AHC Kentucky secedes

What would be necessary that Kentucky secedes like other states of the upper south like TN and VA?

With a POD no later than 1856/60 if possible....
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Outright Unionists somewhat outnumbered outright pro-Confederates in Kentucky during secession winter, but most Kentuckians were neutral fence-sitters. Lincoln's adroit political maneuvering was enough IOTL to keep Kentucky in the Union, but had he made a few missteps it might have been enough to push Kentucky into secession.

If the Fort Sumter crisis had gone a different way and the end result was to have the appearance of Northern aggression against the South instead of the other way around, Kentucky might have been pushed into secession. Remember that, even IOTL, Kentucky refused to contribute the requested regiments to the United States as part of the initial call up issued by Lincoln and tried to remain neutral as long as possible. So if Lincoln had mishandled the initial crisis and came out looking like the aggressor, the pro-secession elements might not have boycotted the 1861 elections and the state legislature would thus have had a much stronger secessionist element (though likely not a majority). This, combined with inevitably movements of Union forces into Kentucky, might have led to a Kentucky secession, unless Confederate troops move in first, as they did IOTL.

Alternatively, one could envision a scenario in which General Polk does not move into Columbus in September, 1861, as he did IOTL, and the Union forces occupy Paducah, thereby being the first to commit a major violation of Kentucky neutrality. Combined with the political fallout from John Fremont unilateral emancipation proclamation, might have been enough to drive the fence-sitters into the pro-Confederate camp. The legal government would still be Unionists, since this POD would have taken place after the state elections in August, but many more Kentuckians would have flocked to the Confederate Kentucky government than was the case IOTL and it would thereby have had greater credibility with the people.
 
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TFSmith121

Banned
Odds are actually very long against this, if history

What would be necessary that Kentucky secedes like other states of the upper south like TN and VA?

With a POD no later than 1856/60 if possible....

Odds are actually very long against this, if history is the guide ...

In 1861, the "neutrality" vote was about the MOST the pro-rebel faction in the State Legislature was able to get; the Legislature was evenly divided before the August, 1861 election; given that election gave a 3-1 advantage in both houses to the pro-Union side, the state was not going to secede.

Likewise, no one boycotts an election they are going to have a shot at winning; because of the results of the June, 1861 Congressional election, nine loyalists were elected to one pro-secessionists (54,000 vote majority, in fact), which put the writing on the wall.

There's also the reality that there were strong loyalist forces in place, even by the middle of 1861; the State Guard, which included loyalists along with Magoffin's partisans, was backed up by the Home Guards (outside of the governor's authority, with some 10,000 being armed by the federal government) as well as the 1st and 2nd Kentucky, already organizing in Ohio, the Union Club in Louisville (6,000 strong), and a variety of Kentucky units being organized in Indiana, as well. By September 1, Nelson had ~4,000 Kentuckians and half as many Tennesseans at Camp Robinson, and other loyal units were organizing elsewhere in the state.

Polk occupied Columbus, in large part, because he was concerned the Kentucky loyalists would bar his forces anyway, and if Polk hadn't jumped the gun Sept. 3, presumably Zollicoffer would have at Cumberland Ford. The Legislature had already voted to require Polk's forces leave Kentucky, which Magoffin vetoed and which was promptly passed over his veto.

By the end of the year, there were 34 regiments of USV infantry and cavalry already organized in Kentucky; over the course of the war, almost 76,000 Kentuckians enlisted in the USVs/USCTs, almost 52,000 of them "white"... and that doesn't count Kentuckians in the regulars or who enlisted in other USV units.

Bottom line, by 1861, none of the border states were going to secede; the number of enlistments alone show where sentiment lay:

Delaware: 12,000+
Maryland: 46,000+
(West) Virginia: 32,000+
Kentucky: 75,000+
Missouri: 109,000+
Total: 274,000

"Rebel" state enlistments in the USVs (i.e. white):
Alabama: ~2,600
Arkansas: ~8,300
Florida: ~1,300
Louisiana: ~5,200
Mississippi: 545
North Carolina: ~3,200
Tennessee: 31,000+
Texas: ~2,000
Total: 54,000

USCTs numbered ~180,000, of which more than half (~99,000) enlisted in southern states.

All figures are from Dyer and the OR, but rounded.

Now, if you go back to 1856, you can cook up almost anything, but you still have to deal with the reality that Buchanan is president, and Lincoln was a genius.;)

Best,
 
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