Okay so, how about this. It's a pretty large stretch, but let's try something different.
Through some incredible generalship along with a hefty degree of luck (probably mostly luck) Russia is victorious in the Russo-Japanese War. Russian control is over Manchuria is solidified while Japan attempts to deal with a worsening financial crisis. The Japanese weakness causes the Korean Empire to reject vassalage to Japan, providing a buffer against a second Russo-Japanese conflict.
Meanwhile in Europe, the prestige from winning the war allows Emperor Nicholas to push the Treaty of Bjorko on his ministers, leading the way for reconciliation between Germany and Russia. The realignment is also fueled by suspicious regarding the Anglo-France entente. With France courting England, an incredibly vocal Russophobic state after the defeat of it's ally Japan, the Russian ministers feel the need to keep it's options open in terms of foreign friends. The treaty with Germany secures Russia's western border of its biggest threat. Meanwhile in Tokyo, the Taft-Katsura Agreement discusses cooperation between America and Japan to contain Russian dominance in Asia. Gradually the world pivots to Asia in anticipation of a new great colonial scramble.
World War 1 is preempted by diplomacy between Germany and Russia, the better relations between the two (and weaker, but not entirely sundered relations between Russia and France) leading to a united front to force Austria and Serbia to send the issue to the Hague Convention. Instead with the issue of the late Franz Ferdinand settled relatively easily, all eyes are focused on events in China.
The Xinhai revolution overthrows China's ancient Qing Dynasty, but is soon co-opted by General Yuan Shikai, who is in turn soon co-opted by foreign interests. Particularly Russia, who eager to secure a strong ally in the region controlled by a pliant client ruler, offer support to General Yuan in exchange for concessions, while also making preparations to detach Mongolia, Manchuria and Xinjiang from the Chinese state. Not prepared for the backlash of selling out, Yuan Shikai quickly finds himself under criticism and eventually, under the fire of an assassin in a sandwich shop. Once again, China splits between north and south. Japan seeing its chance to get back into the colonial game, negotiates its support to Sun Yat-sen's southern government. Unfortunately, Sun is soon assassination in retaliation for Yuan Shikai's death by vengeful officers of the Beiyang Army (other theories blame Japan for Sun's assassination so as to remove a future rival). China's revolutionary republican movement quickly takes an anti-imperialist and anti-European turn (further encouraged by Japanese agents stiring discontent for their own purposes). Even more so once Russia sends its northern troops to assist it's Chinese allies in restoring order to the newly developing warlord era.
On the international scene, Russia is able to paint the situation as a second boxer movement, convincing the European powers for a second internvetion. For some powers, the intervention is considered a success, allowing them to expand their colonies on the map through China's expense. For others, government opinion quickly turns against the attempted intervention, with little success in actually dealing with the chaos in China. America quickly becomes disillusioned with the war, withdrawing to the Philippines and decreeing the entire Second Intervention Alliance as a colonial power play by the European powers, particularly Russia and Germany. Britain follows suit, ending its cooperation with the alliance, though not withdrawing from China. Growing public sympathy for China and the uselessness of the war gradually cause the end of the alliance, having failed completely at restoring order to China. In fact the warlord situation appears to have gotten even worse.
By the late 1920s, Germany and Russia feel strong enough to try playing the Chinese game again, particularly in the face of increasing resistance to colonial rule in their Asian colonies. The fact that men like Vladamir Lenin and Trotsky are running around in China preaching their socialist thought to the Chinese rebels against the legitimate (foreign controlled) Beijing government is also an issue. The actual war is triggered by the sinking of one of the (obsessively rearmed) IJN's ships by a Russian mine off the coast of Korea. While Russia claims the ship was carrying military supplies for Chinese rebels, Japan is widely seen as the victim. Kind of expected after Russia uses to this an excuse to enforce their sphere of influence on Korea by force. Japan having positioned itself as the foremost nation of the Asia for the Asian movement (not by Trotsky, but Trotsky is crazy), dutifully responds in defense of Korea. Russia escalates the war by declaring the Chinese coast subject to search and seize by Russian ships (flying the flag of the Chinese Beijing government) to confiscate contraband.
Britain, already trying to determine how to support poor little plucky Japan from getting beaten a second time, pounces upon Russian overreach to maritime law and declares their own blockade of Russian ships in the north sea in retaliation, as well as to prevent the Baltic fleet from heading to the Pacific (the last time that happened Russia blew up a bunch of British fishing boats AND kicked Japan's ass). This is seen as an act of war under the Treaty of Bjorko, and Germany convinces Russia to declare war on rival Britain, bringing the German Kriegsmarine and U-boats to the alliance.
And finally, across the far sea, America having been full of Russophobic newspapers and political lobbying by the Japanese, the British and the Chinese since the end of the Russo-Japanese War, declares that Britain and Japan must prevail in this conflict.
Through some incredible generalship along with a hefty degree of luck (probably mostly luck) Russia is victorious in the Russo-Japanese War. Russian control is over Manchuria is solidified while Japan attempts to deal with a worsening financial crisis. The Japanese weakness causes the Korean Empire to reject vassalage to Japan, providing a buffer against a second Russo-Japanese conflict.
Meanwhile in Europe, the prestige from winning the war allows Emperor Nicholas to push the Treaty of Bjorko on his ministers, leading the way for reconciliation between Germany and Russia. The realignment is also fueled by suspicious regarding the Anglo-France entente. With France courting England, an incredibly vocal Russophobic state after the defeat of it's ally Japan, the Russian ministers feel the need to keep it's options open in terms of foreign friends. The treaty with Germany secures Russia's western border of its biggest threat. Meanwhile in Tokyo, the Taft-Katsura Agreement discusses cooperation between America and Japan to contain Russian dominance in Asia. Gradually the world pivots to Asia in anticipation of a new great colonial scramble.
World War 1 is preempted by diplomacy between Germany and Russia, the better relations between the two (and weaker, but not entirely sundered relations between Russia and France) leading to a united front to force Austria and Serbia to send the issue to the Hague Convention. Instead with the issue of the late Franz Ferdinand settled relatively easily, all eyes are focused on events in China.
The Xinhai revolution overthrows China's ancient Qing Dynasty, but is soon co-opted by General Yuan Shikai, who is in turn soon co-opted by foreign interests. Particularly Russia, who eager to secure a strong ally in the region controlled by a pliant client ruler, offer support to General Yuan in exchange for concessions, while also making preparations to detach Mongolia, Manchuria and Xinjiang from the Chinese state. Not prepared for the backlash of selling out, Yuan Shikai quickly finds himself under criticism and eventually, under the fire of an assassin in a sandwich shop. Once again, China splits between north and south. Japan seeing its chance to get back into the colonial game, negotiates its support to Sun Yat-sen's southern government. Unfortunately, Sun is soon assassination in retaliation for Yuan Shikai's death by vengeful officers of the Beiyang Army (other theories blame Japan for Sun's assassination so as to remove a future rival). China's revolutionary republican movement quickly takes an anti-imperialist and anti-European turn (further encouraged by Japanese agents stiring discontent for their own purposes). Even more so once Russia sends its northern troops to assist it's Chinese allies in restoring order to the newly developing warlord era.
On the international scene, Russia is able to paint the situation as a second boxer movement, convincing the European powers for a second internvetion. For some powers, the intervention is considered a success, allowing them to expand their colonies on the map through China's expense. For others, government opinion quickly turns against the attempted intervention, with little success in actually dealing with the chaos in China. America quickly becomes disillusioned with the war, withdrawing to the Philippines and decreeing the entire Second Intervention Alliance as a colonial power play by the European powers, particularly Russia and Germany. Britain follows suit, ending its cooperation with the alliance, though not withdrawing from China. Growing public sympathy for China and the uselessness of the war gradually cause the end of the alliance, having failed completely at restoring order to China. In fact the warlord situation appears to have gotten even worse.
By the late 1920s, Germany and Russia feel strong enough to try playing the Chinese game again, particularly in the face of increasing resistance to colonial rule in their Asian colonies. The fact that men like Vladamir Lenin and Trotsky are running around in China preaching their socialist thought to the Chinese rebels against the legitimate (foreign controlled) Beijing government is also an issue. The actual war is triggered by the sinking of one of the (obsessively rearmed) IJN's ships by a Russian mine off the coast of Korea. While Russia claims the ship was carrying military supplies for Chinese rebels, Japan is widely seen as the victim. Kind of expected after Russia uses to this an excuse to enforce their sphere of influence on Korea by force. Japan having positioned itself as the foremost nation of the Asia for the Asian movement (not by Trotsky, but Trotsky is crazy), dutifully responds in defense of Korea. Russia escalates the war by declaring the Chinese coast subject to search and seize by Russian ships (flying the flag of the Chinese Beijing government) to confiscate contraband.
Britain, already trying to determine how to support poor little plucky Japan from getting beaten a second time, pounces upon Russian overreach to maritime law and declares their own blockade of Russian ships in the north sea in retaliation, as well as to prevent the Baltic fleet from heading to the Pacific (the last time that happened Russia blew up a bunch of British fishing boats AND kicked Japan's ass). This is seen as an act of war under the Treaty of Bjorko, and Germany convinces Russia to declare war on rival Britain, bringing the German Kriegsmarine and U-boats to the alliance.
And finally, across the far sea, America having been full of Russophobic newspapers and political lobbying by the Japanese, the British and the Chinese since the end of the Russo-Japanese War, declares that Britain and Japan must prevail in this conflict.