AHC: Longer-lasting Rhodesia

I think the road to Rhodesia Forever runs through South Africa. B.J. Vorster decided at some point that it would be best to support majority rule in Rhodeisa, in the hopes that the more moderate Muzorewa would win election and civil war would avoid spilling into South Africa.

So, not sure how you'd do this, but find a way to get Vorster to stick with the whites in Rhodesia.
 
I think the road to Rhodesia Forever runs through South Africa. B.J. Vorster decided at some point that it would be best to support majority rule in Rhodeisa, in the hopes that the more moderate Muzorewa would win election and civil war would avoid spilling into South Africa.

So, not sure how you'd do this, but find a way to get Vorster to stick with the whites in Rhodesia.

That and South Africa's support of minority rule was a huge part of the reason that South Africa became a regional pariah.

It was always South Africa's priority to avoid the sort of diplomatic and economic isolation that proved to be their undoing as time went on.
South Africa was rich in resources and compared to the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa was quite well-developed, or at least outside of the Bantustans.

Ending support for Rhodesia was part of the South African effort to keep itself from being isolated. Because at the end of the day, a single white-ruled government wasn't worth losing the support of the rest of Africa.

As to how the Rhodesians can keep on chugging, you probably have to have a less extreme implementation of white minority rule. Rhodesia, like South Africa, is very much divided based on tribal and ethnic lines, these divisions are what allowed the minority white settlers to take power to begin with. The Ndebele are terrified of a Shona-dominated state and the ZANU-PF which was majority Shona didn't much care for them.

For Rhodesia to live, some segment of the black populace has to support the Rhodesians, how this takes place is another query.
 
From Frying Pan Into The Fire

As to how the Rhodesians can keep on chugging, you probably have to have a less extreme implementation of white minority rule.

For Rhodesia to live, some segment of the black populace has to support the Rhodesians, how this takes place is another query.


Immigration From The Frying Pan Into The Fire


A tough sell. Odds are not good. Isolated and sold out by South Africa, the first step was military, how to get enough reliable troops to man up. This is being said even though there was never a lost battle, but the hand writing was on the wall so the government gave up power through negotiations (to preserve 20% of legislators being white elected for ten years I think).


Before that, just as HeavyWeaponsGuy wrote there needs to be more Black participation. The way to do that is economical. The way to have more pluralistic South Africa is to show the way. Smith had the right idea, even inviting Ayn Rand to maybe point out something that would work (it didn't).


Immigration was a tough one. How do you invite people when you are in trouble? Mozambique in 1975 did provide some settlers of all races to Rhodesia but not many. The only solution I can see is sure to be controversial from a number of players IOTL and at AH.com: South Vietnam in 1975.


In Da Nang alone, if remember correctly, more than a million people who wanted out did not.


"Although ARVN forces in the area outnumbered the Communists by three to one, they were demoralized and lacked leadership. More than 100,000 soldiers surrendered or were captured."

The tiny Rhodesian Corps shows up at the last minute and provides that leadership.

That was just the ARVN alone. Many more were militia men and their families. Were the Rhodesians really clever, practically having a crystal ball, and set up a few large, old tankers with multiple layers of rope stories for human habitation (almost like a hammock), one could hypothetically do it.

One tanker alone, the voids clean from years in moth ball storage, could potentially take 100,000 or more short distances to islands so to sort the hazardous cargo of people out. Not that such a solution would be easy with IOTL the mobs were spooked, dangerous, and crazed. Rapes and murders and thefts were pretty much the norm according to the ships that transported those that made it on board to Vung Tai (to get captured there).


Under New Management:


Beyond this thread in greater detail, but the idea is to shore up the city of Da Nang, take off most to near by off shore islands, each of about 10 sq miles, feed and take care of both those off shore and in Da Nang, repair the damaged morale, and take over. Tell them the idea is looking for those to potentially become Rhodesian citizens.

Segregate civilians, and differing varieties of troops. Remove the leadership from positions of authority. Hey, the ones that have families in tow are even better, you know that you can threaten to just leave their families in Da Nang or off shore islands. They want to make it work, and get their families the heck out of there.


If it really works well, the same could be done near Saigon, as it would likely last a good bit longer, like a couple weeks, but the NVA wanted it all done before the May/June rainy season.


Taking the people to Mozambique is almost a bigger problem, as it changes to communist rule on June 25th, 1975. And of course there was a patroling British warship which kind of sort of prevented embargoed materiel from getting into Rhodesia, of which people were not a contraband item. After that date the patrol was gone, but the government prevented free flow of goods despite an ancient agreement of that. Still not a total roadblock, but you get the idea.


How many and what that would do for the Blacks of Rhodesia? If there were a million, and most certainly there were that many if not more that would have fled South Vietnam if they could, then the Blacks would be restive. It would do much better with the relatively lightly populated (an out of the way to Ndebele & dominant Party Shona Northern subtribe) south, which also was about that time a big irrigation scheme for rice starting there. Cities take really few square miles of land anyway.


Properly done, hypothetically these immigrants would provide much better source than either whites (few in number, comfortable and not extremely entrepreneurial) or blacks. Also, that would take care of the increasingly desperate issue of the draft for whites, which was driving out the young men of the time through emmigration. In short, a shot in the arm for the state, enough to maybe make it to the glory days of super good harvests/world wide supply crash of tabacco in 1989. After that, immigration from Eastern Europe and Russia, if events follow OTL.



Eventual population 2010? 35 million, of which about 55% white or asian, 35% native black, and 10% immigration black, especially from repressive regimes of Africa like Rwanda. (Such a policy was in place and active during Smith's years, though the political refugee
immigrants despised themselves for taking advantage of it.) One man one vote. Eventually the politics drops away and the African Union accepts the state of RhodZimbia as a valid member.


Rhodesia/Zimbabwe about the size of Poland, by the way, so not that crowded at 35 million.



Oh, and do not trust the Vietnamese much at all in the military once in Africa, or most new East Europeans for that matter. Only a very few of the most mallable lowest ranking persons, all other new arrivals to business field where it is most needed. Better than an early death in a re-education camp, eh? One other thing, IOTL Rhodesia did offer to send a military company or two to Vietnam, but under US presure was proposal uniquely refused. A MASH type hospital unit was sent instead.
 
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