ahc: longer lasting Chinese civil war
- Thread starter La Rouge Beret
- Start date
Realpolitik
Banned
Hm… not too many PODs on this!
Perhaps the Japanese never launch Operation Ichigo, thus Chiang doesn't suffer the PR loss that this causes and Washington supports him more as a result. Maybe more focus on China rather than island-hopping. As well as the Soviets-Stalin did deride Mao as a "caveman" and had no qualms about supporting the KMT in the past.
Get Chiang Kai Shek to follow the recommendations of those in the US State Department who recognized that the Communists had already seized and secured the entirety of Manchuria and that it was pointless overextension to fly the KMT armies into Manchurian cities where they would be besieged without hope of sustained aerial resupply. The occupation of Manchuria was what gave the Communists the chance to begin closing the gap in heavy weaponry and manpower as the KMT units that were cut off in Manchuria eventually surrendered and joined the Communist forces, replete with their artillery, machine guns, and munitions.
The split into a communist north China and a KMT dominated southern China is a staple of AH, and I'm surprised no one has mentioned it yet.
The split into a communist north China and a KMT dominated southern China is a staple of AH, and I'm surprised no one has mentioned it yet.
Yeah, the problem was really that CKS kept rolling the dice on Manchuria. The earlier he quits there, the more of China he has a chance of holding.
If, say, the KMT gives up on Manchuria after the campaign for Siping, withdrawing their remaining forces to defend China proper, they may find that the PLA is still too powerful for them to maintain a permanent mainland holding, but they would be able to hang for much longer.
If, say, the KMT gives up on Manchuria after the campaign for Siping, withdrawing their remaining forces to defend China proper, they may find that the PLA is still too powerful for them to maintain a permanent mainland holding, but they would be able to hang for much longer.
I've often wondered what might happen if the Chinese are still going after each other in the summer of 1950? This might delay, or even butterfly away the Korean War? Or, even if it happens anyway, as per OTL, and things unfold as they did, with Mao battling the Nationalists, he perhaps can send only a small force to buttress the NKPA come October. Even if, as some here are saying, Manchuria and the north are already under communist control. It would be interesting to see if you can wind up with a rump North Korea coming out of a situation like this, especially if Macarthur doesn't go hog wild, and try to get right to the Yalu. Or if Truman flat out orders him to stop somewhere north of Pyongyang, and sees to it that his order gets obeyed.
Well, if you could save hundreds of thousands of Chiang's best men and equipment from dying or being "turned" because of Siping, then the PLA, while it still has a lot of momentum in North China, runs into more of a brick wall further south. I believe that by the end of 1948, the communists were already poised to take over the Yellow River valley (which would include Beijing and Tianjin), but had it not been for the spectacular blunders made in trying to hold Manchuria, the Nationalists would have been able to a) slow the advance there and b) regroup to defend the Yangtze. Presumably Chiang could hope for a negotiated settlement by appealing to Stalin (as he did IOTL).
Stalin preferred a divided China to a unified China, and might urge the CCP to negotiate. I do not think that Mao would be given to do so. Whatever the case, the PLA is still going to have more problems than it did IOTL. You're not going to have a rapid nine-month advance from north to south, you're going to have a lot more destructive campaigns waged for central China since the Nationalists still have plenty of fight in them. It would be easy to extend the war a couple more years this way. This is assuming no major diplomatic action from the USA or USSR.
La Rouge Beret
Donor
Hmmm very interesting. Essentially I am asking this as I wanted to merge my rebooted Angkor Resurgent and Vietnamese timelines. As part of that I had been toying with having a pro west North Vietnam and a Communist South Vietnam.
Although it is all conjecture how likely would it be for the KMT to maintain their hold on the South of China?
Although it is all conjecture how likely would it be for the KMT to maintain their hold on the South of China?
La Rouge Beret
Donor
Post 1945 POD, my preference is for either a divided China or a united China under communist control.
Although a KMT China with a VNQDD North Vietnam may also be interesting and this could work for me with a Communist Manchuria.
Although a KMT China with a VNQDD North Vietnam may also be interesting and this could work for me with a Communist Manchuria.
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With a post-'45 POD you could do one of the following:
1) Chiang initiates political reforms. They don't have to be successful, but it'll certainly boost popularity for KMT
2) Have the relevant authorities be smarter about reorganizing and downsizing the National Revolutionary Army. Use the experienced men to start a reservist system at their homes and give them better benefits - IOTL the demobilization forced a lot of men out of uniforms, and they all ended up joining the Communists for a living
3) Use New I and VI Corps, two of the best-performing and -equipped Chinese units in the war, as training cadres and start a Chinese version of Fort Irwin somewhere
4) BE MORE COMPETENT IN COUNTERINTELLIGENCE. I can't stress this enough - IOTL there were so many Communist spies inside the Chinese General Staff the Communists got the original copies of KMT battle plans. It was with those intelligence they managed to force the 74th (Reorganized) Division into unfavorable terrain at Menglianggu which resulted in its destruction, decisively defeat the ROC Army at the Huaihai Campaign, and elude Hu Zongnan's offensive against Yan'an.
5) Accept that Manchuria is a lost cause and do not bother to attack it, at least not until he consolidated the rest of the country - the Communists weren't the only ones causing trouble, remember...
6) If Chiang does end up attacking Manchuria, have him go the whole way and ignore Marshall's mediation. IOTL when the SecState tried to get the KMT and CCP to stop fighting, Lin Biao's forces were this close to being forced out of country and into Russian Far East.
7) When the situation in Manchuria deteriorate to a certain point, start pulling out and fall back to the Yellow River's south bank. That'll give them more time to handle the East China and Central Plains Field Armies before any version of Huaihai happens
8) Somehow make Chiang Kai-shek less prone to interfering in battle
Pretty much this. At the very least, Fu Zuoyi isn't going to give up that easily at Peking, and without a Huaihai Campaign you could preserve the cream of the ROC Army.
Marc A
1) Chiang initiates political reforms. They don't have to be successful, but it'll certainly boost popularity for KMT
2) Have the relevant authorities be smarter about reorganizing and downsizing the National Revolutionary Army. Use the experienced men to start a reservist system at their homes and give them better benefits - IOTL the demobilization forced a lot of men out of uniforms, and they all ended up joining the Communists for a living
3) Use New I and VI Corps, two of the best-performing and -equipped Chinese units in the war, as training cadres and start a Chinese version of Fort Irwin somewhere
4) BE MORE COMPETENT IN COUNTERINTELLIGENCE. I can't stress this enough - IOTL there were so many Communist spies inside the Chinese General Staff the Communists got the original copies of KMT battle plans. It was with those intelligence they managed to force the 74th (Reorganized) Division into unfavorable terrain at Menglianggu which resulted in its destruction, decisively defeat the ROC Army at the Huaihai Campaign, and elude Hu Zongnan's offensive against Yan'an.
5) Accept that Manchuria is a lost cause and do not bother to attack it, at least not until he consolidated the rest of the country - the Communists weren't the only ones causing trouble, remember...
6) If Chiang does end up attacking Manchuria, have him go the whole way and ignore Marshall's mediation. IOTL when the SecState tried to get the KMT and CCP to stop fighting, Lin Biao's forces were this close to being forced out of country and into Russian Far East.
7) When the situation in Manchuria deteriorate to a certain point, start pulling out and fall back to the Yellow River's south bank. That'll give them more time to handle the East China and Central Plains Field Armies before any version of Huaihai happens
8) Somehow make Chiang Kai-shek less prone to interfering in battle
Pretty much this. At the very least, Fu Zuoyi isn't going to give up that easily at Peking, and without a Huaihai Campaign you could preserve the cream of the ROC Army.
Marc A
That'd be awesome. I literally just bought a book yesterday that goes into detail about how the ROC government lost the Second Civil War. There's a lot of possibilities in there with what little I can see with a brief flip-through.
Marc A