AHC - Korea not colonized in 19th or 20th century-

raharris1973

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The challenge is to not have Korea colonized.

The later the PoD, the higher the point value.

The greater the degree of Korean independence, the higher the point value.

The less Russia and China have to do with keeping out the Japanese, the higher the point value.
 
I think Korea had a good chance OTL of being opened up in a similar way to Japan. They wouldn't necessarily need to pull a Meji, but let's say for a moment that during the early 19th Century British merchants travelling from China come across Korea in the Yellow Sea and discover its potential. They occupy Cheju-do, that island to the south, and practically muscle their way into Korea's economy. With British tech and economic activity, Korea manages to modernise, probably not to the same extent as Japan though, but enough to stave off other Europeans.

Soon after, Korea opens its doors to traders from all over Europe and America. When Japan and Russia start getting sweaty about it, Korea and its allies in Britain manage to diplomatically keep the two powers out.

*shrug*. It's an attempt.
 
It wouldn't be that hard, as in terms of "pulling a Meiji" potential Korea was a lot closer to Japan than, say, Ethiopia. Economically relatively advanced, socially and politically reasonably stable.

Increasing Korea's strength would help. I don't think you need to prevent the Imjin War, but a PoD in that area would be extremely helpful. Korea was much, much more isolated than Japan and as much as people tend to look down on Tokugawa's policies, they secured isolation while allowing European science and knowledge to slowly but surely trickle in through the discipline of "Dutch science". It was these centuries of intellectual contact that made it possible for the Meiji revolution to occur, while the Gabo reforms found it much more difficult. In short, some sort of change that prevents Korea from falling behind Japan economically and technologically during the 17th-19th century would be very helpful in setting up a Korea that can emulate the West later.

Western traders in Jeju-do would help. Plenty of contenders, actually. The Dutch, Portugeuse or British starting from the 15th-16th century. Keep them isolated, though, to prevent Christianity being a disruptive social influence (as it was in Japan, and it was in Korea later, in the form of so-called Sohak, or Western Learning). This kind of thing would keep Korea much closer economically with Japan, and increase the chances of the Gabo reforms or their analogue to be successful.

But, even with Korea's disadvantage you could probably pull off something even with only a 19th century PoD. There were serious proposals for a Franco-American expedition against the Joseon some time in the 1850's to take revenge on the murder of French missionaries and the destruction of the General Sherman,an American vessel that was burned as it tried to sail to Pyongyang and open trade. It never happened. Korea is somewhat less vulnerable to gunboat diplomacy than Japan, due to higher and steeper coastlines and a tendency to put their capitals and important cities further from the sea.

But, I think a concentrated effort by French and American forces would have been successful, and following that one could easily see Korea opened up to trade forcibly. Unequal trade treaties with the French and Americans, and then the British and Russians, would follow. Hopefully big power politics would be enough to keep Korea from being swallowed up by anyone, and with a decade-ish of a head start on Japan, the Koreans might have been able to overcome their disadvantages and strengthen themselves enough that Korea can maintain it's independence on it's own terms. On such a world, Japan might find itself initially taking cues from Korea's example, rather than the other way around.

An even later PoD would require neutralizing or reducing some of Japan's annexationist policies. There were many in Japan who supported Korea as it was, and saw themselves as helping uplift Korea to a higher stage. Even after occupation and annexation, the Japanese used Korean nationalism for their own ends. It would take some Japanese domestic policy changes, but if Japan was less expansionist it might maintain it's role as the "big brother" nation. Perhaps a Japanese defeat in the Russo-Japanese War? Korea falls temporarily into Russian domination, but later revolutionary troubles see the Russians replaced by the Japanese. The Japanese, far less self-confident than in OTL, don't see Korea as a "dagger to the heart of the motherland", but rather as a potentially valuable buffer zone against future Russian aggression. Japanese investment and aid, and leftover Russian weapons and training, produce an independent and viable Korea in the 1920's.

So, there's three possible ways. Korean weakness can be traced to it's extreme isolation since the 16th century. However, the wrong kind of opening-up can create vulnerability to absorption into someone else's empire. A controlled opening, at the right time, is the best way to produce a non-colonized Korea.
 
Just out of curiosity, is Inchon a viable port city to be occupied by foreign troops? It's relatively close to Seoul as well...

I'm going off a globe though so it's difficult to see just how close or far some cities are from the coast.
 
Going off of my amateur Wiki based knowledge of the subject in question, I would say that Korea almost managed it in OTL. If you can prevent the assaination of Empress Myeongseong, then Korea should be able to play enough foreign powers off Japan long enough to modernize their army and navy. According to the article, one of the reasons Japan acted when they did was fear that the Korean army would soon be strong enough to face them.
 
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Going off of my amateur Wiki based knowledge of the subject in question, I would say that Korea almost managed it in OTL. If you can prevent the assaination of Empress Myeongseong, then Korea should be able to play enough foreign powers off Japan long enough to modernize their army and navy. According to the article, one of the reasons Japan acted when they did was fear that the Korean army would soon be strong enough to face them.

I agree. Though, if you can have the Daewongun's political influence that would certainly helped.

Part of problem is that Korea has some people who wanted to cling to being under China, and the other extreme who wanted to modernize with Japan.
Empress Myeongseong wanted a more middle route that still had good relations with China. Maybe a greater realization that China is weakening(China had convinced Korea that they weren't) would help. I believe she did try to use Russia to counter the Japanese. Maybe she tries to garner more influence with the United States instead?
Likely the main key to get the United States more involved is to get them convinced that Japan would interfere, rather then help, with the modernization of Korea.
 
Just out of curiosity, is Inchon a viable port city to be occupied by foreign troops? It's relatively close to Seoul as well...

Not sure, actually, and I'm not sure how developed as a port it was. I believe it was used for some trade with China, but that might have been a 19th century development.

I know that the French attacked the nearby Ganghwa island, but I'm not sure why.

I'm going off a globe though so it's difficult to see just how close or far some cities are from the coast.

The thing is, the standard Korean defence that they used in the case of foreign invasion tended to be "run into the mountains, defend from there". It worked quite well most of the time. The coastline wasn't very well developed, the Koreans didn't pay all that much attention to the sea once the wokou raids tapered off. So there would be precious little for Western ships to bombard.
 
There were serious proposals for a Franco-American expedition against the Joseon some time in the 1850's to take revenge on the murder of French missionaries and the destruction of the General Sherman,an American vessel that was burned as it tried to sail to Pyongyang and open trade.

That can't be right, the General Sherman incident was in 1866.

How about a Sino-Japanese war over the Ryukyus in the 1870s leaving both powers too exhausted to try anything against Korea? You'd have to keep the peninsula from becoming their battlefield, however, and the Russians from filling the power vacuum after the war.
 
That can't be right, the General Sherman incident was in 1866.

Wow, you're right, I must have got my dates wrong somehow. Something happened in the 1850's...I'll get back to you on that when I can remember. Anyway, you're right, both the General Sherman and the abortive French attack on Ganghwa were in 1866, so this means that it was perhaps a matter of timing. Delay the persecution of the French Catholics by a few months, perhaps, pushing French intervention a couple of months later to coincide with the Americans wanting revenge for the General Sherman. So, perhaps a joint French-American expedition in 1867.

This would mean that Korea would still be a decade behind Japan in opening up (I think I was confused by the date of the fall of Sakoku), but it would probably be in a much better position compared to OTL.

Interestingly, it seems that some Korean government officials were pushing for a French alliance in response to Russian incursions along the Pacific coast, but the Daewongun's paranoia over the results of the Opium War in China vis-a-vis big-nosed foreigners meant that this turned into an anti-Catholic/French crackdown instead. Perhaps all it would take would be Daewongun choking on a rice cake for the Koreans to open up trade relations and an alliance with the French. That would mean that when the General Sherman blundered it's way along the coast, they would be less likely to be slaughtered out of hand and more likely to be pointed in the direction of the nearest French legate.

How about a Sino-Japanese war over the Ryukyus in the 1870s leaving both powers too exhausted to try anything against Korea? You'd have to keep the peninsula from becoming their battlefield, however, and the Russians from filling the power vacuum after the war.
Seems a bit early for Japan to be exerting that amount of power against the Chinese, they may well lose. This could simply spur more naval development by the Qing in this crucial period, meaning that Korea might end up staying in the Chinese orbit. While not "colonized" as such, it wouldn't exactly be a very independent party either.
 
There are several possibilities which could make this possible. The earliest possible time would be during (Go)joseon or Goguryeo, when the former could have unified resistance against Han China more effectively or the latter could have unified Korea at around 400-500, but that’s another story.

The earliest time during the last 500 years would be during the Imjin War. Because the aristocrats had firm control over the country, the king ignored Yi I, a Joseon scholar who planned out several armies scattered around the country to repel a possible Japanese invasion. The Imjin War occurred only eight years after his death, but if armed forces totaling about 100,000-250,000 had been trained and set up, then the Japanese, who invaded with about the same amount, would have been quickly repelled. This is not even considering the Joseon navy, which had been developed ever since they attacked Tsushima during King Sejong in response to pirate raids. Korea certainly had the advantage of geography during this war, and various land and sea generals, including Yi Sun-sin, certainly used this to their advantage. For example, Yi repelled 333 ships in the battle of Myeongyang with only 13 by utilizing currents in the area.

One possibility, in line with the above, that would cause further issues for Japan, would be Joseon and possibly Ming China invading Japan in retaliation for previous attacks. However, this would be extremely unlikely, and would require a severe drain in resources for all countries involved. This would most likely lead to a Japanese victory, but in either case, if Japan loses the war within 1-3 years, then the country would be thrown into chaos, possibly resulting in instability and division once more. Further butterflies would render Japan too fragmented to rebuild effectively, resulting in increasing influence first by Joseon and Ming/Qing, then possibly the Western powers in the 18th-19th centuries.

Another possibility, which could occur either with or without the previous POD, would be Joseon paying more attention to its military before the Qing conquers China. It could either take control of most of Manchuria before the Ming encounters the Manchus, or do so during the struggle between the two countries by coming to the Ming’s aid. Either way, Joseon would then gain land and some natural resources, leading to an increase in population and a strengthening of the central government. This would most likely happen if Gwanghaegun was not deposed as in OTL and instead reformed the military, which was already going into decline after the Imjin War. Although there are critical viewpoints of him, he was very capable, and encouraged the arts, while pursuing diplomatic affairs with the Ming, Manchus, and Japan. Although his forces lost to the Manchus, this could have led him to strengthen his troops and eventually emerge as the victor. The Ming would not have been concerned about Joseon’s expansion because it was more focused on weakening or defeating the Manchus instead of expanding territory.

The third possibility would be more aggressive Western intervention in Joseon affairs in the 18th-19th centuries. As stated before in other responses, traders could land in Jeju Island in order to demand trade. If the military is not developed, which is extremely likely after dismissing the previous options, the government would have no choice but to sign unequal treaties with the Europeans. Of course, it would be highly unlikely for Korea to undergo a “Meiji” of sorts, considering that the power was still in the hands of the aristocracy until Heungseon Daewongun in 1863. As a result, it would be absolutely imperative for foreign intervention before 1860 so the country would be able to look at policies ranging from military to cultural and political reforms. At the very least, Korea would be able to cut off tributary relations with the Qing and start embarking on technological reforms, while at the most, Korea could send people to Western countries like Japan did in OTL in order to learn more about their customs. In any case, this would completely change East Asian affairs in possibly World War I and definitely World War II.

On the other hand, if Korea does manage to retain a significant army in the 18th century due to either or both of the options concerning Japan and the Ming/Qing, then technological reforms probably will not occur until the late 1890s, similar to OTL, and other changes would take place much more slowly. However, this also might lead to more attempts from the West, which would have unpredictable consequences that would depend on the political atmosphere at the time.

The last possibility, which might be too late for Joseon, would be for either Heungseon Daewongun or the royal family (Emperor Gojong/Empress Myeongseong) to side definitively with Japan, China, or Russia. The latter would most likely be an unacceptable option because it might eventually lead to Korea’s absorption into the Russian Empire, and later population deportations, eliminating Korea as a country. It is absolutely necessary that Korea does not play the powers off against each other, because that occurred in OTL, and would ultimately lead to becoming a colony in any form. However, an alternative option would be paying closer attention to the Western powers, as in the third possibility. Ultimately, Joseon would probably become the Korean Empire in 1970-1990 in order to signify a change of relations with China, but because the political factions frequently conflicted with each other and there was no dominant position, it would be extremely hard for Korea to escape colonization if the situation diverged from OTL after 1960.

Now I’m really tempted to do all of these timelines . . .

Edit: I realized that my timeline already incorporates most of these possibilities.
 
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