AHC: Least Bloody Union Victory in ACW

Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to come up with the least bloody way for the Union to with the American Civil War. Least bloody includes total military casualties on both sides.

There are a couple of important caveats:

(i) the PoD must be after 20 May 1861, i.e. after North Carolina votes to secede from the Union.
(ii) the Union victory must still result in the abolition of slavery within a reasonable timeframe after the war's end (say maximum of 8-10 years). It doesn't necessarily require much emancipation directly in the war itself, but eventual abolition must be a consequence of the Union victory.
 
Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to come up with the least bloody way for the Union to with the American Civil War. Least bloody includes total military casualties on both sides.

There are a couple of important caveats:

(i) the PoD must be after 20 May 1861, i.e. after North Carolina votes to secede from the Union.
(ii) the Union victory must still result in the abolition of slavery within a reasonable timeframe after the war's end (say maximum of 8-10 years). It doesn't necessarily require much emancipation directly in the war itself, but eventual abolition must be a consequence of the Union victory.

A Confederate loss at Bull Run might get the ball rolling on this one. It was one of those successes that gave the Southerners some hope that they might just be able to pull this little scheme off successfully. Without that, morale probably doesn't get the chance to go up. And if the Union wins enough of the critical battles that occurred IOTL, it's fairly possible that the war could have ended by, say, the spring of 1863, and not 1865 as in our world.
 
Shortly after the Deep South secedes, Lincoln sends Union troops into he capitals of the outer South, and ultimately dismisses the Virginia Congress when a secession bill comes before the Senate. The States that did secede don't attempt military action against the Union, and by 1862, they accept re-admittance into the Union having felt what an independent American South would be like economically. Lincoln is impeached in 1863 or 4 for dismissing Virginia's congress and, at any rate, because he's still not very well-liked by southernors, particularly those in the outer South states that he prevented from seceding. The Repiblican Party dies, hard, and Northern Democrats (who may form a splinter party) begin a gradual emancipation process that'll probably finish somewhere in the 1870s, which means longer periods of slavery, but no tenant farmer culture in the South. Atlanta remains a major hub in the United States' railroad industry, probably a secondary Chicago. Without the devestation of the Civil War and Reconstruction on the American South, St. Louis and New Orleans probably remain more important cities in the US. You'll probably have some VERY strong resistance to industrialization from the antebellum planter aristocracy on the South, but with the rise of domestic industrialization, particularly if textile manufacturing picks up in the South itself, the increased profits may appease them. Those who aren't appeased will probably be ruined anyway when the UK looks to Indian and Egyptian cotton as better sources than Dixie. You'll also likely have stronger leadership in the "Gilded Age," considering that it's harder to do worse than OTL in that regard - you could have an earlier US rise to power. If nothing else, the demographics play to this, with 600,000 men still alive.

Edit: not sure if this counts as a "Civil War" per se, but it falls after North Carolina's secession
 
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A Confederate loss at Bull Run might get the ball rolling on this one. It was one of those successes that gave the Southerners some hope that they might just be able to pull this little scheme off successfully. Without that, morale probably doesn't get the chance to go up. And if the Union wins enough of the critical battles that occurred IOTL, it's fairly possible that the war could have ended by, say, the spring of 1863, and not 1865 as in our world.

This and it might even fall apart earlier than Spring 1863. It might fall apart in 1862 or even 1861 if the cards fall right. Here is the quickest scenario I can come up with. I think it is very unlikely but possible.

1) The Union wins the Battle of Bull Run and the CSA Army scatters.
2) Only a fairly small number of troops reach Richmond.
3) A feeling that the Confederacy is doomed prevails in England and France
4) Overseas sales of CSA bonds fails miserably and has difficulty selling even in the CSA as some of the wealthy planters see it as throwing money away
5) The even worse supplied CSA army is unable to hold off the Union more than 3 weeks in Richmond and Richmond falls.
6) The rest of Virginia falls within a month
7) North Carolina being the least eager of the CSA states and seeing VA fall votes to return to the Union.
8) TN seeing itself outflanked and outnumbered falls to Union troops.
9) The Union mops up the rest of the CSA in a matter of a few months.
10) Many Union States are carved out of the west.
11) 4 years later Lincoln is re-elected. There is growing sentiment for abolitionism over the years as even a short war causes deaths and is blamed on slavery and the South can't even bluff about secession. The 13th amendment is then passed over Southern objections but since they were beaten so quickly few in the South are willing to fight another war over it.
 

U.S David

Banned
After the Deep South leaves, Lincoln is able to get the upper south to stay. After Federal Forces land in New Orleans and take Atlanta most fighting is done. The CSA Government tries a last stand in Alabama, but it fails.

Lincoln wins 4 years later in a landslide, and Slavery is now illegal. The West is tamed sooner.
 
Lincoln wins 4 years later in a landslide, and Slavery is now illegal. The West is tamed sooner.

Why would Lincoln abolish slavery after a brief Civil War? His platform OTL was one of national unity, not emancipation (during the Lincoln-Douglas debates, he claimed that he'd abolish slavery immediately if it held the Union together, and keep it indefinitely if it preserved the Union). Radical Republicsns would call for emancipation, but without a war as grueling as OTL's Civil War, people in the North won't have a reason to seek revenge on the South as OTL's carpetbaggers did, so Radical Republicans wouldn't have much support, regardless.
 
This and it might even fall apart earlier than Spring 1863. It might fall apart in 1862 or even 1861 if the cards fall right. Here is the quickest scenario I can come up with. I think it is very unlikely but possible.

1) The Union wins the Battle of Bull Run and the CSA Army scatters.
2) Only a fairly small number of troops reach Richmond.
3) A feeling that the Confederacy is doomed prevails in England and France
4) Overseas sales of CSA bonds fails miserably and has difficulty selling even in the CSA as some of the wealthy planters see it as throwing money away
5) The even worse supplied CSA army is unable to hold off the Union more than 3 weeks in Richmond and Richmond falls.
6) The rest of Virginia falls within a month
7) North Carolina being the least eager of the CSA states and seeing VA fall votes to return to the Union.
8) TN seeing itself outflanked and outnumbered falls to Union troops.
9) The Union mops up the rest of the CSA in a matter of a few months.
10) Many Union States are carved out of the west.
11) 4 years later Lincoln is re-elected. There is growing sentiment for abolitionism over the years as even a short war causes deaths and is blamed on slavery and the South can't even bluff about secession. The 13th amendment is then passed over Southern objections but since they were beaten so quickly few in the South are willing to fight another war over it.

Now that's a good one. :)
 
This and it might even fall apart earlier than Spring 1863. It might fall apart in 1862 or even 1861 if the cards fall right. Here is the quickest scenario I can come up with. I think it is very unlikely but possible.

1) The Union wins the Battle of Bull Run and the CSA Army scatters.
2) Only a fairly small number of troops reach Richmond.
3) A feeling that the Confederacy is doomed prevails in England and France
4) Overseas sales of CSA bonds fails miserably and has difficulty selling even in the CSA as some of the wealthy planters see it as throwing money away
5) The even worse supplied CSA army is unable to hold off the Union more than 3 weeks in Richmond and Richmond falls.
6) The rest of Virginia falls within a month
7) North Carolina being the least eager of the CSA states and seeing VA fall votes to return to the Union.
8) TN seeing itself outflanked and outnumbered falls to Union troops.
9) The Union mops up the rest of the CSA in a matter of a few months.
10) Many Union States are carved out of the west.
11) 4 years later Lincoln is re-elected. There is growing sentiment for abolitionism over the years as even a short war causes deaths and is blamed on slavery and the South can't even bluff about secession. The 13th amendment is then passed over Southern objections but since they were beaten so quickly few in the South are willing to fight another war over it.

I can believe everything.... except the 13th amendment being passed. How does that happen when you can't get the 2/3 majority without slave states?
 
IIRC, "The Union Forever" has the Civil War ending in 1862/early 1863 with much less bloodshed than OTL. The PoD: McClellan breaks his back at the start of his Peninsular Campaign. :D
 
Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to come up with the least bloody way for the Union to with the American Civil War. Least bloody includes total military casualties on both sides.

There are a couple of important caveats:

ITYM "conditions"; a caveat is a warning.

(i) the PoD must be after 20 May 1861, i.e. after North Carolina votes to secede from the Union.
(ii) the Union victory must still result in the abolition of slavery within a reasonable timeframe after the war's end (say maximum of 8-10 years).

That's tricky. A quick Union victory, before the Emancipation Proclamation, makes abolition much harder. OTL's postwar shows that Southerners could be very ingenious in defense of their positions when given any opportunity.

It doesn't necessarily require much emancipation directly in the war itself, but eventual abolition must be a consequence of the Union victory.

Eventual abolition is inevitable - but within 10 years is much harder.

As to the least bloody Union victory: the PoD is a decisive Union victory at Bull Run, with the Confederate Army of the Potomac routed, and several thousand rebels captured.

This humilition would deflate the secessionist bubble at the start. Kentucky would declare for the Union, and also probably the Civilized Tribes in Indian Territory. Most of the secessionists in Missouri would give up.

In the CSA, Unionists would press for the rescission of secession declarations. However, Lincoln, very determined to end the war, would pledge firmly that there would be no interference with slavery in any state that returned to the Union.

Tennessee, exposed to invasion, could be the first state to rescind secession. Virginia is weird - by the time of Bull Run, the "Union " government in western Virginia had formed, and declared the Richmond government illegitimate. But only the Richmond government can act for Virginia.

Still, if even one state gives in, and Lincoln pardons the rebels there, the rush for the exits could start.

But abolition later... It's very hard to see how it could happen. Is it enough to have gradual emancipation plans in place throughout the country? Even accomplishing that within ten years would be hard. (I do believe though that once that state is reached, general emancipation would happen fairly quickly. I.e. some years after gradual emancipation was adopted, there would be a move to just go ahead and emancipate all the slaves.)

Post-EP, general emancipation is easier, but ending the war quickly is not. One could improve the Union's fortunes in battle. Bruce Catton suggested that if the commanders of the Union Left and Right Grand Divisions had changed places, Fredericksburg might have been a decisive Union victory. But the CSA isn't going to fold up from one defeat. Even if it is a thundering success, with Jackson killed, Lee captured, and the Army of Northern Virginia effectively wrecked - it will still take the Union at least a year to finish off the CSA.

(It's also my opinion that once the EP is issued, Union victory = general emancipation. While the EP didn't affect the Border states and the Union-occupied parts of the South, I don't see how 80% of the slaves can be freed without destroying the institution.)
 
The 13th amendment is then passed over Southern objections but since they were beaten so quickly few in the South are willing to fight another war over it.

The problem is that any constitutional amendment requires not merely Southern acquiesence but Southern ratification.

There are 18 free states and 15 slave states in 1860. Assume Kansas, Nebraska, Nevada, and West Virginia are added to the free states during and just after the war (sort of like OTL). That makes 22 and 15. 29/37 will be required to ratify. If 9 of the 15 "Southern" slave states decline to ratify, the Amendment fails.

And without an Amendment, any one state can maintain slavery.

That's what makes it hard to get done in 8-10 years.
 
You keep adding states.

There were 15 slave states. Even today that would be enough to block an Amendment, which requires 3/4 of states to ratify. And Hawaii and Alaska aren't going to become states within 10 years.

Nor do I see the wholesale creation of states just to pass this Amendment. Creating a state has too many permanent implications.
 

U.S David

Banned
There were 15 slave states. Even today that would be enough to block an Amendment, which requires 3/4 of states to ratify. And Hawaii and Alaska aren't going to become states within 10 years.

Nor do I see the wholesale creation of states just to pass this Amendment. Creating a state has too many permanent implications.
But I doubt the states that left will have a say in this regard
 
There are 18 free states and 15 slave states in 1860.
That's also assuming that the free states care enough about slavery to end it in other states where it exists, which isn't a done deal. The New York Herald sold 75,000 copies a day in 1860 and was virulently pro-slavery.
 
McClellan destroys Lee's army at Antietam and marches on Richmond. Not hard, just needs a lack of total incompetence on McClellan's part.

Oh. Wait.
 
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