AHC: Make Germany Abandon the "Schlieffen" Plan

I understand that, of course. What I mean is, although particular CofS's have their individual views, the plan selected must be influenced by factors other than mere personal preference. What data passing across Moltke's desk would be sufficient to convince even him that the plan for attack in the west needed to be abandoned?

"Answer Hazy Ask Again Later."

We really don't have access to everything that Moltke the younger did to shape his decisions and can only guess. My admittedly WAG is that after 1910 the Germans become convinced that the Austro-Hungarian military can't be trusted at all and they didn't think much to start. So to help AH requires a major deployment east. That could work.

The military to be given some firm direction from the civilian leadership I.E. Wilhelm has to put his foot down or be prompted by the Chancellor and be told the diplomatic costs of going through Belgium would be too high. Military expected both England and Belgium to be hostile in any war.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
AFAIK the french had at least some understanding of the S-plan and the troop deployment plans of the germans.

Did the germans know anything at all and then how much of the french plans (Plan XVI as well as Plan XVII) ?

The germans weren't very keen on the services of intelligence services ("A german/prussian officer doesn't spies. It's unhonorable !"). And military intelligence or as it was more commonly named that time : espionage :D was on every side far from what it is today. The Brits and Russsians had some experience due to their quarrels in middle and central asia. The french had their "Deuxieme Bureau", was there anything comparable in germany ?

If so, then maybe some impressive reports of their spys might have made an impact on germen planning.
 

Deleted member 1487

AFAIK the french had at least some understanding of the S-plan and the troop deployment plans of the germans.

Did the germans know anything at all and then how much of the french plans (Plan XVI as well as Plan XVII) ?

The germans weren't very keen on the services of intelligence services ("A german/prussian officer doesn't spies. It's unhonorable !"). And military intelligence or as it was more commonly named that time : espionage :D was on every side far from what it is today. The Brits and Russsians had some experience due to their quarrels in middle and central asia. The french had their "Deuxieme Bureau", was there anything comparable in germany ?

If so, then maybe some impressive reports of their spys might have made an impact on germen planning.
Germany had a very effective spy network in Europe. There were the military intelligence services and foreign office ones. There was no ideological opposition to spying in WW1.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:World_War_I_spies_for_Germany
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mata_Hari
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm_Wassmuss
 

NoMommsen

Donor
THX for that info, esp. working through the first link is interesting (as always yo're improving my knowlegde and understanding greatly :D).

Then perhaps a maybe a bit overestimating report in 1913/14 of french forces for an attack in A-L (perhaps mainly via Mülhausen/Mulhouse ?) or in direction of the Saar might changes minds and plans in Berlin.

... in the direction of Saar would look more frightening I would assume :
1st : it aims at prussian territory :p
2nd : it would threaten the Ruhr-region, THE weapons-forge of the Reich
3rd : it would threaten to cut off forces and supply-line employed in and for Belgium (if following S-plan)
 
THX for that info, esp. working through the first link is interesting (as always yo're improving my knowlegde and understanding greatly :D).

Then perhaps a maybe a bit overestimating report in 1913/14 of french forces for an attack in A-L (perhaps mainly via Mülhausen/Mulhouse ?) or in direction of the Saar might changes minds and plans in Berlin.

... in the direction of Saar would look more frightening I would assume :
1st : it aims at prussian territory :p
2nd : it would threaten the Ruhr-region, THE weapons-forge of the Reich
3rd : it would threaten to cut off forces and supply-line employed in and for Belgium (if following S-plan)


That wouldn't have any effect on the Germans plans, their attitude was every French soldier in A-L was one less to stop the great wheel through Belgium.

No what you want is a report of increased speed of Russian mobilization and or reports of even more problems with A-H. That would draw the Germans attention East.

Everyone had a fairly good idea of everyone else general intentions and capabilities.

Michael
 
That wouldn't have any effect on the Germans plans, their attitude was every French soldier in A-L was one less to stop the great wheel through Belgium.

No what you want is a report of increased speed of Russian mobilization and or reports of even more problems with A-H. That would draw the Germans attention East.

Everyone had a fairly good idea of everyone else general intentions and capabilities.

Michael

This was part of my thinking. The existing plan was predicated on a comparatively slow Russian mobilization. OTL the Germans were a bit nonplussed with Russia's speed (they didn't realize at first the cost to Rennenkamp's and Samsonov's effectiveness).

So, if prewar they get a better (or even slightly inflated) impression of Russian mobilization speed, one key support for the "Schlieffen" plan is knocked away.

Maybe this has a knock-on effect: it prompts them to study more closely the conditions of their planned attack on France, and they don't like what they find about their own logistics, force ratios, French capacity for redeployment, etc.
 
One of the things keep bringing up again and again is, "The Germans clearly had no idea that the logistics sucked going into Belgium..."

Sorry thats just wrong, the Germans knew very well of the problems with the movement through Belgium. The decided that the advantages simply out weighed the negatives. The German General Staff had full access to roads, railroads, etc that we 100+ years later do not. It was an all out lunge for the throat on the Germans part if it worked the French collapse, in theory, and the nasty problem of the over all bad ratio of economic weight is side stepped. The German - Prussian mindset is born of Friedrich the Greats Campaigns, high risk /high yield plans and max aggression.

Logistic problems alone are going to stop the Germans. A core assumption of the Russians taking a long time to mobilize in the east being under cut? Yah that works. A-H not being able to stand? That could too.

If you want a POD in the west you need a stronger Belgium some how, that would result in a slow German advance and screws up the entire time table of the advance.

Michael
 
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