AHC: Less Aggressive Japanese Empire?

Oddly enough, inspired by a HoI2 Japan game where I did my best to avoid fighting anybody (I did end up at war with Germany, but only because they were getting close to Siberia by '45)

Getting to the point, what would World War II have been like if the Japanese Empire was less aggressive? Maybe Militaristic is a better word,...meh, go with both.

If this was the case, would they have started the Second Sino-Japanese war, or have even gone to war with the West?

For this what if, Lets say the earliest POD can be 1920. Prefer a POD during the early 1930's.

End goal is to have the Japanese Empire still in existance. Whether its West-Friendly or not doesn't neccessarily matter.
 

Markus

Banned
For this what if, Lets say the earliest POD can be 1920. Prefer a POD during the early 1930's.

The Chinese begin the modernisation of their army somewhat earlier, Chiang recognizes that even his best units are still outgunned(and of course outnumbered) and decides a flexible defence is best:

-limited stands
-delaying actions
-hit and run counterattacks

As Japanese losses mount, Stalin takes the opportunity to support the enemy-of-his-enemy much more than IOTL. The Japanese realize what Stalin is planning, the IJA´s command structure get´s reformed(=purged) and the new army leadership advises the government to end the "China incedent" ASAP. Done! Henceforth the threat from the USSR once again becomes the IJA´s No.1 task. At the end of 1941 there is a debate about exploiting the USSR´s weakness but as the USSR is allied to the UK which is de facto allied the the USA, the IJA recommends a sit-and-wait approach.


Basically the Japanese army understand that if they can´t even defeat China they better not start a fight with any nation more powerful than China.
 
Discredit the militarists by coopting them through the appointment of sane, respected officers to the premiership when crazies in the military start acting up in the 1920's.
 
The Chinese begin the modernisation of their army somewhat earlier, Chiang recognizes that even his best units are still outgunned(and of course outnumbered) and decides a flexible defence is best:

-limited stands
-delaying actions
-hit and run counterattacks

As Japanese losses mount, Stalin takes the opportunity to support the enemy-of-his-enemy much more than IOTL. The Japanese realize what Stalin is planning, the IJA´s command structure get´s reformed(=purged) and the new army leadership advises the government to end the "China incedent" ASAP. Done! Henceforth the threat from the USSR once again becomes the IJA´s No.1 task. At the end of 1941 there is a debate about exploiting the USSR´s weakness but as the USSR is allied to the UK which is de facto allied the the USA, the IJA recommends a sit-and-wait approach.


Basically the Japanese army understand that if they can´t even defeat China they better not start a fight with any nation more powerful than China.

That...that sounds like a very interesting idea. I may have to stash that away and try to write a timeline about that, if I have the time. (and someone else doesn't beat me to the punch.)
 
On September 1, 1923, Nissho Inoue dies in the Kanto Earthquake. As a result, he never gets around to forming the League of Blood, derailing the League of Blood Incident entirely and possibly the assassination of Prime Minister Inukai Tsuyoshi.

Which means that Japan enters the historic buildup-to-war era with much more civilian power in government, a strengthened anti-militarist Rikken Seiyukai cabinet, and no legal precedent for nationalists getting off easy for political murders.

Not sure if this is enough to stave things off on its own, but it does set the butterflies in motion.
 
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I think it would be very hard to have a significantly less militaristic Japan without a POD as far back as TR's presidency. It was pretty much ingrained in their blood by this point. Changing politics is one thing. Changing culture and society is another.
 

abc123

Banned
I think it would be very hard to have a significantly less militaristic Japan without a POD as far back as TR's presidency. It was pretty much ingrained in their blood by this point. Changing politics is one thing. Changing culture and society is another.

I agree.
A very heavy task, maybe if Taisho-democracy lasted longer, but just maybe...
 
Well you could do it the other way round - have them get more tangible results out of the First World War, maybe international recognition for their hold on Port Arthur/Liaoyang into the long term, or a lasting mandate over Vladivostock or a surviving Far Eastern Republic.

Maybe if Charles E Hughes defeats Wilson in 1916 the butterflies will breed the way we want them to?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

abc123

Banned
Well you could do it the other way round - have them get more tangible results out of the First World War, maybe international recognition for their hold on Port Arthur/Liaoyang into the long term, or a lasting mandate over Vladivostock or a surviving Far Eastern Republic.

Maybe if Charles E Hughes defeats Wilson in 1916 the butterflies will breed the way we want them to?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

That.
Or maybe, if they loose Russo-Japanese war?
 
What if the Japanese don't do as well during the Russo-Japanese War? That might put the brakes on things to some degree.
 
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