AHC: Make Japan win the Pacific War.

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Without nuclear weapons and with the US engaged in the war just like it did (at least in the beginning). You can do whatever you want with Hitler and the European Allies, including Soviets.
 
At the end Japan retains vast majority of its conquered territory.

Than you need a U.S. with a fundamentally different attitude towards the conflict. The numbers on every material aspect is so lopsided as to make it so the US will get an advantageous peace, at minimum, if they try. One can't cut down a tree with a herring
 
Well, how about this: POD is Hitler’s assassination in early ‘45. War in Europe ends soon after in German surrender. Three months later, in April or May, Stalin attacks the Japanese as he had promised. But soon after there is a falling out among the Allies, as the Red Army pushes far beyond what was agreed to with the West. This eventually escalates into Operation Unthinkable during the summer. As Japan is also fighting the Russians now, the Americans make a strategic calculation that burying the hatchet with the Japanese is preferable to having the Red Army conquer all of Europe. Japan gets to keep everything north of Singapore and the Philippines as well as what it takes from the Russians, plus pays significant reparations for Malay, Indochina and the cost of the war effort once the Soviets are defeated.
 
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You can beat the US of the 1939-1945 period in a war, but NOT in an unlimited will existential struggle. Not unless you're something like Germany plus Russia with all Europe occupied. The US's resources during that period are just too over the top. So what you COULD conceivably do is have the US get into a conflict with you that is at least ambiguous as to who started it, that avoids overly pissing off the US population. Then a series of victories followed by an advantageous peace that doesn't overly annoy the US (an independent Philippines, with Belgium-style guarantees by both the US and Japan, might be something workable there, along with an end to oil embargo). Also this would require a Japan that wasn't so comically inept at manipulating US public opinion.
 

CalBear

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Easy. They surrender in 1942 and change sides (a la OTL Italy). Anything else requires literal divine intervention.
 
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Well, how about this: POD is Hitler’s assassination in early ‘45. War in Europe ends soon after in German surrender. Three months later, in April or May, Stalin attacks the Japanese as he had promised. But soon after there is a falling out among the Allies, as the Red Army pushes far beyond what was agreed to with the West. This eventually escalates into Operation Unthinkable during the summer. As Japan is also fighting the Russians now, the Americans make a strategic calculation that burying the hatchet with the Japanese is preferable to having the Red Army conquer all of Europe. Japan gets to keep everything north of Singapore and the Philippines as well as what it takes from the Russians, plus pays significant reparations for Malay, Indochina and the cost of the war effort once the Soviets are defeated.
In May 45, the US has troops on Okinawa. All they have to do to beat Japan is keep their navy in the Pacific. Stalin doesn't have a navy, so there's no need to move the USN to fight him. And the IJA was annihilated in August Storm, so the Japanese won't be keeping anything in China either.

My best offer is that the Chinese army gets utterly smashed after Shanghai and is forced to make peace in late 1937 or 1938. Seeing as the Japanese defined winning in the Pacific as "being able to keep beating China", they've won. And they keep all their islands too. America goes "well that sucks" but doesn't do anything.

- BNC
 

trurle

Banned
Easy. They surrender in 1942 and change sides (a la OTL Italy). Anyth9ng else requires literal divine intervention.
The surrender of OTL Japan in 1942 would mean nearly instant coup by army and navy elements who think they are still winning. To prevent this, you likely need a POD related to Japanese information media policies deep into 19th century, and that change will likely prevent Japanese participation in WWII too.

As alternative, make the Japanese biological warfare agents actually working by 1940 instead of series of OTL mishaps. For example, make at least one Japanese biological warfare specialist into AIDS-nest of Kinshasa around 1928, make him realize the significance of the early clusters of AIDS-related diseases. Make him forceful enough to make by 1932 the Japanese government-sponsored program selling an intentionally contaminated blood products, drugs and prostitutes to US. Together with earlier invented hormonal contraceptives.
This way, by 1943 the productivity and combat power of US may suddenly start to decline. Initially the high turnover of combat units filled by younger men will be attributed to "classic" foreign diseases. First, average experience and competence level of US army and navy drops, as more infected soldiers are sent back to US and are replaced by non-symptomatic reservists. Then combat readiness drops because unit commanders are forced to keep marginally healthy soldiers in service. Then more combat casualties happens, wiping more of uninfected soldiers (who are preferentially assigned to front-lines), and casualties got replaced with increasingly infected reservists. This scenario may create a vicious cycle of military defeats and infection spread for US military, making Japanese "victory" much more likely.

Similar scenario worked for Muslim conquest of Byzantia a thousand years ago too, although it was largely unintentional till 13th century.
 
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In May 45, the US has troops on Okinawa. All they have to do to beat Japan is keep their navy in the Pacific. Stalin doesn't have a navy, so there's no need to move the USN to fight him. And the IJA was annihilated in August Storm, so the Japanese won't be keeping anything in China either.

My best offer is that the Chinese army gets utterly smashed after Shanghai and is forced to make peace in late 1937 or 1938. Seeing as the Japanese defined winning in the Pacific as "being able to keep beating China", they've won. And they keep all their islands too. America goes "well that sucks" but doesn't do anything.

- BNC

That doesn't match the OP's conditions that "the US engaged in the war just like it did (at least in the beginning)."
 
There is the scenario in "Careful what you wish for" where the Japanese attack the Phillipines instead of Pearl Harbour and lure the US fleet into a decisive engagement in the Luzon Strait. The Americans are defeated and lose many battleships in deep water, while the US public loses enthusiasm with a war fought over a colony rather than American soil itself. Peace is made in early 1942 as Japan gets the Phillipines and American oil supplies. That's pretty much the only way they can get victory in my opinion.
 
The best chance for Japan would be to have the Navy design all of its own aircraft ordnance. Since bombs look like torpedoes the torpedo ordinance bureau would be in charge of designing aerial bombs for used by US Navy aircraft. Knowing those incompetent bureaucrats incompetent bureaucrat anything they developed would not work.
Imagine how the Coral Sea and Midway would turn out if American bombs had the same failure rate as American torpedoes.
 

trurle

Banned
The best chance for Japan would be to have the Navy design all of its own aircraft ordnance. Since bombs look like torpedoes the torpedo ordinance bureau would be in charge of designing aerial bombs for used by US Navy aircraft. Knowing those incompetent bureaucrats incompetent bureaucrat anything they developed would not work.
Imagine how the Coral Sea and Midway would turn out if American bombs had the same failure rate as American torpedoes.
The poorly performing torpedoes of US Navy has happened because US Navy during interwar period has very limited funding specifically for torpedo testing. Making joint and larger budget for aerial bombs and torpedoes testing will likely catch the design failures of torpedo detonators earlier, without much effects on bomb detonators development.
 
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How 'bout this: The IJN somehow finds out the US carriers are near Wake so it sends its subs and carrier task force there and sinks all three at the same time as PH in the OTL. The US battle fleet then steams out of PH and is sunk by subs and carrier planes. All ships and crews sunk are lost irretrievably.
Soon afterwards the IJN sends a few long range subs near the Panama canal, where they ambush and sink US reinforcements for the Pacific including a carrier. So the Japanese have relatively little trouble with the US in '42. They then send the bulk of their navy and army westward to overwhelm India late in '42 and go on to take the Persian gulf.
Or, the IJN mostly stays in the Pacific where in 1942-44 it tries to lure into battle and destroy piecemeal new US forces before they can accumulate into an invincible force. With luck, Japan may induce the US to negotiate an end to the war on favorable terms hence wins--in the sense originally planned.
 
FDR dies near the end of his second term, Garner fucks up the campaign for President, and the GOP runs an isolationist instead of Willkie who wins. The isolationist - Robert Taft, maybe; I don’t know - works some ninja moves to keep Japan away, and they work.

Japan turns its efforts to the USSR and rolls all sixes along with Hitler doing the same. And then they shred as much of the Pacific as they can without pissing off the US.

That by itself is a massive stroke of luck. If they involve the US, they’re boned beyond all boning.
 
Soon afterwards the IJN sends a few long range subs near the Panama canal, where they ambush and sink US reinforcements for the Pacific including a carrier. So the Japanese have relatively little trouble with the US in '42. They then send the bulk of their navy and army westward to overwhelm India late in '42 and go on to take the Persian gulf.

The IJA numbered around 2,000,000
The Indians alone contributed 2,500,000 to the Allied armies. That was without conscription or the Japanese getting particularly close to any major Indian cities except for Calcutta and modern Bangladesh.

Meanwhile the IJA has to deal with China, and the Allies are able to reinforce India if it is threatened more than OTL.

Japan couldn't realistically conquer India, much less the Persian Gulf.

Or, the IJN mostly stays in the Pacific where in 1942-44 it tries to lure into battle and destroy piecemeal new US forces before they can accumulate into an invincible force.
The USN isn't going to throw one carrier at the Japanese at a time if reinforcements will be built fairly shortly after. If they lose all their carriers in a major battle like Coral Sea (unlikely, but possible enough), they will pull back to Hawaii, or at worst the West Coast, and assemble a new force. Someone a few posts above posted a video showing that the US built more ships 1942-1944 than the IJN would have had if it didn't lose a single ship until the end of the war.

Oh, and the Royal Navy exists as well, so even if a typhoon comes in and sinks every single US ship afloat in 1944, there's still enough ships opposing Japan that they're still stuffed.

Japan has two options: 1/ "win" before the USA decides to stomp them, or 2/ invent a typhoon creating machine and then put a typhoon near every single US ship that ever comes near them. And seeing that we don't have a typhoon making machine yet, I'm not even sure if that is physically possible in 1941.

- BNC
 
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