AHC: Ken Clark, Conservative Party Leader

Both candidates will tack to the right in the final round, but I suspect Portillo will be less convincing in his attempts- or more likely, nobody will believe him. The bitter hostility many felt for him was quite astonishing; it will be enough to ensure Clarke is elected by a highly reluctant Conservative party…

Then, the aftermath, Clarke presumably opposes Iraq which changes things quite dramatically and possibly throws the Conservatives a major lifeline during the 2001-5 parliament.
 
Clarke would support Iraq or he would face major problems with his backbenches. IDS spoke for the party when he tried to be more pro-war than Blair.
 
I entirely agree, and actually it's relatively easy to do arrange as well.

Very easy, and there's lots of ways that spring to mind in addition to your proposed one: for example, mildly tweak the result of the general election in some select seats. A few hundred votes from the Tories to Labour in Holderness, thus unseating James Cran, and a few hundred votes from the Tories to Labour in Castle Point, thus keeping Bob Spink out, and that should be enough to take Portillo through to the members vote.
 
Yep, since 1997 the Tories just seem to have been hung up on the idea that they needed to do exactly what Labour did after 1983, that meant their own version of the Kinnock-Hattersley "Dream Ticket" and then leading to their Blair. But what works for one Party at a particular time isn't applicable for another at a different time.

The Leader the Tories needed in 1997 was Michael Howard but Widdecombe's "Something of the Night" comment and THAT Newsnight interview sank him. He wouldn't have made the same strategic blunders that Hague did and would have made a gain of about 30-50 seats in 2001. All this time Hague would have been the heir apparent and after a similar performance in 2005 would have succeeded when Howard stepped down and may well could have been PM today.
I think you'd have to ensure that Hague didn't pull out of the deal he made with Howard to become his deputy. With Hague in the contest MPs on the centre-right of the party have an alternative candidate and one without Howard's baggage. Just keeping Widdecombe quiet and therefore butterflying away the Newsnight interview isn't enough in my view as a lot of MPs may still reach the conclusion that they would be better off with someone who has more or less the same position on the Tory spectrum (although maybe slightly more to the centre) who doesn't have Howard's negative public image.
 
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