AHC: Make Austria-Hungary Survive

Any POD. Post 1900 is preferable. What does it take for the Austro-Hungarian Empire to remain a European power into the 1940's? "European power" defined as at least more powerful than Italy OTL.
 
Have the CP do well in the opening moves of WW1; AH send B-staffel to the Russian Front immediately and hold more ground in the initial Russian invasion, have German win the Race to the Sea. The CP wins WW1, AH undertakes some political liberalism within the existing Imperial structure such as extending franchise and giving the parliament some more powers.

Whammo, AH survives and is more powerful than Italy!
 
Have the CP do well in the opening moves of WW1; AH send B-staffel to the Russian Front immediately and hold more ground in the initial Russian invasion, have German win the Race to the Sea. The CP wins WW1, AH undertakes some political liberalism within the existing Imperial structure such as extending franchise and giving the parliament some more powers.

Whammo, AH survives and is more powerful than Italy!

Would such liberalism not simply hasten the decline of the Empire? Each ethnic group can now make enemies of each other, not just the Habsburgs.
 
Would such liberalism not simply hasten the decline of the Empire? Each ethnic group can now make enemies of each other, not just the Habsburgs.

I'm no expert on the AH political structure, I know more about the German structure, so I don't know what form such political concessions to the millions of men who've just proved their loyalty to the Empire by their service in the Army and Navy would take. I'd suggest that changes which strengthen the Empire as a whole, rather than its constituent components, would be strengthened rather than at lower levels of government which might encourage centrifugal tendencies.
 
In my opinion it could survive if WW1 starts later and as a result the Empire federalizes like was planned by Popovici and advocated by Franz Ferdinand. That way A-H, or the VSGO, is able to survive.
 
WWI doesn't happen. Without WWI, none of the ethnicities within the Empire would have had the impetus to leave. Even if they win WWI, if their victory is after a prolonged period of warfare, the system would be under tremendous strain. So, either WWI doesn't happen, or it ends quickly and in victory for A-H.

If the Empire does manage to federalize, it would do so against the Hungarians, which might take a while, so... basically the same thing as everyone else in this thread has said thus far.
 
Any POD. Post 1900 is preferable. What does it take for the Austro-Hungarian Empire to remain a European power into the 1940's? "European power" defined as at least more powerful than Italy OTL.

Well if you could United States of Greater Austria as Austria-Hungary, then I think a good position for them to be in, is Austria-Hungary wins ww1, get's very large compensations for the war, then after they become federalist, then fight a civil war against the Hungarians.

You could also have them have no WW1, and Franz Ferdinand would Liberalize the empire, which would make it a lot better, or you could get the Schlieffen plan to work out, and Austria-Hungary wins the war.
 
Would such liberalism not simply hasten the decline of the Empire? Each ethnic group can now make enemies of each other, not just the Habsburgs.

Divide and Conquer is a classic strategy for getting the minorities to oppress one another. It gives them a (rational) target for their hate and easily identifiable source of more local troubles, which keeps blame from funneling up to the Dynasty, while the status of "Loyal Minority" becomes a grace with tangible benefit in the form of regional concessions which is rewarded from above for good behavior, rather than given away or demanded as a sign of weakness/awarding defiance, by having the centeral government weigh in and tilt the balance in provencial power struggles.
 
The United States of Austria scheme had its merits, but regional identity politics in the face of the military failure of the central government in WWI was the key to the dissolution of the A-H Empire.

The hardcore characters who would argue for Central Power victory as the best way, or at least the easiest way, around this problem, overlook the consequences of such a victory: more territories, and thus more small and fragmented nationalities to absorb, and STILL, the evolving pattern of Marxian socialism scattered across the continent, and the need to rebuild, but who in the Central Powers would advocate for the expense of rebuilding a continent damaged and burnt from Belgium to Petrograd? No, not a Russian socialist revolution, but a dozen socialist revolutions, all across Europe. A wildly different world!
 

PhilippeO

Banned
But Tito's Yugoslavia also collapsed ,and without external war. it might simply impossible for multi-ethnic Central European nations to survive.
 
A US of AH seems like a big leap from the AH Empire, particularly when there are likely other less drastic steps that could be taken to reform the political structure to extend its life.

As for annexation, there were arguments about the amount of Poland to be annexed in order to achieve a mix of security and internal harmony. I doubt AH would unthinkingly just gulp down as much conquered as possible and take on foreseeable problems.
 

Redbeard

Banned
Any scenario that keeps the KuK Armee intact, no matter who wins the war, will drastically increase the chances of A-H surviving.

Until the KuK armee dissolved in OTL October 1918 the independence movements in various parts of the Empire were still weak, but after the dissolution of the army they could utilise the power vacuum to unopposed declare independence.

I’m not saying it would be a walk in the park, more like the situation in Germany 1918-19. From this also follows that the Habsburgs won’t necessarily stay in power but it is also my impression that they never were blamed (or ridiculed) as much for the war as the Kaiser (Wilhelm) was – fair or not. The KuK Army, if intact, would also see the Habsburgs as the best legitimization for itself staying alive.

Inside a Habsburg heir still being on top of the cake you could imagine many changes, from a federal constitutional Monarchy to a federal republic to a rump A-H state – republic or Monarchy. I think a republic containing the majority of pre-war A-H is unlikely, simply doesn’t have the legitimacy, and anyway the biggest opposition factor probably is Hungary. The Hungarians for centuries had insisted on being “very special” and a true federalism uniting Germans and Slavs probably would need an A-H civil war defeating the Hungarians.
 
For a different approach, have the USA not join WWI and/or Woodrow Wilson be less prominent in the peace negotiations. The other members of the Entente, i.e. the UK and France, didn't really care about Austria-Hungary, not seeing them as a threat in the same way as they saw the Germans, and the Italians were only concerned with gaining South Tyrol and Trieste. So instead of partitioning the Austro-Hungarian Empire out right, the Entente simply 'trims' the empire, i.e. giving South Tyrol and Trieste to Italy, Galicia to Poland and Bosnia and Herzegovina to Serbia, in the Treaty of Versailles. Result, Austro-Hungarian Empire survives, albeit in a reduced form.
 
The key is to win the war. Austria wont go annexing territories left and right. See OTL Bosnia wasnt integrated and the Peace threaty with Romania during the war - only very minor border adjustments.

I dont believe in the federalization of the empire by FF as a solution for long term survival. FF was not the patient negotiator that could have pulled it of without offending the most important nationalities. His plans would alienate not only the hungarians but the czech as well.

IMO for the long time survival of Austria you need the support of its 4 most important nations: Germans, Hungarians, Czech, Croatians. These are the 4 nations inside the empire with numbers, money and influence and without a strong wish to leave, to have/join their own independent national state. So they are the ones you have to build a surviving Austrian Empire upon. The rest either has a state across the border they want to join (romanians, serbs, italians), or want their own independent state (polish). The numerically smaller nations without strong and influencial elites - slovenians and slovakians - can be pretty much ignored at first and maybe integrated later - the rest can reach an agreement on their expense.
For this you have to resolve the situation between the czech and germans - hard to do and the croatians and hungarian - much easier to do.
 
For the long time survival of Austria you need the support of its 4 most important nations: Germans, Hungarians, Czech, Croatians. These are the 4 nations inside the empire with numbers, money and influence and without a strong wish to leave, to have/join their own independent national state. So they are the ones you have to build a surviving Austrian Empire upon. The rest either has a state across the border they want to join (romanians, serbs, italians), or want their own independent state (polish). The numerically smaller nations without strong and influencial elites - slovenians and slovakians - can be pretty much ignored at first and maybe integrated later - the rest can reach an agreement on their expense.
For this you have to resolve the situation between the czech and germans - hard to do and the croatians and hungarian - much easier to do.
Does OP mean that A-H could not be broken apart? If breaking apart A-H was counted as survival, a commonwealth of independent states could be a solution? In essence, states of Czech republic, slovakia, hungary, slovenia, croatia would be members with titular Habsburg head in Budapest. Austria became a role of Russia in the CIS.
 
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TruthfulPanda

Gone Fishin'
IMO for the long time survival of Austria you need the support of its 4 most important nations: Germans, Hungarians, Czech, Croatians. These are the 4 nations inside the empire with numbers, money and influence and without a strong wish to leave, to have/join their own independent national state. So they are the ones you have to build a surviving Austrian Empire upon. The rest either has a state across the border they want to join (romanians, serbs, italians), or want their own independent state (polish). The numerically smaller nations without strong and influencial elites - slovenians and slovakians - can be pretty much ignored at first and maybe integrated later - the rest can reach an agreement on their expense.
This post IMO says all there is to be said.
If the A-H contracts to a core without Galicia and makes the Czechs (and Croats) happy, then you have 12+10+8+2=32M people (Germans, Hungarians. Czechs and Croats) out of 45M - or three fourths - nailed to the mast flying the Schwarz-Gelb Habsburg flag ...
 
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