AHC: Majority Gov't but PM loses seat

Create a scenario in the U.K. where the incumbent Prime Minister's party wins a majority at a general election but loses his own seat. What happens next?
 
Create a scenario in the U.K. where the incumbent Prime Minister's party wins a majority at a general election but he loses his own seat. What happens next.

The way Westminster politics works is that party leaders are almost always in really really Safe Seats, so for the leader to lose it would require the party to collapse in the election. It just wouldn't happen.

But in the extraordinary case that it did (which is near-ASB under most scenarios), the leader's credibility would be pretty shattered. They probably would not be leader for much long afterwards, as someone has to turn up at PMQs.

Or, something similar to Patrick Gordon Walker would occur.
 
easiest scenario at the moment would be if Labour in 2010 elected a Scottish leader, who would then lose his/her seat in 2015
 
easiest scenario at the moment would be if Labour in 2010 elected a Scottish leader, who would then lose his/her seat in 2015

I don't think that a Scottish Labour Leader would have as nearly as many problems with Scottish Nationalism as Ed has over the last 5 years.
 
I don't think that a Scottish Labour Leader would have as nearly as many problems with Scottish Nationalism as Ed has over the last 5 years.
Conversely, they might have even more problems if they're perceived as being a stooge for England.
 
I don't think that a Scottish Labour Leader would have as nearly as many problems with Scottish Nationalism as Ed has over the last 5 years.

not as many, but still a lot of problems
the SNP would still have won 19 seats, the Labour leader's seat could have been one of those
 

GarethC

Donor
My first guess was a proto-UKIPesque challenge to Major in 1992, but boy he's got a big majority there. That's probably not going to work.

At a stretch:
Brown leaves politics to spend more time with his family after the Sun gloatingly reveals his son's cystic fibrosis. He is succeeded as Chancellor by Ed Balls.

Continued pressure brings Blair to still leave Number 10 as planned, and Balls wangles victory in the leadership contest to follow (that feels like a stretch, mind).

When the expenses scandal breaks, the Balls/Cooper dance of who lives where to maximise the money they can claim for their houses is one of the highlights of the piece, and one that never really goes away after a particularly funny HIGNFY.

Labour takes an unrelentingly populist approach to the 2010 election, with big pushes on how the economy was carefully managed through the credit crunch and on a presumed Tory privatisation of the NHS. Tougher stances on immigration and no Arlene Duffy gaffe mean that Labour clings desperately on to a 2 seat majority... but Balls is defeated by a narrow margin.
 
In Canada, if the Leader of one of the main parliamentary parties loses their seat, they are immediately parachuted into a safe riding that's guaranteed to elect them.

http://www.parl.gc.ca/ParlInfo/Compilations/ElectionsAndRidings/TriviaPrimeMinisters.aspx?Language=E#9 said:
The Rt. Hon. William Lyon Mackenzie King, while Prime Minister from December 29, 1921 to June 28, 1926, lost his York North, Ontario seat in the October 29, 1925 general election. King did not resign from office and was re-elected to the House of Commons in a February 15, 1926 by-election for the riding of Prince Albert, Saskatchewan.

...

The Rt. Hon. William Lyon Mackenzie King, while Prime Minister from October 23, 1935 to November 14, 1948, lost his Prince Albert, Saskatchewan seat in the June 11, 1945 general election. King did not resign from office and was re-elected to the House of Commons in an August 6, 1945 by-election for the riding of Glengarry, Ontario.

Oddly, the source cited there says 5 times a PM has lost his seat, but only lists 4 (the 2 Mackenzie King ones where he stayed PM, and 2 Arthur Meighen ones where his party lost, so he didn't stay PM, of course.)

One would imagine that it would be possible for other Westminster parliamentary democracies to do the same.
 
In Canada, if the Leader of one of the main parliamentary parties loses their seat, they are immediately parachuted into a safe riding that's guaranteed to elect them.



Oddly, the source cited there says 5 times a PM has lost his seat, but only lists 4 (the 2 Mackenzie King ones where he stayed PM, and 2 Arthur Meighen ones where his party lost, so he didn't stay PM, of course.)

One would imagine that it would be possible for other Westminster parliamentary democracies to do the same.

So, similar to an Alec Douglas-Home situation. Would the Deputy Leader/Deputy PM take over until the next by-election? (forced, presumably?)
 
That could have happened in the 1922 general election when Prime Minister Andrew Bonar Law's majority in Glasgow Central was 2,514, reduced from 12,917 in the 1918 general election.
 
This happens all the time in Canada. Most recently in 2013 when the Premier of BC, Christy Clark, won an unexpected majority but lost her own seat. Within a few weeks a loyal backbencher had resigned and she ran in the by-election. She remained Premier the whole time. It didn't matter that she wasn't in the legislature, all that mattered was that she had the confidence of the house.

And the 5th Canadian PM example where this happened was Sir John A. MacDonald who used to run in 2 or 3 seats in each election (this was allowed) and he didn't always win them all. That's how he ended up representing Victoria as an MP, when he lost in Kingston.
 
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