Back in the 1980’s, a lot of Americans believed that, with their technological advancements and roaring economy, Japan was poised to take over the world. Of course this didn’t happen. Japan’s economy came to a halt in the nineties and now that there is a resurgent China it is unlikely they will ever emerge on top again. But what if today Japan did become a country strong enough economically to challenge America, like how China is today?
AHC: Make Japan the pre-eminent superpower instead of China
- Thread starter Bomster
- Start date
That will require China to crash and burn,or do substantially worse than OTL. I don’t think Japan could have become number 2 or number 1 even if Japan didn’t crash.
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Japan, for whatever reason decides to allow immigration into the country earlier on and brings on the integration of said immigrants (because natural population growth won't be enough). Also the collapse of China itself into two countries during the civil war (a Communist and Authoritarian/Democratic country) as well as some other splinters (Xinjiang/Uygherstan, Tibet etc).
As a result you would need Japan to somehow keep Sakhalin and the Kurils as well as possibly remain in Taiwan and see the Taiwanese there slowly assimilated into what would be greater Japan.
Maybe, just maybe you have a population of around 200 million and if the average income is in that 40-50k region then you have an 8-10 trillion US dollar economy. Lesser than America but still significant.
As a result you would need Japan to somehow keep Sakhalin and the Kurils as well as possibly remain in Taiwan and see the Taiwanese there slowly assimilated into what would be greater Japan.
Maybe, just maybe you have a population of around 200 million and if the average income is in that 40-50k region then you have an 8-10 trillion US dollar economy. Lesser than America but still significant.
Have the PRC remain marginalized politically and economically, basically ending up as a larger DPRK. That would also have a knock on effect on more investment to Japan in terms of serving as a bigger bulwark and possibility remilitarization, which would promote population and economic growth.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
Easier said than done, especially on such a short timescale in the intensity that would be required. Japan dosen't have a cultural tradition of integrating outsiders, much less a concept of nationhood that allows for major ethnic distinctions. Assimilation really only works if you have that and the immigration has two of the three listed qualities: being gradual, being diverse, and if it's geographically dispersed.
Though... come to think of it, I could see one way you could get such a culture: have a substantial number of American troops get local girls during the Occupation and, rather than take them back stateside, settle down in Japan. That could build the familial connections and inject sufficent "natural" diversity and a deeper defusion of American values to the next generation to help open the country up
Maybe have Operation Downfall occur and devastate Japan to the point where they need to accept immigrants.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
Then you create major ethnic tension /conflict and face a situation of an extreme drop in education/productivity per capita (Because the country is an economic wreck and capital poor, you aren't going to be attracting the aspiring best and brightest who are seeking economic opportunity, like the situation we see in modern capital rich, high income per capita Europe).
Deleted member 109224
The first thing that comes to mind is Chiang and friends die in the Chinese Civil War before they can escape to Taiwan. Rather than give the island to the PRC, the US opts to return Taiwan to Japan - perhaps on the condition that Japan has to accept a number of Chinese refugees.
Likewise, have the US opt to not involve itself in the Korean war, but decide to hand over Jeju to Japan when South Korea is taken over by communists.
Japan + Jeju + Taiwan gets you to 152 million people.
No South Korea means more east asian investment goes to Japan too.
Increase Japan's population by ~20% and increase GDP per capita to 45,000 in 2017 (OTL it is 38,440 - in contrast to Canada with 45,000) then you have a country with a GDP that's probably around 1.4 or 1.5 times what it is today. That might seem like a lot, but New Zealand (who started way behind Japan) has a GDP per capita of 42,000.
Japan really needs to focus on agricultural reform (the agriculture lobby is strong) and not maintaining a full-employment model too. Japan has an incredibly low unemployment rate because it prioritizes employment levels over growth - resulting in companies often keeping companies that they shouldn't. If Japan were willing to accept a higher rate of unemployment they'd grow faster.
Could Japan be a conduit for finished goods to get to the USSR and around US trade restrictions? Let's say finished goods banned from export to the USSR are sent to Japan and then Japan marks them up and sells them to the Soviets via Vladivostok. That'd put a wedge between the US and Japan AND boost the Japanese economy. Then following the end of the Cold War lots of Russians, familiar with the wealth of Japan, move to Japan.
A good way to force a split might be to have Japan have strong economic ties with unsavory regimes. If the Japanese are trading with Than Shwe's Burma, Apartheid South Africa, Islamist Iran, Saddam's Iraq, etc in defiance of US pressure on these countries following the end of the Cold War, that could lead to a divide. Maybe the elites of these countries opt to send their students to Japanese universities and you end up with sizable expat communities in Tokyo strengthening trade ties and boosting population. T
One factor not paid attention to with regards to Japanese strength is just how much the company offshores its investment and manufacturing. Because the country is so anti-immigration Japanese companies with labor shortages often just set up factories in other countries. If you counted the involvement of Japanese companies overseas as part of the GDP of Japan, it'd be much larger.
Likewise, have the US opt to not involve itself in the Korean war, but decide to hand over Jeju to Japan when South Korea is taken over by communists.
Japan + Jeju + Taiwan gets you to 152 million people.
No South Korea means more east asian investment goes to Japan too.
Increase Japan's population by ~20% and increase GDP per capita to 45,000 in 2017 (OTL it is 38,440 - in contrast to Canada with 45,000) then you have a country with a GDP that's probably around 1.4 or 1.5 times what it is today. That might seem like a lot, but New Zealand (who started way behind Japan) has a GDP per capita of 42,000.
Japan really needs to focus on agricultural reform (the agriculture lobby is strong) and not maintaining a full-employment model too. Japan has an incredibly low unemployment rate because it prioritizes employment levels over growth - resulting in companies often keeping companies that they shouldn't. If Japan were willing to accept a higher rate of unemployment they'd grow faster.
Could Japan be a conduit for finished goods to get to the USSR and around US trade restrictions? Let's say finished goods banned from export to the USSR are sent to Japan and then Japan marks them up and sells them to the Soviets via Vladivostok. That'd put a wedge between the US and Japan AND boost the Japanese economy. Then following the end of the Cold War lots of Russians, familiar with the wealth of Japan, move to Japan.
A good way to force a split might be to have Japan have strong economic ties with unsavory regimes. If the Japanese are trading with Than Shwe's Burma, Apartheid South Africa, Islamist Iran, Saddam's Iraq, etc in defiance of US pressure on these countries following the end of the Cold War, that could lead to a divide. Maybe the elites of these countries opt to send their students to Japanese universities and you end up with sizable expat communities in Tokyo strengthening trade ties and boosting population. T
One factor not paid attention to with regards to Japanese strength is just how much the company offshores its investment and manufacturing. Because the country is so anti-immigration Japanese companies with labor shortages often just set up factories in other countries. If you counted the involvement of Japanese companies overseas as part of the GDP of Japan, it'd be much larger.
absolutely, i think something would have to go wrong on the mainland and Japan would have to be better imperial leaders for it to be a thing (or at least send more japanese people to taiwan).
Also like you said, Japan isn't one traditionally for immigration or integration (they still aren't). Like you said if American Troops, Taiwanese and some immigrants (i.e. for east asia, like Korea, China etc) settle down and assimilate (Koreans and Chinese may have an easier time with language, especially as Chinese basically uses the same characters as Japanese anyway) then it could happen.
Like you said though, easier said than done.
please explain why giving japan the exact same issues as malaysia will make them a superpower
Perhaps if the Cultural Revolution goes waaaay worse it could lead to a messy situation in China, I'm not sure how could China end up in a Warlord Era 2.0, but getting to that point would pretty much guarantee Japan being way more powerful than China.
And China too now...
The one-child policy aside from creating imbalanced gender-ratios, worked almost too well in getting the Chinese to not have kids that the government repealed it recently. But it's too late, the Chinese are probably one generation away from being in the exact same demographic situation Japan is.
Which is one of the reasons I believe the US will still be the foremost super-power in the coming years, as due to immigration it will not have any labor shortage by mid-century.
by handling it better. They aren't going to be a superpower with only 120 million people.
You'll need a government which can reign in the speculation and debt growth which has shackled the Japanese economy, as well as enforce business practices that prioritize workers and help nurture working class family growth. The next major point will be to keep Communist China isolated from America, Russia, and Western Europe. Some better luck with disaster preparations would help a lot.
All this should mean Moon Hotels and orbital power stations by 2020 at most.
All this should mean Moon Hotels and orbital power stations by 2020 at most.