AHC: Make Germany Cause WWIII

With a POD no earlier than 1943 and no later than 1990, create a scenario in which Germany or some form of it commits the initial act of what becomes World War III. Bonus points if you can do it without nuclear weapons being involved.
 

Tellus

Banned
By kindly allowing a POD as early as 1943, I think you open the door to numerous "separate peace" scenarios where a surviving Nazi regime might be in a position to launch such a war later. To be considered WW3 rather than a mere extension of WW2, I think its safe to say a good period of time would have to lapse, though.

Now I could go into more detail, starting with the 6th Army escaping Stalingrad and bloodying the Soviets with an early Kursk, but I'm rather reticent to write much as I know this board is particularly hostile to all "Nazis do better in any way whatsoever" PODs, so I'll let others write up and get their scenarios butchered and called ASB :p Still, my belief is that it would have been easy to get Stalin to agree to a separate peace, after all there were contacts to this effect as late as Kursk in OTL.

The western front would be more difficult, though if the 43 POD is early enough, you can technically remove the "unconditional surrender" doctrine too, which could have happened if the Germans seemed to have more momentum than they did in OTL. At that point, its not unthinkable that if Germany gets a favorable truce in the East, the Allies might consider the same in the West if the Nazis are willing to pull out from most of their western conquests.

No matter their gains, the Germans would then feel squeezed between two giant, militarized alliances who think they are evil. An arms race from day one is about a given. In order for the resumption of hostilities to be "WW3", I would say at least 5 to 10 years have to go by though. A good reason for the Germans to provoke such despite the amazing array of forces against them would likely be internal factors, such as economic or social collapse. Alternatively, strong evidence of mass-scale genocide in the Reich could prompt a resumption of hostilities which the West would still say was Germany's fault, if you consider this counts.

Most likely, the only way to prevent the use of nuclear weapons is to ensure all parties have them and make a clear deal not to use them first. Or maybe the war is initially solely German-Soviet and only the Americans have the bomb, presumably because the early Soviet separate peace made it harder for them to get close to, and spy on, the American program.
 
Have Valkirye succeed. With Hitler dead and the nazis in custody a military junta sues for peace. Even if they eventually accept unconditional surrender the idea of the army being betrayed by a cowardly leadership will fuel a bitter population. Butterfly away the cold war, leave to stew for a deccade or two and Germany is ripe for a return of the nazis looking to "have another go."
 
Ok, what if East Germany escalates some minor border incidents into a brief series of fatal shootouts, which snowballs into a greater conflict between NATO and WP?
 
In the early 1960s (PoD) a Nationalist movement begins a careful propaganda campaign aimed at reunifying Germany. They plan for a 20 year campaign. They are able to largely prevent the radical environmental and anti-nationalist movements from becoming significant power bases.

In the 1970s the movement, now controlling the Chancellor and the majority of the parliament, accuses the US of stationing nuclear and chemical weapons on German soil without the knowledge or consent of the government. The US denies these (false) charges, whereupon the Chancellor announces a withdrawal from NATO military command and demands the removal of all US forces and equipment from German soil. Politically, the US has no choice but to consent.

The German government announces it will be increasing its military readiness to compensate for the removal of the US forces and begins a massive buildup aimed at extending full mechanization and divisional organization to all ready reserve units and motorization with divisional organization for all reserve units.

Meanwhile, several 'popular' demonstrations in East Germany begin protesting the Soviet presence. These are being secretly organized by the Nationalist faction. They receive extensive media attention.

In the early 1980s West Germany demands a referendum under international observation for the people of East Germany on the subject of dissolving the East German government and reunifying Germany. This measure is heavily opposed by several NATO powers as well as, unsurprisingly, by East Germany and the USSR. West Germany issues a 72-hour ultimatum to begin talks and begins its well-drilled mobilization. Mobilization begins throughout Europe and the rest of NATO and the USSR. Three days later the first Leopards roll across the Inner German border...
 
seeing that the first couple posts more than fully covered anything that I was on the verge of contemplating, all I can think is to backhandedly second the last post by imagining a rogue East German regime starting WW3 without Moscow's permission or knowledge.

figure on Hoenecker(mis?) somehow tripping on a brick and removing himself from being able to lead, and one of his successors being a little off his or her rocker.

cue montage of flaming Trabants, etc.
 
Germany could have pushed for reunification in the 1950's. IIRC, the DDR suffered a number of riots and other protests that could have involved all four Allies in a nasty rugby scrum between German nationalists and various Allied occupation forces. Konrad Adenauer gets assassinated, WG government gets accused of selling out by various factions. Chaos ensues that puts Germany in the crosshairs of draconian occupation until 1970 or so.
Another possibility is a neutralist Germany (Willy Brandt and Erich Honecker decide to renounce both NATO and WP membership) that boots everyone off their turf in the 1970's.

BTW, the Nazis doing better than IOTL is hardly ASB. However, the consensus is that they were so outnumbered and suffered such tremendous losses by 1943-1944 that outside of ASB intervention they were doomed. It didn't help that Germany's economy didn't get on a full war footing until 1943, and had such horrible infighting between Himmler and most folks with a military clue which didn't help matters.
The Holocaust wasn't just an abhorrent crime against humanity, it tied up logistical resources that doomed their Eastern Front efforts to failure no matter who's in charge.
IMNSHO, the Nazis got very lucky with some bold strategic gambles and wound up biting off probably 10X more than they could chew or organize for victory. The inefficiencies and stupidities of the Nazi regime compounded the problems the troops faced on the ground the longer the war dragged on.
For the Nazis to do better than OTL, you'd have to keep Russia quiet until the UK's been beaten senseless and diplomatically keep the US from getting into the European War, and convince conquered Europeans that Germany's on a crusade to crush Communism everyone can join and share in the glory.
 
Stalin Note of sorts

Idea 1 - Perhaps instead of Stalin offering west germany the chance to unify with east germany and form an independent block, have president Truman offer east germany the chance to join up with a western allied german nation. Lets say the DDR accepts, but Stalin can't let his german puppet state break loose because that would only give other soviet occupied nations ideas, so he decides to crush this now western allied german state.

Idea 2 - have west germany accept the stalin note, and an independent German nation is not in central europe. so lets say the germanies unify by 1951, and the cold war cools down for a few years until about 1965 when the German govt decides to have a go at annexing Austria back into the Reich. Both sides (east and west) condemn this invasion and decide to once again end German ambitions in europe.

Wishing you well, his majesty,
The Scandinavian Emperor
 
In the early 1960s (PoD) a Nationalist movement begins a careful propaganda campaign aimed at reunifying Germany. They plan for a 20 year campaign. They are able to largely prevent the radical environmental and anti-nationalist movements from becoming significant power bases.

In the 1970s the movement, now controlling the Chancellor and the majority of the parliament, accuses the US of stationing nuclear and chemical weapons on German soil without the knowledge or consent of the government. The US denies these (false) charges, whereupon the Chancellor announces a withdrawal from NATO military command and demands the removal of all US forces and equipment from German soil. Politically, the US has no choice but to consent.

The German government announces it will be increasing its military readiness to compensate for the removal of the US forces and begins a massive buildup aimed at extending full mechanization and divisional organization to all ready reserve units and motorization with divisional organization for all reserve units.

Meanwhile, several 'popular' demonstrations in East Germany begin protesting the Soviet presence. These are being secretly organized by the Nationalist faction. They receive extensive media attention.

In the early 1980s West Germany demands a referendum under international observation for the people of East Germany on the subject of dissolving the East German government and reunifying Germany. This measure is heavily opposed by several NATO powers as well as, unsurprisingly, by East Germany and the USSR. West Germany issues a 72-hour ultimatum to begin talks and begins its well-drilled mobilization. Mobilization begins throughout Europe and the rest of NATO and the USSR. Three days later the first Leopards roll across the Inner German border...

That's TL-grade shit right there.
 
In the early 1960s (PoD) a Nationalist movement begins a careful propaganda campaign aimed at reunifying Germany. They plan for a 20 year campaign. They are able to largely prevent the radical environmental and anti-nationalist movements from becoming significant power bases.

In the 1970s the movement, now controlling the Chancellor and the majority of the parliament, accuses the US of stationing nuclear and chemical weapons on German soil without the knowledge or consent of the government. The US denies these (false) charges, whereupon the Chancellor announces a withdrawal from NATO military command and demands the removal of all US forces and equipment from German soil. Politically, the US has no choice but to consent.

The German government announces it will be increasing its military readiness to compensate for the removal of the US forces and begins a massive buildup aimed at extending full mechanization and divisional organization to all ready reserve units and motorization with divisional organization for all reserve units.

Meanwhile, several 'popular' demonstrations in East Germany begin protesting the Soviet presence. These are being secretly organized by the Nationalist faction. They receive extensive media attention.

In the early 1980s West Germany demands a referendum under international observation for the people of East Germany on the subject of dissolving the East German government and reunifying Germany. This measure is heavily opposed by several NATO powers as well as, unsurprisingly, by East Germany and the USSR. West Germany issues a 72-hour ultimatum to begin talks and begins its well-drilled mobilization. Mobilization begins throughout Europe and the rest of NATO and the USSR. Three days later the first Leopards roll across the Inner German border...

I could see this happening. It would make a great story. But the West German leadership would have to be insane to believe they could drive the Soviets out with military force. What will they do when the Russians use a few tactical nukes?
 
I could see this happening. It would make a great story. But the West German leadership would have to be insane to believe they could drive the Soviets out with military force. What will they do when the Russians use a few tactical nukes?

Hey, the OP just wanted them to start WWIII, nothing was mentioned about winning. They'd believe that they can use surprise and mechanized attacks to quickly grab East Germany and sue for peace.

Insane? Fairly. Unprecedentedly so? Nope.
 
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