Failure begets failure begets defeat.

Clinton might have failed to accomplish anything in the key 1993-1994 period. The 1993 budget passed by a the narrowest of margins.

Had that budget failed the economy might have been marginally worse. But more importantly Bill Clinton looks incompetent-like someone who can't actually govern. He's a President who couldn't convince his own party to support him in Congress.

Then have someone other than Newt Gingrich be Speaker-and have the Republicans be perceived as the victors of any fight between the President and Congress. That would deny Clinton the opportunity to rebuild his image in 1995.

Even with all that the economy would probably have saved Bill Clinton. But Dole would have had a much stronger argument presenting himself as the competent alternative to Clinton.


If you add a scandal to that Clinton just might lose despite his advantage.

A marginally weaker economy-a strong perception of incompetence-a lack of someone like Gingrich to position himself against and a sex scandal might be enough of a perfect storm to sink Bill Clinton in 1996.
 
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