political forces
 
If Japan attacks the US she loses unless ASB's interfere. Japan's only chance is to either withdraw from China to end the US Embargo (given the political climate ASB right there) or attack UK and Dutch possessions ONLY and hope the US doesn't get drawn in. That's possible but a gamble...
Doing that is borderline ASB too. IJN/IJA interservice politics meant, if IJN didn't make a bigger contribution to the fighting, it risked its budget disappearing. That was a significant factor in choosing to attack Pearl Harbor: the excuse was, Britain & the U.S. (based on U.S. action in the Atlantic) were seen as inseparable, so any attack on British possessions would bring in the U.S. in any case. Unless you can eliminate IJN budget fears...

If you really want a Japanese victory, you've got to go back before WW1, probably, to change the education & training systems of both IJN & IJA. You want better educated officers with a better grasp of technology (& an actual grasp of the difference between "tactical" & "strategic":rolleyes:) & a lower acceptance of blind obedience & inflexibility. Doing this, however, may mean no war in China, let alone war with the U.S., so...

There is the option of making a deal with Chiang before 1941, & AiUI, he'd have made a deal, distrusting the CCP more than the Japanese, & willing to sacrifice Manchuria. I've also heard that called improbable. So...
 
Agreed phx1138. Ending the infighting between the IJA and IJN coupled with less adventurism on the part of the IJA would certainly help as well...
 
The WAllies decide to launch "Operation Unthinkable" on 1 July 1945 and invade the USSR. Bogged down in a war with the Soviets, the WAllies and Japanese sign a truce, with the Japanese Empire keeping most of its occupied land.
 
The WAllies decide to launch "Operation Unthinkable" on 1 July 1945 and invade the USSR. Bogged down in a war with the Soviets, the WAllies and Japanese sign a truce, with the Japanese Empire keeping most of its occupied land.
Not happening. The US will just keep the island blockaded and Japan is still screwed.
 

SsgtC

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The WAllies decide to launch "Operation Unthinkable" on 1 July 1945 and invade the USSR. Bogged down in a war with the Soviets, the WAllies and Japanese sign a truce, with the Japanese Empire keeping most of its occupied land.
What occupied territory? Korea? Manchuria? China? If the US decides to launch an attack on the USSR, they're going to be attacking Korea and Manchuria in order to force the Soviets into a two front war. The Asian front may not be very active, but it will be there. Plus, the Home Islands offer nothing the US didn't already have. The USN would just blockade them and starve the Japanese out. After Pearl Harbor, the Bataan Death March and all the horrors of the island hopping campaign, the US was in no mood to negotiate with Japan.
 
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The WAllies decide to launch "Operation Unthinkable" on 1 July 1945 and invade the USSR. Bogged down in a war with the Soviets, the WAllies and Japanese sign a truce, with the Japanese Empire keeping most of its occupied land.

"Sure great idea, we'll tack transferring command of IJA units and what remains of the IJN to allied commanders onto the unconditional surrender."

The Japanese would do better trying to align with Stalin... except they won't actually do any better because guess what, Stalin ain't got a single bushel of wheat to spare for them.
 

SsgtC

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The only way Japan could win is if they invent the nuclear powered attack submarine.
Even then it's doubtful. Japanese submarine doctrine was terrible. Out of all the major naval players in WWII, Japan probably made the worst use of it's subs
 
Even then it's doubtful. Japanese submarine doctrine was terrible. Out of all the major naval players in WWII, Japan probably made the worst use of it's subs

Pretty much, they'd probably slap a catapult and a hangar atop it and plan to use it for strikes against the Panama Canal or something.
 
There is the scenario in "Careful what you wish for" where the Japanese attack the Phillipines instead of Pearl Harbour and lure the US fleet into a decisive engagement in the Luzon Strait. The Americans are defeated and lose many battleships in deep water, while the US public loses enthusiasm with a war fought over a colony rather than American soil itself. Peace is made in early 1942 as Japan gets the Phillipines and American oil supplies. That's pretty much the only way they can get victory in my opinion.

except the USN had no intention of being lured into or charge across the pac into a fleet engagement, to save USAFFE or otherwise.
 
Not immediately. But eventually, some hot head is going to attack either US warships, planes or territory. This will be triggered, probably, by the USN broadcasting the location of every Japanese ship and plane they see, in the clear, to everyone that can hear. And probably "inspecting" the cargo of every Japanese merchant ship they see that comes within 500 miles of the Philippines. Looking for contraband. Like oil, rubber and metals which were embargoed.

while continuing the reinforcements buildup to USAFFE, no less.
 
"Sure great idea, we'll tack transferring command of IJA units and what remains of the IJN to allied commanders onto the unconditional surrender."

The Japanese would do better trying to align with Stalin... except they won't actually do any better because guess what, Stalin ain't got a single bushel of wheat to spare for them.
All considered, I don't see any U.S, commander being too sorry if an "allied" IJA unit got short-rounded. I can imagine them being used lie Sov prison units to clear minefields--by marching through them.:eek:

I'm a bit unclear why USAAF doesn't KO Sov power production with a nuke on Kuibishev.:confounded:
 
Going to detour this into something similar, since the original thread died down -

What's the latest possible PoD for the Japanese to avoid war with the US? Coming to terms with Chiang Kai-shek at some point, to avoid the embargo? Presumably the IJA regards this more as an opportunity to resupply and prepare for Round Two, but if Germany has rolled over France by then, Britain might be willing to throw China under the bus if it meant avoiding a Pacific theater, and so no embargo when Japan attacks China again.
 

CalBear

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How 'bout this: The IJN somehow finds out the US carriers are near Wake so it sends its subs and carrier task force there and sinks all three at the same time as PH in the OTL. The US battle fleet then steams out of PH and is sunk by subs and carrier planes. All ships and crews sunk are lost irretrievably.
Soon afterwards the IJN sends a few long range subs near the Panama canal, where they ambush and sink US reinforcements for the Pacific including a carrier. So the Japanese have relatively little trouble with the US in '42. They then send the bulk of their navy and army westward to overwhelm India late in '42 and go on to take the Persian gulf.
Or, the IJN mostly stays in the Pacific where in 1942-44 it tries to lure into battle and destroy piecemeal new US forces before they can accumulate into an invincible force. With luck, Japan may induce the US to negotiate an end to the war on favorable terms hence wins--in the sense originally planned.

Well, the U.S. carriers weren't near Wake. The Enterprise had delivered half of VMF-211 to Wake on December 2nd, by December 7th she was around 100 miles SW of Oahu. Lexington was two days outbound from Pearl Harbor steaming towards Midway on a mission to fly off VMSB-231 to reinforce the defenses on the Islands. She and Enterprise were about 1,000 miles apart on December 7th. Saratoga was just entering San Diego harbor following a refit at Bremerton.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Going to detour this into something similar, since the original thread died down -

What's the latest possible PoD for the Japanese to avoid war with the US? Coming to terms with Chiang Kai-shek at some point, to avoid the embargo? Presumably the IJA regards this more as an opportunity to resupply and prepare for Round Two, but if Germany has rolled over France by then, Britain might be willing to throw China under the bus if it meant avoiding a Pacific theater, and so no embargo when Japan attacks China again.
The embargo wasn't triggered (not fully) by China. To avoid the total embargo, they need to not invade French Indochina. That was the trigger for the total embargo.

And Chiang Kai-shek has no reason to negotiate with Japan. They've broken every single treaty they ever signed with China. He knows this. If he negotiates, he might as well put his gun to his head and pull the trigger. Because at that point, he's a walking deadman. He's probably assassinated before he even finishes the negotiation.
 
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