AHC: Less Stalinist Postwar Europe

OK, taking one of these (though currently, preference is for the first one) as a choice of PoD:
  • the July 20, 1944 Plot succeeds in killing Hitler
  • FDR dies on his way to Yalta (Feb 1945)
Now, ideas like them have been discussed here before, usually with the focus falling on how the military advances and subsequent occupation zones of Europe are changed (or, as plenty intelligently insist, don't change). But what interests me here is how either of these PoDs affects not only how much of Europe is militarily occupied by the Soviet Union (and WAllies respectively), but if and how the character of said occupation differs from OTL. Particularly in the East, as the factors I'm currently curious about are:
  • the building (from ground up) of the political police in Eastern Europe, and the levels of violence said police conduct in the aftermath of the liberation and subsequent years
  • other methods of violence, mainly ethnic cleansing and the suppression of competing antifascist partisans
  • the degree of direct control Moscow holds over the Communist Parties of Eastern Europe, and the degree to which political opposition to said parties are crushed
  • the levels of economic centralization and "socialization" (the "wars on the shops", nationalization of industry, etc)
  • the nationalization of civic organizations, youth organizations, and radio
Again, these changes can be by way of changing the area controlled by the Soviets, the strategy of Soviet occupation, or both.
 
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Don Quijote

Banned
For a less Stalinist Europe a good POD would be an early death for Stalin:)
Seriously though, the successful 20th July plot POD is going to have bigger consequences. As the Western Allies see more clearly the threat from the USSR and hear about the Katyn Massacre and other atrocities, they may be willing to make a separate peace with Germany. This will probably mean that even if the Germans pull out of the east, many guerrillas eg Latvians, Ukrainians, Poles will fight on desperately against the oncoming Red Army hoping for western help. Stalin's territory will be reduced, but I think his policies will be even harsher towards non-communists.
 
For a less Stalinist Europe a good POD would be an early death for Stalin:)...

Stalin's territory will be reduced, but I think his policies will be even harsher towards non-communists.
I'm not sure if that's cheating of ineffective.

Well, even if he's being more brutal in establishing communist domination, OP also allows for said communists to decide to rush their "socialist revolutions" less.
 

Don Quijote

Banned
The countries which actually ended neutral in the Cold War will be more westernised, and those such as Austria will join NATO: Czechoslovakia would probably end up neutral, and Hungary might have a chance of avoiding Communism. However, these would be obvious targets for Soviet expansion.
On the other hand, I can see Stalin struggling to turn these countries Communist, after a bloody war of suppression against the Baltic States. How far west would you expect Soviet control to extend when the war was completely over?
 
FDR dying before Yalta does nothing to make Europe less Stalinist. Stalin imposed his ideology wherever he could, making concessions to the Allies only in a few cases where he knew pushing things might complicate their acquiescence elsewhere. Stalin ignored all the promises he made to FDR on democratic elections postwar, and FDR had zero impact on how far the Red Army went into Central Europe.

The POD has to directly affect things like the Red Army not entering certain territories and Stalin's own death.

The July 20 plot would only affect Stalinization if it somehow allowed Western Allies to occupy parts of Central Europe before the Red Army, and that is a VERY LATE POD to do so.

The PODs you should be looking at would involve:

1) Early death of Stalin allowing Moscow to be more cooperative with the West postwar.

2) Red Army does worse delaying their entrance into Central Europe by several months or more, a full year's delay being best.

3) Better Allied operations in Italy or Mediterranean so Allied forces can enter the Balkans before the Red Army. This might lead to Hungary and Bulgaria being saved, but Romania is far tougher to keep and Poland is just like OTL.
 
The POD has to directly affect things like the Red Army not entering certain territories and Stalin's own death.

The July 20 plot would only affect Stalinization if it somehow allowed Western Allies to occupy parts of Central Europe before the Red Army, and that is a VERY LATE POD to do so.
A late PoD is what I'm looking for.

So you're saying basically that reducing the degree of Stalinization in those parts of Europe occupied by Stalin's armies is impossible (short of killing Stalin)?
 

Don Quijote

Banned
If FDR was dead before Yalta, and Harry Truman still replaced him, that would mean Truman+Churchill vs Stalin. In OTL Roosevelt trusted Stalin too much, and Churchill was sidelined while Stalin got what he wanted. Truman would be less likely to compromise.
 
So you're saying basically that reducing the degree of Stalinization in those parts of Europe occupied by Stalin's armies is impossible (short of killing Stalin)?
Still curious, incidentally, how shared this view is on the board.
If FDR was dead before Yalta, and Harry Truman still replaced him, that would mean Truman+Churchill vs Stalin. In OTL Roosevelt trusted Stalin too much, and Churchill was sidelined while Stalin got what he wanted. Truman would be less likely to compromise.
There's also the question, OTOH, of how much the POTUS can change things with a late PoD; that's one of the big reasons I'm currently partial to achieving the CH with the July 20 plot succeeding.
 
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