I have always wondered what differences would occur if Kentucky would join the Confederacy at some point. Personally I think it would be less than most people think (this thinking is probably due to Lincolns saying at the outbreak of the CW for fear of DC being cutoff from the North). However, probably more soldiers would fight for the Confederates than the Federals (70:30 would be the reverse of OTL). But East KY might stay with the Union like West VA, which will be interesting later on.
An interesting fact is that KY had almost 20% slaves (of total population), in the hand of 23% of families, this is comparable to Arkansas and Tennessee, but one the lower end of the scale (not counting Delaware, only MO and Maryland have lower figures, both states which did not seceed as well).
So when could a POD occur?
I can think of at least 2 occasions.
The
first is before the outbreak of the Civil War. This contains 2 sub options: A)
According to Wikipedia: "Kentucky governor
Beriah Magoffin believed that the rights of the Southern states had been violated and favored the right of secession..." but he did not act on it early on because : "Magoffin called a special session of the
Kentucky General Assembly on December 27, 1860, and asked legislators for a convention of Kentuckians to decide the Commonwealth's course regarding secession. The majority of the General Assembly had Unionist sympathies, however, and declined the governor's request, fearing that the state's voters would favor secession."!!!!!
So of a secession convention would be held that early, it could go in favor for it, triggering KY joining the Confederates. However, this quite early, before TN or VA had their conventions, leaving KY isolated.
B)
Furthermore, when the war broke out, Magoffin, a Southern sympathizer, refused Lincolns request to send part of the initial 75,000 troops to put down the rebellion in the South. Maybe public outrage over the request could trigger a secession convention
after the Civil war broke out, putting KY in to the rebel camp.
The
second option would be during the war.
Kentucky deciced to stay neutral but the Confederates violated the neutrality in September 1861, thus ultimately pushing KY into the Union camp. Interestingly, Governor Magoffin denounced both sides for violating the Commonwealth's neutrality, calling for
both sides to withdraw, but he was overruled.
So if the Union gets impatient (think of Lincolns saying we must have KY at the outbreak of the war) and invades KY first, this could lead to an inverse outcome, where KY is pushed into the rebel camp instead of the Union side.
So maybe more knowledgeable persons than me can think of more details how this can be achieved.