AHC Make Germany win WW1

The executions of irish rebels restart in ireland leading to a massive uprising. British troops move to supress the revolt and things get out of hand. High civillian casualties with pictures of dead women and children appearing in US newspapers. Diplomatic row ensues and US troops depart back for the US.
 
December 1917? Impossible they had already lost but just could not accept it - last chance of real victory was 1st Ypres in 1915.

No the only chance I feel is to give Britain assurances regarding Belgium (and stick to them), block France in the West (whose frontage with no Belgium) is half that of OTL and focus on Russia, 'knock them out' - let the AH crush the Serbs - and then send doves to the French

No British then probably no Italians or Ottomans for that matter

So therefore we are looking at a POD of pre-WW1 - but Dec 1917 beyond ASB ideas - nope.
 
The German offensives in 1918 had no chance at all to either force France out of the war, or to split the British and the French armies badly enough that the British evacuate and/ or France makes a separate peace?

If this happens the UK and USA would have to continue the war with no French or Russian participation, for not very obvious war aims.

Another intriguing possibility is that the Germans and Austro-Hungarians do not do the "last throw of the die" offensives, concentrate on improving their food situation, which should be doable now that they control the Ukraine though they would need different mobilization policies, and wait for the Allied and Associate Powers come to them. Another year of the Allies bashing their heads in the wall and a compromise peace more in the Central Powers favor should be doable. I suspect but am not by any means certain that this is what they should have tried.
 
Operation Michael takes Amiens and Georgette takes Hazebrouck as a followup, destroying the BEF's logistics and likely forcing them to evacuate the continent entirely. The full might of the German Army then falls upon the French, allowing them to take Paris or encircle it; either way, this knocks the French out of the war. With the Brits irrelevant for at least year and the French out, American entry becomes redundant. The Kaiserreich thus wins.
 
A ceasefire with favorable terms for Germany could work. It's not the absolute victory Germany would have desired but the Germans come out of the war dominating Eastern Europe and France is humiliated. However, Germany probably won't hold on to Belgium, the Entente wouldn't want to give them up, and Germany still loses all of its colonies.
 
Dec 17 is very, very late, but I think if the success of the original Michael offensive was aimed at the Channel rather than the 'reverse funnel' of central France it could have squeezed Britain out of its long term positions and caused chaos. I think this would be the closest thing to a game changer that Germany could come up with at that late stage, but I don't know if it would be enough to win the war.
 
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