So the challenge for the thread is to find a way to kill Embraer, either before it—or similar company—is founded or some time afterwards. The obvious solution would seem to be around the time of its privatisation when it was in trouble financially, but not being very familiar with the company's history and having to work via Google Translate due to not speaking Portuguese I thought I'd see if there were any other suggestions. This is mainly to do with rejigging the smaller narrow-body medium-range end of the aviation market with a possibly still surviving Fokker and clearing the field of the E-Jets/E2 makes that easier. Thanks.
AHC: Kill Embraer
They might be facing some headwinds at the moment and currently be in the middle of of talks about setting up a joint venture with Boeing to mirror Bombardier and Airbus' one, but the whole point of the deal is because their E-Jet and E2 models are successful. Unless you're referring to something else?
A series of accidents involving the E-120 Brasilia early in their entry into service such that they get a bad public reputation might do it. You basically need the public to believe that the company builds third world unsafe aircraft that kills the E-135/E145 programs. Perhaps another couple of accidents around the time of the 1991 crash involving John Tower also involving prominent people so the accidents receive widespread public attention.
Now that is a very good idea - I had quite forgotten that the plane that Tower died in was an Embraer, and the timing lines up rather nicely. Problems with the Brasilia sees fewer sales and a poor reputation develop, the ERJ programme either ends up cancelled like the Vector or delayed, possibly throw in Pilatus being an earlier and stronger competitor on the military side against the Tucano. The government either decides to cut back funding, effectively shutting down the airliner side of things, and privatises the company on the strength of its other operations or privatises it with the unspoken understanding that the new owners will be allowed to shut that side of the company and spin off the other operations with only pro forma protests.
Another thing would be avoiding their license producing Piper aircraft early on. Maybe Piper, or one of their main competitors Cessna and Beechcraft, spotting an opportunity decide to set up their own subsidiary to take advantage of the economic conditions. IIRC Embraer built over two thousand of them from the mid-1970s onwards. They'd still have the license-produced MB-326, the Ipanema, and the Bandeirante, but it knocks out another revenue stream.
Can we keep politics to Chat thanks.