Your challenge is, with a PoD between 1850 and 1900, is to allow for the Korean peninsula to experience a major population growth and lots of agricultural development akin to Meiji Japan. Bonus points if the population of the peninsula is equal to or greater than the population of Japan. So, how can it be done?
AHC: Korean population explosion
- Thread starter Shtudmuffin
- Start date
In my opinion the best way for it to happen is if Korea can manage to keep Japan and Russia at bay and play the two off diplomatically. Kinda like Thailand did with GB and France.
If Korea can keep it's independence then they can develop nicely and that would make people want to reproduce and it would probably also encourage immigration and those people could be absorbed in to say.
The last bet is to make Japanese rule benevolent. They build infrastructure and industry. Just a shame they were brutal bastards to put it lightly.
If Korea can keep it's independence then they can develop nicely and that would make people want to reproduce and it would probably also encourage immigration and those people could be absorbed in to say.
The last bet is to make Japanese rule benevolent. They build infrastructure and industry. Just a shame they were brutal bastards to put it lightly.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
Go back even before that, say during the late 16th century and butterfly the Imjin War, you could have a Korean population that stays intact and a ruler named Gwanghaegun could expand Korea's territory into Manchuria.
FDW
Banned
Wouldn't matter that much overall, the population within Korea would probably still hit malthusian limits. Though the additional territory beyond the Yalu and Tumen would probably have more people than OTL, Korea's overall situation via a vis China would be largely unchanged.
Possible, but considering that Korea's population did not exceed 20 million before 1900, Korea's population would have to more than double within a few decades or so to catch up to that of Japan. Even if the goal is to match Japan's population growth at the time, unless a significant amount of the rural population moved into urban areas, such as Seoul, it would be hard for Korea's population to exceed 25 million by 1920-30 or so. Also, even if Korea managed to retain independence after 1910, there is no guarantee that Japan would not invade Korea during World War II, which would cause a drastic decrease in population growth.
Even this POD would be too late to increase Korea's population by a significant amount. At most, Korea would probably have about 10-15 million settlers in Manchuria, and that would assume constant immigration and growth for almost three centuries. This would mean that Korea's population would be 25-35 million around 1900, depending on corresponding growth in the peninsula, which would mean that Korea would still have to double its population to catch up to Japan.
scholar
Banned
It gets conquered by the Qing, Korea is restored by nationalist rebels with backing from Japan and Europe. Said 'x' Dynasty of Korea takes its place, adopts western leaning ideas in regards to military and economic development while compromising with the scholar-gentry.
Economic Boom, Population Explosion.
Assuming that the Qing has a reason for doing so, and that Korea fails to remain independent after numerous guerilla uprisings, the population would probably fall below 10 million, due to fighting two extremely costly wars within half a century or so. In this scenario, the population would probably not exceed 15 million by 1910, which means that Korea's population would have to more than triple to catch up to that of Japan. Moving a significant amount of the rural population, which would be the vast majority, into the urban areas, would also be extremely difficult.
scholar
Banned
If Korea, say, refused to recognize the Qing Dynasty as the legitimate government of China and refused to send tribute and instead tried to sponsor a Zhu family refugee as the rightful Emperor, not only is an invasion likely, but if Korea proves to be resiliant in not being a dutiful client state that it was for most of its history it may be annexed.
The rest doesn't really connect with my post. During the time of the Qing's terminal decline, many states inside of the tributary network were freed from Qing's influence by revolts and European assistance, and China after an initial war, would be fine with them leaving. Desperate to hold onto its own rather than protect its inferiors. There's absolutely no reason to assume that fighting would occur for decades or that Korea would fail to remain independent. In fact, the compromise with the Scholar-gentry of Korea was to avoid any civil wars after independence, while the backing of Europe to make them more open to agricultural and military practices of Europe.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
I'm not exactly sure if this would lead to a Superpower Korea, or even just a Great Power Korea with a huge population growth. The Joseon kings would need a lot of luck if they would maintain such a population growth.
FDW
Banned
And what makes it worse is that the Joseon kings weren't exactly the brightest bulbs in the room.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
So in the worst case scenario, there would be no Joseon equivalent of Frederick the Great. (unless you count Yi Soon Shin, but he's a naval genius, not an army genius) Still, could there be an alternate civil war in Joseon that could have allowed Yi to rise into prominence?
Well, I didn't exactly specify which guerilla war I was talking about, so it's partially my fault, but you should probably have inferred which one it was, based on my comment of Korea failing to remain independent. I meant that a significant amount of Joseon soldiers, whether they were originally peasants or had already been to begin with, would continue to resist the Qing soon after it took over the peninsula. For comparison, Goryeo resisted the Mongols for almost 40 years, and even after the ruler capitulated, the Sambyeolcho Rebellion lasted for three years afterward. As Joseon had recently repelled the Japanese by harassing the navy under Yi Sun-shin's leadership, and eventually stalled the army through guerilla warfare, it's very possible for Joseon to attempt to do the same a few decades later. However, this would also come at a terrible cost, as the population would be devastated, as I stated earlier.
Technically, it would be possible with the right butterflies, but he would first have to survive the Imjin War, and he would need to receive nearly unanimous backing from the military and the court, which would be hard to accomplish.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
Because the Joseon courts didn't like Yi? I mean, there could be a succession crisis within the Joseon kings that may allow Admiral Yi to establish himself as a capable military dictator.
I see what you mean. However, the problem is that the court was divided into several factions. After the Imjin War, the Northern Faction, which was the dominant one at the time, was influential enough to only award titles/awards to generals from certain regions. They would also feel that Yi Sun-shin would be too powerful for them to control, probably either sentencing him to death or exiling him, as they attempted to do so before the second Japanese invasion, before a civil war could break out.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
So how does the Northern Faction get weakened? Could the Jurchens actually pounce on Joseon and at the same time, give the Japanese a hard time?
Well, if you're suggesting that the Jurchens attack Joseon when the Japanese are invading, that wouldn't be likely either. The Jurchens actually offered help to Joseon in order to maintain a friendly relationship, but Joseon rejected them because they viewed them as barbarians. Even if another faction did rise to power, it would still be wary of Yi Sun-shin for fear that he would actually take over the government.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
So in this case, could a more, pragmatic leadership in the north or south be the one to accept help from the Jurchens? f not Yi, then Gwanghaegun, though he may have less chance of succeeding. Or if Nurhaci decides to conquer Joseon instead.
scholar
Banned
Ah, but here's the thing. The Koreans would not react to the Qing as they would the Mongols because the Koreans had relations with the Jurchens before this and it was nowhere near the level of hostility the Koreans had for the Mongols. They would be a resistance and a few revolts, but it would not be anything like with the Mongols. Keep in mind the Qing was a Manchu state trying to be Chinese while keeping some of its own customs, it was not a genocide-happy conquest machine that wants to see the world burn or bow.
Its possible, but it shouldn't expected as a given that would happen. Especially after the Qing receives the full backing of the scholar-gentry of China.
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Also... China's population jumped from 140 million to 300 million in the space of 50 or so years after the introduction of new cash crops. Population can grow really quickly when the stars align, no matter how devastating it was before. Japan's another example of how fast a broken country can become an economic powerhouse.