OK... I think I've got an idea.
- The border wars between Japan and USSR escalate, and Japan is massively beaten by Soviet forces. Japanese are entirely kicked out of the Chinese mainland.
- The Battle of France plays out entirely differently. France decides to fight on. Lots more forces from France and the Benelux countries manage to escape. The grand fuel supplies of France light up in a massive fire before Germany can get their hands on them. Vichy France is never formed.
- As a result of greater forces of various government-in-exiles, these forces are put under single military control, for greater ease.
- Italy is overall more competent, and decides to target Yugoslavia before Greece. Yugoslavia is beaten with relative ease. Greece is next on the list.
- As German intervention in the Balkans never happen, Barbarossa starts in May instead. Soviet forces are actually ready for invasion TTL, and German forces fail to even take Smolensk. That coupled with no French fuel supplies means Germany is royally boned at this point.
- The North African campaign takes place without German aid to Italy since they have their hands full. Italy is overall more competent, but has to fight on two fronts since there is no Vichy France. Surrendered Italian forces form the nucleus of Free Italy.
- Since Japan no longer has to fight the Sino-Japanese War and doesn't have the crucial strategical location of Indochina, they swallow the bitter pill and seek rapproachment with the US. The US is on the tip of declaring war on Germany throughout, but the war remains undeclared.
- The war ends with the whole of Germany occupied by Soviet forces, and Finland, Austria, Denmark, Yugoslavia, Greece and Albania in the Warsaw pact.
- Due to the overall greater threat of the USSR, and since the US is not in a military alliance, the new European Union foged during the war gets direct incentive from Allied countries in Europe to become a real federation.