AHC- make Baja California more populous than Florida by the present day

Zachariah

Banned
Bonus points if you can make Baja California more populous than OTL's Florida. So, what do you think? Can you pull it off?
 
Needs more water, realistically.

Alternately, it's a 'Siberian gulag' area, where a continent wide oppressive government imprisons all its foes.

Edit:
Good grief, it might actually be possible.
The Mexican state of Baja California currently has a population of 3.155 million, apparently, as 2010.
Florida's population in 1920 was less than a million.

OTL, Florida's population (along with the rest of the Sunbelt) grew massively (currently over 20M) with air conditioning.
While I really don't suppose that Baja California's growth has had that impetuous.

So... Have personal air conditioners not be a thing, have a couple of malaria./yellow fever scares, a bad hurricane or two, and Florida could get the reputation of a tropical hell-hole, and its population might stay below 3M by today.
 
Needs more water, realistically.

An alternative is if Frank Shuman or someone like him gets involved in Baja California. It is borderline Post-1900, but say a Mexican politician gets excited by his work, especially the idea of boiling water using the sun, it could start a desalination project. It isn't the most economical thing, but establishing primitive large-scale desalination would be a way to improve things. Apart from creating a tech hub in the area (solar and desalination), which would likely increase the population through immigration - it also provides vast quantities of water.

I like the idea of Shuman being a small research site turned research hub. Perhaps set up near here? The coast is pretty flat, and pretty central.

It isn't the cheapest way, but on top of providing more water, it can be used to create artificial lakes throughout the mountains, and transform the region.
 
Maybe have the Americans roll in and annex the place. When statehood rolls around they've still got San Diego. In the latter half of the 20th century the area around La Paz and Cabo become a major tourist hub. The Baja highway becomes a major tourist attraction becomes a major tourist attraction to boot. Then you've just got to make Florida a little less attractive.
 
Between the Mexican War and annexation of California, Baja comes along and is part of the "California Territory", which becomes two states - Upper California which begins around Los Angeles, and Lower California which starts south of LA, includes San Diego and Baja. The US Navy has a small base at Cabo San Lucas which might expand during the Civil War. In the 1870s and 1880s with railroad expansion in the west, including the southern transcontinental line, you'd see a line built from San Diego south to Cabo San Lucas to support the facilities there to start. After the Spanish American War with the annexation of the PI and various Spanish Pacific Islands, the annexation of Hawaii, and the US part of Samoa, the navy base at cabo becomes more important as the USA now has a Pacific Empire.With US ownership of Baja/"Lower California" and the rail line, you can certainly see an increase in population and tourist potential than OTL. However compared to Florida Baja California is smaller, until well in to the 20th century it is further away from large population centers (the large California population is a post WWII development), and water is a huge problem
 

Saphroneth

Banned
I have an alternative plan to fulfil the first version of the challenge, though not the bonus.

Bump up global warming by 2-3 decades, by having China get things together in the mid-19th century and get industrializing earlier. By the time Florida becomes somewhere you could keep a lot of people due to air con, it's so frequently hit by hurricanes that building a densely populated city there seems absurd.

Meanwhile, evaporation from the sea around Baja California increases markedly and the mountains catch some of the rain, resulting in a wetter environment there. As it's further north than a lot of Mexico it's somewhat cooler, and as such the population heads there more.
 

Zachariah

Banned
BTW, by Baja California, I'm talking about the entire peninsula, including Baja California Sur- might that make things a little bit less challenging? After all, the area of both present day states of Baja California comes up to 144,022 sq.km; for comparison, Florida's is 170,304 sq.km. So it's not that much smaller.
 
Last edited:
If some alien space bats could flip them geographically so that Baja California is on the East coast and Florida on the West, it could be possible. As it is, it's hard because there's just not as many people in the western half of North America.
 
The US owning it would help - it's always been too on the frontier for Mexico to pay it much mind.

From there? Depending on where we divide California compared to OTL, our task gets easier or harder.

Naval bases and scenic tourism will help - as will the number of writers fascinated by the place, from Ernest Hemingway to Peter Benchley.
 

Zachariah

Banned
Of arid deserts and waterless mountains. It's like saying that Saudi Arabia could have more people than Egypt.
I'd say that it's more like saying that New South Wales could have more people than New Guinea. Can't it, seeing as how it does IOTL? Tropical mangrove swamps aren't exactly the most hospitable environment either, you know.
 
I'd say that it's more like saying that New South Wales could have more people than New Guinea. Can't it, seeing as how it does IOTL? Tropical mangrove swamps aren't exactly the most hospitable environment either, you know.

For starters, NSW has less people than the island of New Guinea.

Second, there is sufficient water in NSW. Not so with Baja California outside of the northwest corner close to San Diego. You're going to need a lot of desalination plants of you want to provide the necessary water to support a population.
 
Coming up with an idea that doesn't involve US annexation, I would think that a more stable Mexico shortly after independence that is then able to not be impeded so much in establishing a prescence in the north, would by consequence make Baja be paid more attention, especially if the Mexicali valley becomes a mid-point travel area betwen Alta California and the rest of the country. Of course, there's still the problem of stuff like the climate and stuff (wouldn't I know, I live in Baja, haha), but that's all I have so far for a first step. At least, my way of doing it.
 

Zachariah

Banned
For starters, NSW has less people than the island of New Guinea.

Second, there is sufficient water in NSW. Not so with Baja California outside of the northwest corner close to San Diego. You're going to need a lot of desalination plants of you want to provide the necessary water to support a population.
Well, they're already among the world's largest extractors and exporters of sea salts IOTL, so the potential's there to put that desalinated water to good use supporting a larger population. Of course, evaporation plants aren't great for water supply, but if they were to have built desalination plants instead of the world's largest evaporation salt-works, then higher population densities could be very easily attainable.
 
1. William Walker gets his Republic of Sonora

2. Sonora develops as partial US satellite but also becomes home for fleeing Mexicans under Juarez escaping Mexican Empire, acquiring Chihuahua in the process

3. Playing both powers off of one another the region of Baja is left to languish until early 1880s

4. Ironically notes from Thomas Jefferson inspire development of solar desalinization systems that make fresh water cheap and easily available

5. Development of these systems and their isolated location in a (prosperous) Third World nation encourage commercial development of those who want a presence in the Americas but not to be headquartered in the United States

6. Development of the solar desalinization (and soon after power) systems allows for widespread production of salt, wine, and agriculture.

7. Exploration of minerals and materials by
various international firms allows the development of a means of purifying titanium in the early 1910s via the Hernandez process and, along with other research in the area, leads to development of a chemistry/material science focus in the National University System (Sistema Nacional de Universidades or SNU).

8. Using it's edge in materials science research and the inherent paranoia of various other nations, the Republic of Sonora develops advanced aerospace airframes and other useful projects while advancing in naval design (in this case making their fishing industry much more efficient), aircraft engines, industrialization, and a host of other areas.

9. Offering to absorb 'talented' refugees from Europe and incurring more than a few diplomatic slaps when names like Manfred von Ardenne and Kurt Tank appeared on citizenship applications.

10. Profiting from World War developments and determined to try to keep from being an American satellite, the Sonorans build the first of two dams, this one between just north of Bahia de Los Angeles and Punta Cheques via Isla Tiburon and Isla Angel de la Guardia. Playing the USA and USSR off of each other the nation accepts different forms of aid from both and declares itself neutral in the emerging Cold War.

11. Another dam begins a very gradual construction at Puerto Augusto Verde and the delta of the Rio Guerre. This one is much more gradual and designed to allow silt to accumulate gradually over time as three large bridges form the beginnings of a backbone for the super-dam.

12. Using the drained land from the Gulf of California combined with improved solar energy and desalinization techniques, the former Gulf gradually becomes an agricultural boon focusing on oranges, pineapples, and vegetables. Water from the sea is used to create hydroelectricity for export and rapidly desalinated for domestic use and sale to an ever-drier US California.

13. When a suspected coup attempt has indications of US involvement in 1971 the Republic and its (actually somewhat benevolent yet hereditary) plutocracy shut off water and electricity exports for three days. NO more coup attempts are reported.

14. Sonora and Baja continue to develop but with more focus on microelectronics and with tax structures favoring research and development. Using the environmental movement and influence in California to their advantage they negotiate very favorable trade terms with the US, allowing third parties to build factories there for wages at half the rate but all the benefit of being on US soil.

15. By 2000 Baja California has a population of over 20 million and is a leader in export manufacturing with a self-sufficient food production base. Sonora is a world leader in material science and agricultural engineering along with desalinization, ironically fostering cooperation with a formerly hostile Israel.

16. By 2015 the standard of living in Sonora exceeds that of the seven poorest US states and it's social support system is the envy of the Western Hemisphere for over 30 years. As a result enough retiring Americans move there to boost the population of the entire (expanded) peninsula to over 30 million.
 
That shouldn't be to hard, its pretty much a buggy swamp.

Florida will still open up somewhat as Flagler opens his railway and agriculture develops. Take away the railroad and Florida will take longer to develop. Bring in the latest variety of Asian tiger mosquito earlier or worse mosquito-borne illnesses and the retardation worsens.
 
P.O.D. 1890: no significant numbers of white folks move to the Los Angeles Basin. The LA Basin remains a dust bowl. The Colorado River is never over-subscribed and fresh water continues flowing into the Gulf of Baja. Mexicans dam and canalize that water to irrigate farms in Baja.
The Baja Peninsula becomes a de facto American Protectorate. No American soldiers are based in Baja, but Baja also misses predations of the corrupt politicians who plague mainland Mexico.
 
Top