AHC: Korea remains under Japanese control

Your challenge, would you choose to accept it, is to make all of the Korean peninsula remains under Japanese control as of 2012. I would accept Korea being part of a federal or democratized Japan. The POD must be no earlier than the assassination of Hirobumi Ito in 1909. Bonus if Japan retains control of Manchuria until at least the 1990s.
 
Your challenge, would you choose to accept it, is to make all of the Korean peninsula remains under Japanese control as of 2012. I would accept Korea being part of a federal or democratized Japan. The POD must be no earlier than the assassination of Hirobumi Ito in 1909. Bonus if Japan retains control of Manchuria until at least the 1990s.

Korea never attacks Pearl Harbor. Preferably they never take Indochina either. Japan doesn't join the war and so they keep Manchuria, Korea and Taiwan after the war. The Communists somehow win the Chinese Civil War. A war between China and Japan in the late 1950s/1960s result in the Chinese annexation of Manchuria. Due to their embarassing defeat to the Chinese, the Japanese military is discredited. A democratic government comes to power. Meanwhile, Korean nationalists are getting more and more militant. In response, Japan federalises over provincial levels. Korea is divided into 4 provinces, whilst Japan is approx. 12. All Koreans are given Japanese citizenship, and the benefits that brings, as Japan focuses more on its economy than military expansion. In fact, due to proximity with the Soviet Union and China, Koreans form a disproportionately high amount of the Japanese Army, although ethnic Japanese still dominate the Navy and Air Force. Perhaps Japan changes it's name and becomes the Dual Monarchy of Japan-Korea under the Japanese Emperor. In this scenario, Japan isn't as rich as OTL, and more threatened by the Russians, unless it cultivates some alliance, probably with the US or Britain (if they're still a big player). So many butterflies though, hard to be specific, but I suppose this could hold out for the long term.
 

Eurofed

Banned

I would otherwise agree, except ITTL Japan-Korea would be considerably more, not less, wealthy than OTL Japan. It would combine the population and resources of a fully industrialized Home Islands, united Korea, and Taiwan.
 
yeah, but it would still have to spend a relatively significant amount on it's military, without American protection. Also, it wont have an injection of foreign capital (although it wouldn't be in rubble like OTL after WWII). I just don't see the Japanese economic miracle happening without 1) relatively free access to Western markets and 2) starting from scratch. But like a lot of economics, it all depends who you get running the show and what their attitude is.
 
Korea never attacks Pearl Harbor. Preferably they never take Indochina either. Japan doesn't join the war and so they keep Manchuria, Korea and Taiwan after the war. The Communists somehow win the Chinese Civil War. A war between China and Japan in the late 1950s/1960s result in the Chinese annexation of Manchuria. Due to their embarassing defeat to the Chinese, the Japanese military is discredited. A democratic government comes to power. Meanwhile, Korean nationalists are getting more and more militant. In response, Japan federalises over provincial levels. Korea is divided into 4 provinces, whilst Japan is approx. 12. All Koreans are given Japanese citizenship, and the benefits that brings, as Japan focuses more on its economy than military expansion. In fact, due to proximity with the Soviet Union and China, Koreans form a disproportionately high amount of the Japanese Army, although ethnic Japanese still dominate the Navy and Air Force. Perhaps Japan changes it's name and becomes the Dual Monarchy of Japan-Korea under the Japanese Emperor. In this scenario, Japan isn't as rich as OTL, and more threatened by the Russians, unless it cultivates some alliance, probably with the US or Britain (if they're still a big player). So many butterflies though, hard to be specific, but I suppose this could hold out for the long term.

You're going to need to somehow prevent the oil embargo if you want a Japan that stays out of the war to be possible. Otherwise the war effort in China is just going to collapse, and a military occupation of Machuria become untenable;e/
 
Korea never attacks Pearl Harbor. Preferably they never take Indochina either. Japan doesn't join the war and so they keep Manchuria, Korea and Taiwan after the war. The Communists somehow win the Chinese Civil War. A war between China and Japan in the late 1950s/1960s result in the Chinese annexation of Manchuria. Due to their embarassing defeat to the Chinese, the Japanese military is discredited. A democratic government comes to power.
Hmmm.... "Korea never attacks Pearl Harbor" looks like an interesting PoD:)

Korea staying part of Japan means either Japan is so strong that the rest of the world doesn't dare interfere (like they didn't with Soviet oppression of minorities), or that the Koreans WANT to stay with Japan.

To get the first, I think we need a PoD back in the 20s or 30s. Keep Japan out of China, so they don't waste their strength their and so the Kwantung Army doesn't set foreign policy by assassinations.

Then a multi-lateral empire of Japan/Korea/Manchuria/Taiwan would be largish, strongish and might manage to hold on. Voting would probably be extended to enough locals (probably ones who were superficially Japanized) to make people feel they had some say. Korea might, MIGHT end up feeling that, while they'd rather be independent, that that's a total pipedream, and they might as well work towards the best possible deal within the Empire.

That, in turn, would require a better Japanese handling of Korea - but that might be possible. Possibly the 'success' of Taiwan means that branch of the colonial office (originally navy trained) is given authority over Korea as well, and fires the worst of the (army trained) Korean colonial officials.

It's tough.
 
Korea never attacks Pearl Harbor. Preferably they never take Indochina either. Japan doesn't join the war and so they keep Manchuria, Korea and Taiwan after the war. The Communists somehow win the Chinese Civil War. A war between China and Japan in the late 1950s/1960s result in the Chinese annexation of Manchuria. Due to their embarassing defeat to the Chinese, the Japanese military is discredited. A democratic government comes to power. Meanwhile, Korean nationalists are getting more and more militant. In response, Japan federalises over provincial levels. Korea is divided into 4 provinces, whilst Japan is approx. 12. All Koreans are given Japanese citizenship, and the benefits that brings, as Japan focuses more on its economy than military expansion. In fact, due to proximity with the Soviet Union and China, Koreans form a disproportionately high amount of the Japanese Army, although ethnic Japanese still dominate the Navy and Air Force. Perhaps Japan changes it's name and becomes the Dual Monarchy of Japan-Korea under the Japanese Emperor. In this scenario, Japan isn't as rich as OTL, and more threatened by the Russians, unless it cultivates some alliance, probably with the US or Britain (if they're still a big player). So many butterflies though, hard to be specific, but I suppose this could hold out for the long term.

in that scenario japan would be almost guaranteed to have atom bombs (assuming they have been build and dropped on germany). china shortly after japan. but for a time japan has first strike capacity.
 
And what make you think the Koreans will ALWAYS tolerate the 'nihon yoke' forever? Remember, it was not Taiwan. Koreans had been.. misstreated by japaneses.

It will be a cold land Vietnam war one day. maybe, a war of liberation.
 
No Pearl Harbor. Even if the Soviets stay out, the Americans will demand unconditional surrender after the "treacherous" Pearl Harbor attack, the mistreatment of American troops in the Phillippines, etc. and they'll insist on a free Korea.

Maybe a more limited Pacific War that leads to the Japanese expulsion from SE Asia, China, and probably Manchuria but not a total defeat that leaves them in control of Korea?

The problem with that is, the Soviets are in a very good position to come in and take Korea anyway. Japan will have been very weakened and the Soviets have an axe to grind dating back to 1905.
 

Eurofed

Banned
And what make you think the Koreans will ALWAYS tolerate the 'nihon yoke' forever? Remember, it was not Taiwan. Koreans had been.. misstreated by japaneses.

But again, the problem is also the koreans, and the harsh legacy of the brutal colonialism.

Showa Japan behaved horrendously in other parts of Asia, true, but the harshness of Japanese rule in Korea, and the degree of resistance it got from most Koreans, have been greately exaggerated by postwar Korean nationalism. Prewar Japan aimed to assimilate Korea (and Taiwan), and the process was underway.
 
Hmmm. Maybe if instead of a POD at Pearl Harbor, we have a POD after the annexation of Korea but before atrocities start, and avoid those from occuring, but I have no ideas of the butterfiles that would cause. Also, if we stopped Japan from occupying Indochina, there wouldn't be the embargo.

Haha, typo about "Korea attacks Pearl Harbor" :p
 
Showa Japan behaved horrendously in other parts of Asia, true, but the harshness of Japanese rule in Korea, and the degree of resistance it got from most Koreans, have been greately exaggerated by postwar Korean nationalism. Prewar Japan aimed to assimilate Korea (and Taiwan), and the process was underway.

And underplayed by japanese radical nationalists too.
 
*No Pearl Harbor. Japan works very hard not to antagonize the US to any degree beyond what is absolutely necessary and the Japanese Navy is told to avoid American targets whenever possible.
*Japan still takes control of French Indochina as OTL and heavily plays the "Asia for Asians" card. They also approach the British and negotiate a deal: In exchange for resources and security in the East they get a "protectorate" over the Dutch East Indies, a free hand in China, and preferential trading rights in Hong Kong. In return Tokyo renounces the Tri-Partiate Pact and joins the Allies
*US enters war in August 1942 and it is not nearly as popular as OTL on hte homefront but a Germany with the possibility of dominating Europe can not be denied. They do not declare war on a fellow Ally and make it clear further adventures in Asia will not be tolerated. Much of coastal China ends up in Japanese hands following the Treaty of Mumbai in 1944, the rest becomes a series of rump warlord republics that answer to Tokyo.
*After the war decolonial influence leans many to follow Japan's lead as satellite states. Japan gets her Co-Prosperity Sphere without nearly the loss of life or resentment that outright conquest would bring. At the same time she keeps most of modern eastern China, Korea, Taiwan, and Indochina along with many smaler Pacific Islands.
*By 1990 the Co-Prosperity Sphere is one of the leading economic powerhouses and with the fall of the USSR talent finds its way to the major research centers at Tokyo, Osaka, Seoul, Taipei, and Shanghai. A common currency is brought into being and is more stable than the Euro though less than the dollar.
*By 2010 the economy sees languish in Bangladesh and Indonesia but bailouts from Tokyo prove fruitful, the E.A.C.P.S. now includes Afghanistan, Persia, India, and Pakistan with control of all of Asia outside of Russia and the Middle East. Japan herself, now called the Dragon Empire, rules much of the eastern third of China along with the aforementioned areas
 
*No Pearl Harbor. Japan works very hard not to antagonize the US to any degree beyond what is absolutely necessary and the Japanese Navy is told to avoid American targets whenever possible.
*Japan still takes control of French Indochina as OTL and heavily plays the "Asia for Asians" card. They also approach the British and negotiate a deal: In exchange for resources and security in the East they get a "protectorate" over the Dutch East Indies, a free hand in China, and preferential trading rights in Hong Kong. In return Tokyo renounces the Tri-Partiate Pact and joins the Allies
*US enters war in August 1942 and it is not nearly as popular as OTL on the homefront but a Germany with the possibility of dominating Europe can not be denied. They do not declare war on a fellow Ally and make it clear further adventures in Asia will not be tolerated. Much of coastal China ends up in Japanese hands following the Treaty of Mumbai in 1944, the rest becomes a series of rump warlord republics that answer to Tokyo.
*After the war decolonial influence leans many to follow Japan's lead as satellite states. Japan gets her Co-Prosperity Sphere without nearly the loss of life or resentment that outright conquest would bring. At the same time she keeps most of modern eastern China, Korea, Taiwan, and Indochina along with many smaler Pacific Islands.
*By 1990 the Co-Prosperity Sphere is one of the leading economic powerhouses and with the fall of the USSR talent finds its way to the major research centers at Tokyo, Osaka, Seoul, Taipei, and Shanghai. A common currency is brought into being and is more stable than the Euro though less than the dollar.
*By 2010 the economy sees languish in Bangladesh and Indonesia but bailouts from Tokyo prove fruitful, the E.A.C.P.S. now includes Afghanistan, Persia, India, and Pakistan with control of all of Asia outside of Russia and the Middle East. Japan herself, now called the Dragon Empire, rules much of the eastern third of China along with the aforementioned areas

Although the last bits sound cool, most if not all of these ideas are implausible. I hate to be a bubble-burster, but if the Japanese take Indochina, they will get embargoed. And the Dutch are NOT going to give away the East Indies. It has oil for the Allies, is their last major possession, and theoretically they could raise an army in Indonesia for the liberation of Europe. And how come if further Japanese ventures won't be tolerated, they get Eastern China?
 

gaijin

Banned
Not to mention Indonesian food and Indonesian women. Much much much better than the native Dutch alternatives. Speaking from experience here.:D
 
Top