The conservative movement is still going to grow and be influential. If we don't have the riots, crime, and inflation of the late sixties and seventies, its influence can be mooted, but the Republicans will still need to accommodate it somehow.
Probably the best way to do that is for Nixon to win the 1960 Presidential election. He wasn't a true conservative, but he was popular with all levels of the party, had some good conservative credentials, and was broadly acceptable to them. Departures to ensure that could include 1) no 50 state strategy, 2) no debate with Kennedy, and 3) Nixon sends support to King while he's in jail like Kennedy did.
We then say Nixon wins in 1964 again. He avoids Vietnam. The Great Society is never implemented. Civil Rights still advances, and some kind of act gets passed, but perhaps not as comprehensive as OTL's Civil Rights and Voting Acts. It's also possible Nixon loses in 1964, but I think the economy's strength will get him through despite one party holding the White House for 12 years at this point. If so, I don't think much will change by that point. LBJ becoming president and the immense landslide he had because of JFK death sympathy just can't be duplicated by anyone ITTL. No Great Society is going to happen. Any such programs will be less ambitious and more bipartisan.
America is not as radicalized as it was under LBJ, and the social disturbances are much less. Civil rights movement is not as influenced by other radical leftist groups, and the Republicans retain considerable support in the black community. 1968 goes to the Democrats as 16 years of GOP Presidency is hard to continue. However, the Rockefeller faction is still dominant, and Nelson gets the nomination and wins in either 1972 or 1976.
Conservative activists probably influence policy on the margin, particularly free market, but there is much less government intervention in this timeline because there is no Great Society.
Probably the best way to do that is for Nixon to win the 1960 Presidential election. He wasn't a true conservative, but he was popular with all levels of the party, had some good conservative credentials, and was broadly acceptable to them. Departures to ensure that could include 1) no 50 state strategy, 2) no debate with Kennedy, and 3) Nixon sends support to King while he's in jail like Kennedy did.
We then say Nixon wins in 1964 again. He avoids Vietnam. The Great Society is never implemented. Civil Rights still advances, and some kind of act gets passed, but perhaps not as comprehensive as OTL's Civil Rights and Voting Acts. It's also possible Nixon loses in 1964, but I think the economy's strength will get him through despite one party holding the White House for 12 years at this point. If so, I don't think much will change by that point. LBJ becoming president and the immense landslide he had because of JFK death sympathy just can't be duplicated by anyone ITTL. No Great Society is going to happen. Any such programs will be less ambitious and more bipartisan.
America is not as radicalized as it was under LBJ, and the social disturbances are much less. Civil rights movement is not as influenced by other radical leftist groups, and the Republicans retain considerable support in the black community. 1968 goes to the Democrats as 16 years of GOP Presidency is hard to continue. However, the Rockefeller faction is still dominant, and Nelson gets the nomination and wins in either 1972 or 1976.
Conservative activists probably influence policy on the margin, particularly free market, but there is much less government intervention in this timeline because there is no Great Society.