AHC: Longest Plausible World War I

The original request was to use one point of divergence from OTL.

I proposed Falkenhayn deciding to attack Russia rather than setting up a battle of attrition at Verdun.

Another possibility is Petain convincing Joffre to withdraw from the East bank of the Meuse at Verdun once the Germans attacked and conducting a fighting withdrawal on the West bank. In effect the salient at Verdun is reduced and the line straightened with much smaller losses than occurred in OTL at Verdun.

The knockon effect of the Verdun withdrawal may be to change the mindset of the Allies (especially the French) from offensive action to preserving resources by tactical withdrawals and only attacking when the tactical situation is very favourable.

The Western Front still is a war of attrition but stretched over a long time since the huge losses of the set piece battles don't happen.

I'd like to make a comment about Cambrai. The tank attack did rupture the front and it was intended a division of cavalry would push through the opening to expand the breakthrough. It never happened - the cavalry sat on their bums and did nothing save for a weak company sized reconnaissance. The German counter attack at Cambrai should have given the Allied senior commanders pause for thought - the German Army used stormtroopers in large numbers with accompanying artillery - the front was completely ruptured but the attack led nowhere since the Germans seemed content to recover the ground lost in the tank attack.

Charlie
 

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@Charlie: I think closing the Eastern Front by seizing a city in Russia as you proposed earlier would be more consequential, but I can't find an external source that confirms they considered that. I don't disbelieve you, but book recommendations/links would be conducive to my research =)
 
@Charlie: I think closing the Eastern Front by seizing a city in Russia as you proposed earlier would be more consequential, but I can't find an external source that confirms they considered that. I don't disbelieve you, but book recommendations/links would be conducive to my research =)

Alistair Horne's "The Price of Glory - Verdun 1916" discusses the debate between "easterners" and "westerners" in the German command. Horne's book, although published in 1962, is still in print. It is one of the better and more accessible histories of Verdun.

St Peterburg would be the city to go for - aside from being where in Tsar's court was it was also where most of the Russian armaments industries were located.

Charlie
 

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Banned
Alistair Horne's "The Price of Glory - Verdun 1916" discusses the debate between "easterners" and "westerners" in the German command. Horne's book, although published in 1962, is still in print. It is one of the better and more accessible histories of Verdun.

St Peterburg would be the city to go for - aside from being where in Tsar's court was it was also where most of the Russian armaments industries were located.

Charlie

Ah, thank you!

Having now read the relevant information, I think it would be possible for Hindenburg to replace Moltke as the Chief of the General Staff instead of Falkenhayn, who seemed rather deadset on his attrition strategy. Under the command of Hindenburg, St. Petersburg is seized by October 10th 1916. What becomes of the Tsar, and the Revolution? Would there be a government left to sue for peace?
 
There are all sorts of intriguing possibilities.....

I agree, Hindenberg rather than Moltke would have probably have resulted in a eastward attack rather than attrition on the Western Front.

If the Germans were smart they would play the nationalist movements so that they get a ring of buffer states between Germany and Russia. In effect, the Germans set up new states similar to what happened OTL - Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland and just possibly the Ukraine (which didn't happen OTL). It's all mostly Russian territory save for the southern part of modern Poland. All the new states would be under the protection of the German Reich maybe even with a customs union.

With a defeated Russia and the western territories converted to buffer states who aren't going to be friendly to the Russians it turns into a "who cares about Russia". Perhaps the revolution never gets going because the Tsar is forced to become a constitutional monarch and political power devolves to an elected Duma. Even modest land reforms would take a lot of heat out of the agitation for a revolution.

Charlie
 
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