AHC: make Hawaii a Japanese colony

Make Hawaii a Japanese colony, with a POD no earlier than the founding of the Republic of Hawaii. Kuykendall's A History of Hawaii states that the number of Japanese in Hawaii increased from 15,000 in 1893 to 25,000 in 1897. Would they be persuaded or forced to support any Japanese invasion effort? How long could the Republic hold out and would the US annex it while it was at war? Which side would the Chinese and Native Hawaiians support?
 
As a wild guess have the 19th Century Germans get their soldiers ashore & in control ahead of the rest of the pack? Then in 19114 Japan gets the jump on the Brits invading the Hawaiian archipelago.
 
Not sure how you can do this starting in the 1890s. When Hawaii became a "Republic", it was effectively a pro-US vassal state that demanded annexation by the United States. You would need to go back by a few decades and somehow make the USA less interested in conquering Hawaii.
 
Russia retains it's base/protectorate of Kauai and Niihau. Down the line, Japan seizes the islands from Russia. Japan now owns part of the Hawaiian Archipelago.
 
Russia retains it's base/protectorate of Kauai and Niihau. Down the line, Japan seizes the islands from Russia. Japan now owns part of the Hawaiian Archipelago.

I don't think Russia actually controlled any of the Hawaiian islands at any point, those bases they had (which were really small outposts of the Russian-American Company) were rather short lived.
 
So those bases were actually made without any imperial authorization, and thus were disbanded. But if they had received that imperial authority, they could’ve easily maintained control by supporting the same anti-kamehameha prince they did otl
 
What if the coup that puts them in American hands fails, and Hawaiii stays neutral until the Japanese take them? Or Ze Germans take over (somehow) and the Japanese seize them after WWI? Was there ever any German effort to gain some kind of influence over the isles?
 
I guess you all know about the ill-fated Inawaka-maru and her 14 sailors. This ship and her eight Japanese sailors shipwrecked to Hawaii in 1806. They lived on the island among locals during six months and were later repatriated (OTL).

Only two surviving castaways arrived back to Japanese soil in Nagasaki after a crazy journey. One of them committed suicide after violent interrogations. The only survivor, Hirahara Zenmatsu, wrote an account named Iban Hyoryu Kikokuroku Zenmatsu and was summoned by Asano Narikata, the Daimyō of Hiroshima. He died six months later of unknown reasons (OTL).

- https://www.davidhchau.com/single-p...su-The-First-Japanese-on-the-Sandwich-Islands
- https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/5014470.pdf
- http://faroutliers.blogspot.com/2005/03/hirahara-zenmatsu-first-japanese-in.html


I will use this event as a POD and more precisely. I will have Hiraha Zenmatsu summoned by the Shōgun, Tokugawa Ienari, after his discussion with the Lord of Hiroshima. It occurs one year after Genpaku Sugita (1733–1817) was granted an audience with Shōgun Ienari to explain differences between traditional medical knowledge and Western medical knowledge (OTL audience).

The Shōgun was immediately intrigued about this new land and by the description given by Hiraha Zenmatsu. The generosity of King Kamehameha I towards his subjects impressed him and Ienari takes the decision to send him an official missive in order to thank him and to establish formal relations between the two polities.

Secretly alarmed by the Japanese isolation and the technological knowledge of the Southern barbarians, the Shōgun was more interested by discovering the reality of their power in the world, reason why he sent this official embassy to Hawaii in 1808. The Shogunate embassy visits Hawaii and stays there during 1 year, departing in 1809. According to rumours, members of this embassy were later dispatched to United States in America, but disappeared.

Kamehameha I immediately understood the importance of Japan to counterbalance the growing power of Westerners and sent three embassies in 1810, 1812 and 1813. Relations gradually build up between Japan and Hawaii through trade and official letters. In 1813, Japanese traders and a permanent "governor" settle in Hawaii. Japanese envoys to Hawaii reveal the importance of western technological advance on Japan and the size of their domains around the world. Groups of Japanese traders/spies are successively dispatched to United States, Europe, the Papacy and China between 1813 and 1837 by Tokugawa Ienari. Only a few of them came back ...

His son, Tokugawa Ieyoshi, is quietly taught about the outside world and rangaku studies in Nagasaki during his youth. Soon after his accession to Shōgunhate (1837), the national army and navy, which had already been formed under Tokugawa command, needed to be strengthened (OTL). A decision is taken to allow the purchase of equipment abroad (OTL), using Hawaii as an intermediary. Equipment is purchased from the United States, United Kingdom, France and Prussia (OTL). Those weapons were analyzed and the truth was grim, foreign advisors were needed.

In 1820, sons of Japanese daiymos were sent to Nagasaki (OTL) and Hawaii (TTL) to learn more about barbarian languages and the customs of the outside world. They are later sent as students and recruiters to get foreign experts to Japan. From 1820’s to 1860’s, thousands of Oyatoi gaikokujin arrived to Japan, soon followed by military missions. Of course, it was nothing compared to the 1860’s military modernization with the Second French empire military mission (including the building of the Yosokua arsenal under Léonce Verney) or the British Tracey’s mission for the Navy (OTL).

Since 1815, Japanese official envoys have been slowly sent to the various polities of Oceania in order to open ports there to facilitate trade with Hawaii. Japanese fortified trading and supply outposts are built on islands leading to Hawaii and reinforced by military troops.

The envoys sent to Samoa, Polynesian kingdoms and as far as New Zealand bring good news about a general lack of Westerners on most of the islands. Groups of settlers and soldiers are later allowed/forced to migrate to those regions to establish trading links and to expand the network of Japanese colonies. In 1825, explorers are sent to Australia to explore its coast and to build trading posts. Those small Australian trading posts will boom in 1845 with the migration liberalization of Tokugawa Yoshinobu and the discovery of gold and other minerals by Japanese traders.

In 1843, King Kamehameha III asks the Shōgun Tokugawa Ieyoshi for help, after a British attempt to take power (this coup attempt occurred in OTL). Tokugawa soldiers are deployed to Hawaii and a large Japanese trading outpost is built in Pearl Harbor. A permission of Japanese emigration to Hawaii from the Edo Shogunate is granted by Tokugawa Ieyoshi in 1845. Since this year, Japanese migrants have flocked to this paradise island and to other islands on the way. Those settlers are known as the Gannenmono.

Under Kamehameha III, the "Great Mahele" is conducted, dividing the land among the king, his chiefs and Hawaiian commoners following the Japanese daimyos system in 1848. In OTL, it was modeled after the British system. In 1850, Alexander Liholiho and Lot Kamehameha depart for the United States, Europe and Japan on a mission to improve international relations OTL).

While traveling by train through the United States, the young princes contended with racial slurs and discrimination, treatment which forever prejudiced Alexander Liholiho especially against Americans (OTL). They will stay during four years in Japan from 1852 to 1855, when Kamehameha IV had to success his father. In 1852, Kamehameha III signs a secret agreement that in the event of the further spread of western imperialism, Hawaii will be protected by Japan (OTL signed with USA against the British). He asks his sons to stay in Japan to improve their education .

On June 3, 1853, US Commodore Matthew Perry arrives to Japan on a mission to force a treaty opening Japan to trade with USA. Ieyoshi dies on July 27, 1853, before the treaty could be concluded, of heart failure possibly brought on by heat stroke, and is succeeded by Tokugawa Yoshinobu. The choice of Tokugawa Yoshinobu, as a successor, can be explained by his reformist opinions and by the physical weakness of Ieyoshi’s official heir. In OTL, Tokugawa Yoshinobu wasn’t chosen.

During the 1850s, the U.S. import tariff on sugar from Hawaii was much higher than the import tariffs Hawaiians were charging the U.S., and Kamehameha III sought reciprocity. The monarch wished to lower U.S. tariffs and make Hawaiian sugar competitive with other foreign suppliers. In 1854, Kamehameha III proposed a policy of reciprocity between the countries, but the proposal died in the U.S. Senate (OTL).

Tokugawa Yoshinobu immediately decides to import Hawaiian sugar at a fair price, helping Hawaiian economy. A Japanese economic mission is sent to Hawaii to modernize the country infrastructures. Various roads and military forts are built and the tiny Hawaiian military is reformed by Japanese advisors. On 20 January 1855, Kamehameha IV asks the Japanese to gradually modify their outpost of Pearl Harbor into a military facility. The opening of a Japanese military permanent garnison in 1856 will seal this deal.

Immediately upon Yoshinobu's ascension as shōgun, major changes were initiated to continue the overall modernization of the country. It proved useful facing the Great earthquakes of 1854 and during the cholera crisis of 1858. A massive government overhaul was undertaken to initiate reforms that would definitely modify the Tokugawa government with the appointement of foreign advisors in his council during 1860’s.

King Kamehameha V sails again for Japan in 1863. A Japanese naval base is officially opened in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, to strengten the friendship between the two countries and to protect it from USA. It’s built by British and French engineers. Kamehameha V wanting Hawaiians to broaden their education beyond their nation, institutes a government-financed program to sponsor non-royal qualified students to be sent to Japan in order to further their education.

On November 9, 1867, Yoshinobu tendered his resignation to the Emperor and formally stepped down ten days later, returning governing power to the Emperor. He then withdrew from Kyoto to Osaka. Living a life in quiet retirement, Yoshinobu indulged in many hobbies, including oil painting, archery, hunting, photography, and cycling (OTL). A few minor uprisings follow the ascent of Emperor Meiji to the throne of a largely modernized Japan, yep no Boshin war.

In Hawaii, Kamehameha V did not name a successor. He died on December 11, 1872 while the preparations for his birthday celebration were underway (OTL). The Hawaiian royal council begs Japan to send a regent to avoid anarchy, as Lunalilo wished to introduce democracy on the island. Yep, he brought democracy to Hawaii in OTL. He is deposed a week after taking power by the Japanese troops of Pearl Harbor. King David Kalākaua is proclaimed a year later in 1874.

King David Kalākaua visited Japan during his round-the-world tour of 1881. During his visit, he proposed a marital alliance between the royal houses of Japan and Hawaii, wherein his niece (Princess Ka'iulani) would marry Prince Higashifushimi Yorihito (then styled Prince Yamashina Yorihito). It happened in OTL. This proposal is accepted ITTL.

In 1890, the Japanese population in Hawaii constituted 45% of Hawaii's population. In OTL, it was in 1920.

Following Japan's victory over China in the Sino-Japanese War (1894–1895), Japan broke through as an international power with a victory against Russia in Manchuria (north-eastern China) in the Russo-Japanese War of 1904–1905. Allied with Britain since the Anglo-Japanese Alliance signed in London on January 30, 1902, Japan joined the Allies in World War I, seizing German-held territory in China and the Pacific in the process, but otherwise remained largely out of the conflict (OTL).

After King Kalākaua’s death in 1890, Prince Yorihito was crowned King of Hawaii. As the couple remained childless, Hawaii was united to the Empire of Japan after a popular vote in 1922.
 
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