PoD 1: General Sanjurjo avoids death by excess baggage and becomes Caudillo of Spain.
PoD 2: Allies break into Enigma a month earlier. (February 1940 instead of March.)
- As a result of Enigma SIGINT, the German invasion of Norway fails.
- In the massive gloating over that, the Enigma break leaks out.
- Germany delays CASE YELLOW (attack on France etc) while fixing signals security and losses from Norway. The delay lasts 10 weeks, until late July.
- WIth the war in Europe apparently in hand for the Allies, Roosevelt decides that the "International crisis" is under control and he does not need to serve a third term. He announces his retirement just before the Democratic National Convention (15-18 July).
- The convention is thrown up for grabs. Senator Burton Wheeler of Montana jumps in (OTL he had a campaign committee formed in secret, just in case). After some pulling and hauling, Wheeler wins the nomination.
- On 20 July, Germany attacks in the West. The attack is not as successful as OTL's blitzkrieg, though still impressive. Germany overruns Netherlands, Belgium, northern France; destroys the BEF at Dunkerque, Boulogne, and Calais; but is halted before Paris by mid-September. The front stabilizes on the line Luxembourg-Paris-Seine River.
- On 15 October Spain and Italy attack southern France. (Mussolini was fool enough; IMO Sanjurjo was too.) Germany renews its attack. France collapses; but the French government refuses to surrender, fleeing to Algeria. The battle of France finally ends 18 December.
- On 5 November, Wheeler is elected to succeed Roosevelt as President, narrowly defeating Republican Willkie. Wheeler is a fanatic isolationist. He denounces all military arrangements with the Allies, repudiating the "Destroyers for Bases" deal made by Roosevelt. Later he disclaims any US protection for European colonies in East Asia (i.e. Indochina, Malaya, and the East Indies).
Further course of the war, quickly:
The Axis conquers French North Africa; the Allies conquer Italian East Africa and the Dodecanese.
At sea:
The Alles... don't have ULTRA; do have Norway, the French navy, and Dakar, and take the Canary Islands.
The Axis... doesn't have Norway; does have secure crypto, Spain, and eventually Morocco.
In March 1941, Japan, taking President Wheeler at his word, invades and conquers SE Asia. (Why pay for oil when one can just take it? Especially since Japan is out of money, and Wheeler has largely embargoed US trade with all belligerents.)
Britain has to send most of the Royal Navy to the Pacific and Indian Oceans to defend Australia and India. The Allies are in deep trouble, but the Axis is also strained very hard.
In July 1941, the USSR attacks Germany. The initial Soviet wave gets to Berlin; then German counterattacks crush the invading Soviets with enormous losses. The Germans continue east, joined by Romania and Hungary, taking Leningrad, Smolensk, Kiev, and Crimea. With the fall rains, the Eastern Front stabilizes and the Axis dig in for the winter. Soviet winter counterattacks cause some damage (but less than OTL), but are crushed in spring 1942 (as in OTL).
The war drags on. The Allies can't really do much in the Pacific and Burma except hold on. Japan can't really invade Australia or India, but does move out into the Pacific, seizing the New Hebrides, New Caledonia, and invading Fiji (big mistake; to quote a US officer who saw them in action in Iraq, they're tougher than $2 steaks). They also hang on in Egypt, West Africa, and at sea. There's an enormous skirmish war in the deep Sahara from Egypt to Mauritania. Bomber Command starts hitting Germany.
**** Resuming, if anybody cares ****
In summer 1942, Germany attacks toward Moscow. Soviet resistance is massive, but clumsy. The Germas plow through 2M Soviet troops to reach the outskirts of Moscow by early September, losing about 500K themselves. In heavy fighting around Moscow, the Germans advance N and S of the city, and somewhat into the city, losing another 500K while the Soviets lose 1M. Soviet counterattacks against the German flanks in November trap and destroy another 500K while the Soviets also lose 500K.
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