AHC: Latin 'Jaguars' ala the Asian tigers

  • Thread starter Deleted member 67076
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Deleted member 67076

Challenge here is to get a few Latin American countries to become the equivolent of the 4 Asian Tigers: previously agrarian and underdeveloped nations economies that manage to transition into "First World Countries" with a POD right after WW2.

Doesn't necessarily have to be with Tiger style ESI.
 
Latin Jaguars as a term was used in the middle nineties to describe some of the reformed economies of Latin America. Post-Pinochet Chile, Argentina under Menem and Cavallo, Peru under Fujimora, Bolivia under Sanchez de Lozada, and Mexico were the normal mentions. Mexican growth stalled after the 1994 peso crisis, and Argentina collapsed in the late nineties financial crisis because Cavallo kept the Argentine peso pegged to the US dollar too long. However, many of these countries could really be counted as agrarian (although Bolivia and Peru would be), although they were underdeveloped to varying degrees.

A group of Southern Cone countries is probably the best bet if you want fully developed economies. If you want simply uninterrupted high growth, then most of them could have continued if not for the late nineties Asian financial crisis. Reforms and financial stability could have continued, and when the commodities boom began under Chinese growth a decade later. Many of these countries however would still have not become "developed". There needs to be a transition to value-add industries for that to happen.

Unfortunately, much of Latin America lacks the infrastructure and education to transition to do so. Southern Cone is the only place that can be done, although Mexico is advancing along those lines.

Perhaps the best opportunity would be for Castro to not take over Cuba. Cuba would have been allowed to develop on its then path (which is actually nothing like popular myth holds, Cuba was very developed for its time; the rebellion against Batista was for political reasons (his coup), not for economic ones) and probably developed to present day. Without the pernicious influence of a Communist dictatorship, Latin America might have avoided a lot of terrible nonsense that afflicted the region from 1960-1980. That might have lead to more sane policies during those years. Even better if it is combined with the US not overthrowing the Arbenz government in Guatemala so we could see the creation of independent farmers from peons. Perhaps the two can be combined in some way.
 
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