AHC: Least Bloody Union Victory in ACW

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Petersberg

Have Baldy Smith promptly press the attack at Petersburg. That likely would have shortened the war by some months.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Battle_of_Petersburg

Grant knew that Lee could not protect Richmond if Petersburg fell and he would be forced to battle Grant in the open. He also knew from the unsuccessful first assaults on June 9 how weak the Petersburg defenses actually were. Speed was essential to Grant's plan, requiring success before Lee realized Grant's objective and could reinforce Petersburg. Lee was not in fact fully cognizant of Grant's moves until June 18, assuming until then that Grant would target Richmond. Beauregard, however, had been loudly warning of the danger to Petersburg since June 9.[4]

Inexplicably, Grant selected Butler's Army of the James, which had performed poorly in the Bermuda Hundred Campaign, to lead the expedition toward Petersburg. On June 14 he directed Butler to augment the XVIII Corps, commanded by Brig. Gen. William F. "Baldy" Smith, to a strength of 16,000 men, including Kautz's cavalry division, and use the same route employed in the unsuccessful attacks of June 9. The II Corps of the Army of the Potomac, commanded by Maj. Gen. Winfield S. Hancock, would follow Smith. Grant wrote in his post-war memoirs, "I believed then, and still believe, that Petersburg could have been easily captured at that time."[5]

Beauregard wrote later that Petersburg "at that hour was clearly at the mercy of the Federal commander, who had all but captured it.
 
This and it might even fall apart earlier than Spring 1863. It might fall apart in 1862 or even 1861 if the cards fall right. Here is the quickest scenario I can come up with. I think it is very unlikely but possible.

1) The Union wins the Battle of Bull Run and the CSA Army scatters.

I don't think if the Union army will be in better shape to continue to advance in Virginia and take Richmond than the the Confederate Army in OTL to take Washington.

We can imagine severals Union victories :

- Patterson is able to block Johnson in the Shenandoah Valley and Johnson must fight, he is defeated but he is not destroyed.

- Mc Dowell defeated Beauregard at the battle of Bull Run, then its more greater army give him the possibility to have an effective pursuit with fresh forces, he separated his army in two, a northern force (10K) to move west to crush Johnson and a southern force (20K) in pursuit,

- Mc Dowell southern forces defeat again Beauregard and the Confederate forces of Holmes on the Rappahanock battle,

- Mc Dowell northern forces with Patterson defeat Johnson in the Blue Ridge Mountain by attacking him from the west and the east
 
I don't think if the Union army will be in better shape to continue to advance in Virginia and take Richmond than the the Confederate Army in OTL to take Washington.

Which is why it takes a little less than three weeks. It isn't a three week march from Bull Run to Richmond. There is another battle or two around Richmond but what the CSA has there is too small and too demoralized to put up a long fight. Maybe Johnston pulls out fairly quickly because he thought he was about to lose. Maybe he is replaced by RE Lee who does a frontal assault or two that fails.
 
There were 15 slave states. Even today that would be enough to block an Amendment, which requires 3/4 of states to ratify. And Hawaii and Alaska aren't going to become states within 10 years.

Nor do I see the wholesale creation of states just to pass this Amendment. Creating a state has too many permanent implications.

That is the difficult part, I admit but the OP states that slaves had to be freed within 10 years. Maybe the GOP is willing to buy all the slaves in Delaware and possibly Maryland to pass it and Delaware and MAYBE Maryland are willing to do so.

In either case you need a whole creation of states which is possible . There is more than enough room out west to carve out a considerable number of states.
 
This and it might even fall apart earlier than Spring 1863. It might fall apart in 1862 or even 1861 if the cards fall right. Here is the quickest scenario I can come up with. I think it is very unlikely but possible.

1) The Union wins the Battle of Bull Run and the CSA Army scatters.
2) Only a fairly small number of troops reach Richmond.
3) A feeling that the Confederacy is doomed prevails in England and France
4) Overseas sales of CSA bonds fails miserably and has difficulty selling even in the CSA as some of the wealthy planters see it as throwing money away
5) The even worse supplied CSA army is unable to hold off the Union more than 3 weeks in Richmond and Richmond falls.
6) The rest of Virginia falls within a month
7) North Carolina being the least eager of the CSA states and seeing VA fall votes to return to the Union.
8) TN seeing itself outflanked and outnumbered falls to Union troops.
9) The Union mops up the rest of the CSA in a matter of a few months.
10) Many Union States are carved out of the west.
11) 4 years later Lincoln is re-elected. There is growing sentiment for abolitionism over the years as even a short war causes deaths and is blamed on slavery and the South can't even bluff about secession. The 13th amendment is then passed over Southern objections but since they were beaten so quickly few in the South are willing to fight another war over it.

This is a very good scenario for a quick Union victory, and would certainly set the road for eventual emancipation.

My only question is as Seleucus asked: how do they get enough Unionist states to get three-quarters of the states to pass an *13th amendment within 10 years? I can certainly see quite a few more free states carved out of some former slave states: Missouri would almost certainly go free, say they create East Tennessee as well, and maybe even a "North Georgia" out of the Appalachian regions of that state.

Even piling on a lot of a extra Western states would be difficult to manage within 10 years.

IIRC, "The Union Forever" has the Civil War ending in 1862/early 1863 with much less bloodshed than OTL. The PoD: McClellan breaks his back at the start of his Peninsular Campaign. :D

Thanks for the tip; I'll check that one out.
 
I'm not a huge fan of the Union Forever though in terms of plausibility - it uses Edwin Sumner as a skilled/competent/aggressive commander who's able to take Richmond in short order, which I find rather implausible. IOTL, Sumner led an inconclusive battle at Williamsburg (the main Union successes there came under Hancock, who'd insisted on holding his position despite being ordered by Sumner to withdraw) and led his Second Corps to an utterly disastrous attack at Antietam.
 
That is the difficult part, I admit but the OP states that slaves had to be freed within 10 years. Maybe the GOP is willing to buy all the slaves in Delaware and possibly Maryland to pass it and Delaware and MAYBE Maryland are willing to do so.

In either case you need a whole creation of states which is possible . There is more than enough room out west to carve out a considerable number of states.
But is there enough of a population?
 
ITYM "conditions"; a caveat is a warning.

Caveat can also be used in the sense of "qualification" or "restriction".

That's tricky. A quick Union victory, before the Emancipation Proclamation, makes abolition much harder. OTL's postwar shows that Southerners could be very ingenious in defense of their positions when given any opportunity.

Yes, this is the difficult part of the challenge. An early Union victory is perfectly possible - there's been some ideas in this thread already - but maks abolition hard within a short timeframe. A later (1863 onward) Union victory makes emancipation more or less guaranteed, but is of course bloodier. I'm curious where the balance between the two might lie.

Post-EP, general emancipation is easier, but ending the war quickly is not. One could improve the Union's fortunes in battle. Bruce Catton suggested that if the commanders of the Union Left and Right Grand Divisions had changed places, Fredericksburg might have been a decisive Union victory. But the CSA isn't going to fold up from one defeat. Even if it is a thundering success, with Jackson killed, Lee captured, and the Army of Northern Virginia effectively wrecked - it will still take the Union at least a year to finish off the CSA.

Perhaps a POD earlier in 1862? Something that would still be late enough to allow the EP, but more of a decisive blow against the CSA?
 
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