MarshalBraginsky
Banned
Could some cash crops like potatoes and maize be introduced to Korea, or would it be a bad place to grow them?
AHC: Korean population explosion
- Thread starter Shtudmuffin
- Start date
Not really. I see your points concerning the Qing, but maintaining friendly relations does not necessarily mean that the majority of Joseon's population would just sit on their hands if an invasion occurred. For comparison, Joseon had maintained relatively cordial relations with the Japanese through the Tongsinsa for almost two centuries before war broke out. The wokou was an intermittent issue, but most raids died down after Joseon briefly occupied Tsushima in 1419, until they began flaring up again a century later, and both Joseon and the Japanese governments sought to resolve the issue. If anything, as Joseon did not truly accept the Qing as a legitimate dynasty, the fact that "barbarians" invaded and that Korea already had experiences with Mongol and Japanese invasions beforehand would make it likely for them to resist for at least 5-10 years afterward. Also, in both previous cases, a significant amount of the resistance was carried out by the commoners without leadership from the government or the military, so the opinions of the Korean scholar-gentry would not necessarily affect the population's viewpoints as a whole.
Cash crops and other methods boosting economic growth might help significantly, but unlike China or Japan, population remained relatively stagnant (10 million) for almost a millennium until the late 18th century, and the vast majority of the population had been scattered around rural areas, with very few populated cities. In other words, as I stated before, the challenge would be getting a significant amount of the population to move to cities within 50 years or so.
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I for one doubt Korea could become a world power, simply because of its location. Its surrounded by hostile nations ( China, Japan and later on Russia) who simply see it as a " buffer zone" and would intervene to stop any attempt to industrialize or expand- as in OTL. You would have to make it that there is some sort of upheaval or destabilisation amongst its rivals that it can take advantage of.
FDW
Banned
Depends on what "Korea" you're talking about. There's several of them that could've easily become major players if a few things went differently.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
For Japan, I thought about having the longer Sengoku period or a less ambitious Tokugawa, Hideyoshi or Nobunaga through the Date or whichever Japanese 'parliament' they have. For China, I'm not sure if continuous Mongol raids and/or an internal strife would have weakened them. In addition, could a worse Wokou pirate raids also help destabilize China?
Yes, but politics was also a major factor. For example, Sejong essentially created Hangul behind the literati's backs because he knew that it would receive vehement opposition from the court, even though the Hall of Worthies probably provided some research. Seonjo also briefly considered reestablishing a permanent army when Yi I suggested it in order to resist a possible Japanese invasion, but was overruled by the court. Later, the ministers overthrew Gwanghaegun because he was illegitimate, and his reorganizing of the military did not win them over. More than a century later, the court conspired to oust Prince Sado as the crown prince, and the ruler was forced to seal him in a box, where the prince died from starvation. Starting in the early 19th century, the Andong Kim clan dominated politics for almost half a century, and became powerful to the point where they were able to appoint a puppet ruler, but the clan lost power when Heongseon Daewongun managed to seize power and rule in place of his son, Gojong.
The court probably gained so much power because the state was founded based on balancing the ministers and the ruler, but in many cases, it also caused the ruler to have very little say in important matters. It also meant that talented generals/admirals, such as Yi Sun-shin, were essentially snubbed because of the fear of them staging a coup. It also didn't help that the state was Confucian, causing the military to rapidly decline after the Imjin War.
Well, it depends on what you're referring to. If you're talking about the date range specified in the OP, then although it isn't impossible, it's extremely unlikely for Korea to completely break free of foreign influence by 1900. If you're talking about Korean history in general, your statements are simply not true. Russia did not even appear in Asia until the 17th century or so, while Japan did not actively attempt to expand overseas until the 16th century. If Balhae and Silla had somehow unified by the 9th-10th century, or if Goguryeo had managed to unify the peninsula by 500, then you could see a Korea that would be more focused on trade, and the population would probably be around 75-100 million by 1900. However, this would require a Korea that cemented itself in Manchuria, and butterflies that would help to sustain relatively continual growth.
These events could probably make Korea slightly more powerful than IOTL, but unless you could radically change the structure and viewpoints of the government, which I briefly stated above, it would be extremely hard for the state to promote economic and military policies in order to achieve significant growth and stabilization.
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MarshalBraginsky
Banned
Is there an event in which the Joseon could you know, ditch Confucianism for something a bit more practical?
FDW
Banned
I'm going to say no to that, as it was by the Joseon dynasty literally the only method of government they knew, and they were actually proud of it and the role it provided them in the world.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
IN this case, I guess the Jurchens would have to come to Joseon instead. I mean, there is the thread, the Geum Dynasty, where the Manchus conquer Joseon instead of China.
I think the Manchu Monarchs could claim that they are related to the Silla dynasty in order to consolidate their rule in Korea.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
Well, it would literally take a beating for the Joseon kings to realize that the Confucian system doesn't work anymore.
HeavyWeaponsGuy
Banned
Technically they did build tons upon tons of infrastructure, though they kept Korea agrarian for the purposes of providing Japan with its breadbasket. Eventually however, Japan started building industry in Korea. The problem is that, like a whole lot of other projects of its kind, it was an entirely colonial venture. The factories were never meant to be anything other than extraction centers for exclusively Japanese benefit, even the mere idea of industrializing Korea existed because the Japanese felt it could more easily facilitate Japan's ambitions in China.
Honestly I don't see it turning out any other way. Could the Japanese build more than they did historically (Korea was getting a lot of it in the 30's, but by then the sun was already setting on Korean independence), of course, but that doesn't solve the underlying problem of when you have a Japanese factory owned by Japanese and at absolute most have the lower-level factory workers be Koreans working at piss wages, well then there really isn't much left for Seoul after Tokyo has taken what it wants.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
It was not until after WWII that Korean industry really began to benefit the Korean population though. On the other hand, much could have been done during the Joseon period in not only introducing cash crops, but also to maintain a maritime trade. Since Confucian doctrine discourages business dealings, the Chinese merchants settled outside China to keep their business. Why not have Korean merchant families establish themselves outside Korea? Primarily in SE Asia, though China is closer to SE Asia than Korea, but if there are several Korean merchant families that are willing to relocate, then their diaspora could grow. Maybe SE Asia would have Korean, not Chinese influences that might shape up with later European colonial administrations.
Example: the Philippines was normally settled by Chinese merchant families before the Spaniards came. Say if a few Korean merchants decided to set up shop in Luzon Island, they could have done so and marry into the local community. Alternatively, you could also have a pseudo-Mestizo de Sangley elsewhere in SE Asia, though they will have Korean, not Chinese blood.
Example: the Philippines was normally settled by Chinese merchant families before the Spaniards came. Say if a few Korean merchants decided to set up shop in Luzon Island, they could have done so and marry into the local community. Alternatively, you could also have a pseudo-Mestizo de Sangley elsewhere in SE Asia, though they will have Korean, not Chinese blood.
scholar
Banned
A challenge answered by increasing food production, which creates a larger population and a larger population density leading to the formation of larger towns and the movement to cities.
However, while china adopted cash crops, Korea did not. According to Westerners, Korea was more closed off and internalized to the outside world than the Shogunate or the most central of Asian Khanates. It only liked being accessed through China, as was not a pleasant state to deal with. As always, priests and missionaries were the first ones to make it in and propagate their faith but for the most part very little contact with the west was established. The scenario I proposed was designed to chagne that.
Further, 5-10 years is fine. We're talking centuries to recover, and as you said population remained relatively stable even through the Imjin War, a particularly bloody conflict.
scholar
Banned
More than that. Far. Far. More.
Even broken states do not abandon their religion nor their philosophy without its faults or horrors being shoved into their faces for decades. The Confucian System wasn't just an ideology, with was intrinsically tied towards Buddhism, the main religion. We're not asking Spain to become a republic inside the 15th century, we're asking them to become pagans in the process.
You don't change the Confucian System before it becomes clear that it can no longer function and must be changed by necessity, and even then maintain almost all the rituals and codes of conduct just without its official status. You have to morph it and shape it by creating compromises that do not clash too harshly with the established Dogma.
More efficient food production would help, but more efficient medical practices would also be necessary to reduce infant mortality. Utilizing the new methods would also take trial and error, as mountains cover about 70% of the peninsula, causing the farmers to adopt to different methods. Also, even though China and Japan had at least one city that exceeded a population of 1 million by 1900, Seoul, the largest city, probably had around several hundred thousand inhabitants around the same period. As a result, crowding the population into a handful of cities greatly increases the chances of diseases spreading, which would also reduce the population growth.
In terms of the population before then, I never stated that the population remained stable during the Imjin War. In fact, I realized that my previous statement concerning how Korea's population remained relatively stable over a millenium is also wrong as well. When Silla unified the peninsula, the population was probably around 8-9 million, based on how Baekje's was around 4 million. However, during Goryeo's existence, there were numerous conflicts with the Khitan, Jurchen, and Mongols, along with raids from the wokou, causing the population to actually decrease to around 6 million by the time that Joseon was founded.
In other words, two very costly conflicts with the Japanese and the Qing, during which they would be the first to essentially overrun the peninsula, would mean that the population could potentially decrease to 3-5 million. Also, if the Qing managed to control the peninsula within 1-2 years, the resistance movements could potentially last up to 10-20 years depending on how widespread they were, but if it took about 5-10 years to conquer the peninsula, then the resistance would probably still continue to last until around 5-10 years afterward. Of course, Korea's population could then gradually increase for about two centuries under Qing rule, then increase quickly for about 50 years or so afterward, but Korea's population would still have to be multiplied by 10 from the original 5 million, and still multiply by 5 to reach half that amount. For comparison, South Korea's population roughly doubled between 1945 and 1990, and although growth picked up during the late 60's, it never managed to surpass 3%.
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