AHC: Keep Yugoslavia alive to the present

The challenge for you all today folks is to keep the entity known as Yugoslavia a whole country without the separatist violence it had OTL. The goal here should be:

  • Have Yugoslavia survive as a sovereign nation with its Cold War borders intact.
  • Keep it as stable as possible without awful methods like ethnic cleansing.
And that's about it I suppose. Good luck!
 
Tito was pretty old as it was, IIRC, but if he lives a few years longer, to the end of the Cold War, could there be a return to the monarchy?

Alternatively, a different person coming to power after Tito would also allow for a change; perhaps someone who sees strife comign earlier allows Reagan and Gorbachev to hammer out a treaty that includes both of them putting Alexander II on the throne - and with that, a leader who will be able to be the one main ruler who can try to build a nation post-Communism into a Constitutional monarchy.

The biggest question is what does he have to do to get the peoples' support behind his monarchy?
 
Not sure how putting the monarchy back on the throne is going to calm ethnic tensions, especially given that the Yugoslav monarchy were the Serbian monarchy, and most of the non-Serbian nationalists would be able to add republicanism to their ideological arsenal.
 
I don't think a restoration of the monarchy would be a solution. Even when it existed, the monarchy always had problems with non-Serbs.

The real issue was the regional economic disparity between regions in Yugoslavia, and the wrenching economic pain in 1989-1991 which overcame residual pan-Yugoslav loyalties. You need to address the economy. If it did not get as bad as it did in 1990, then it is possible for Yugoslavia to get past this critical period. If it holds together to 1994 or so, then the pressures leading to ethnic separatism would decline and the country could stay together in some format. I think the premiership of Yugoslav Prime Minister Ante Markovic is important. He was the one who had to navigate Yugoslav from a socialist to market economy.

In retrospect, the West probably insisted on too severe austerity measures in exchange for cooperation. Yugoslavia just could not handle the stress of that with their internal divisions. Another, probably more serious, problem was that somehow Serbian President Slobodon Milosevic somehow forced Serbia's main bank to distribute $1.8 billion to increase Serbian government wages and pensions in order to win re-election to the Presidency of the Serbian Socialist Republic. By doing so, he revived the high inflation that Markovic's policies had successfully defeated with his austerity measures. With the return of inflation, Markovic now had nothing to show for it. In fact, Milosevic had pretty much did everything he could to undermine Markovic's reform policies.

This is not to say that if you got rid of Milosevic, things would have gone smoothly. His opponent in the December 1990 elections was even more nationalist, and the Slovenians and Croatians (Markovic was a Croatian too) were moving towards declaring independence. So another critical piece would mean some kind of new constitutional arrangement that could be agreeable (albeit barely) between the Slovenians and Croatians and the Serbs. This would have to be done in 1989 or early 1990. If this could be done, then the steps taken in spring 1991 to split from Yugoslavia might not happen. And as the economy improved, gradually the tensions would be lessened.

These are not insurmountable problems, but they do require a superb caliber leadership and fantastic timing for it to happen at the right times. It's far easier to say "Stop Milosevic from raiding the national Serbian bank" and "achieve constitutional reform in early 1990" than it is to actually do those things.
 
When the 2. Yugoslavia was being formed is the only time it could be made to last longer. Do not have the capital be Belgrade. It has to be in one of the smaller republics. I'd think Macedonia is a good choice, or even Bosnia&Herzegovina. Also, do not force linguistic experiments on people. Maybe making the learning of other languages of Yugoslavia preferred as secondary/tertiary school language subject is possible. Let even Communist Party members be religious if they want. Religion can work with socialism rather well, if one tries. Also, no taking loans from the west would improve stability.
 
When the 2. Yugoslavia was being formed is the only time it could be made to last longer. Do not have the capital be Belgrade. It has to be in one of the smaller republics. I'd think Macedonia is a good choice, or even Bosnia&Herzegovina. Also, do not force linguistic experiments on people. Maybe making the learning of other languages of Yugoslavia preferred as secondary/tertiary school language subject is possible. Let even Communist Party members be religious if they want. Religion can work with socialism rather well, if one tries. Also, no taking loans from the west would improve stability.

Well, The three central republics of Croatia, Bosnia and Serbia all speak the same language anyway, and they still tore each other apart (in fact the hardest hit of Yugoslavia), not to mention the vast religious divide across the entire country (Catholics to the west, Eastern Orthodox to the east and Sunni Islam in Bosnia and along the Albanian border). It's hard to mend all that without the Serbs willing to relinquish all attempts to control the country as a whole.
 
Well, The three central republics of Croatia, Bosnia and Serbia all speak the same language anyway, and they still tore each other apart (in fact the hardest hit of Yugoslavia), not to mention the vast religious divide across the entire country (Catholics to the west, Eastern Orthodox to the east and Sunni Islam in Bosnia and along the Albanian border). It's hard to mend all that without the Serbs willing to relinquish all attempts to control the country as a whole.
The thing is, Croats do not think the language is completely identical to Serbian. Bosnian even less- there's a bunch of Arabic/Tukish loanwords. There's words that will clearly belong to either one or the other country's vocabulary. The Novi Sad agreement paved the way for an attempt at fusing it all. Wasn't well received at all, but the secret police kept the lid on unrest somewhat. Without this sort of pressure on matters of ethnic diversity, or Serbian domination in general, Yugoslavia could've survived. The socialism applied to economics is what a lot of people liked about the ex-Yu. Ethnic repression was the problem.

My honest opinion: Tito did not learn anything from the path of the first Yugoslavia. Again 6 peoples crammed in 1 state, again there was centralization, again one nationality dominated.
 
What about a Brasilia-esque new capital being built?
Not a bad idea, but definitely should be somewhere not Croatia or Serbia. Another thing I just thought: Tito was too charismatic. After his death- it seemed everything would never recover again. A sequence of bland secretaries worked in GDR, communist Bulgaria or Poland. Yugoslavia needs continuity of governance even after Tito, people who would keep the system ticking. If it depends on one man, it cannot survive past him.
 
Not sure how putting the monarchy back on the throne is going to calm ethnic tensions, especially given that the Yugoslav monarchy were the Serbian monarchy, and most of the non-Serbian nationalists would be able to add republicanism to their ideological arsenal.

Ironically, in this constitutional monarchy ATL, the ethnicity of the potential king might spark the same ethno-national conflict we saw in OTL.

He couldn't be a Serb because the Croats wouldn't stand for it
He couldn't be a Croat because vice versa
He couldn't be Albanian... etc
 
Ironically, in this constitutional monarchy ATL, the ethnicity of the potential king might spark the same ethno-national conflict we saw in OTL.

He couldn't be a Serb because the Croats wouldn't stand for it
He couldn't be a Croat because vice versa
He couldn't be Albanian... etc
Macedonian he could be though, and nobody in Serbia or Croatia could muster up enough fury to rebel against him. Macedonians simply aren't the bad guys, and if a conciliatory factor is needed in Yugoslavia, they can be it. Croats on a national level are not power-hungry, and they'd accept a non-domestic ruler, provided he isn't actively furthering a campaign of erasing them from existence/returning them to ˝Serbian roots˝.
 
A new capital wouldn't help much since communist Yugoslavia spent most of its days in a state pretty much the exact opposite of a "Serbian hegemony". The main problem was how to reconcile the necessary level of federalism with the rights and desires of minorities inside those federal units.

Nor would the restoration of a monarch help - back in its day, the Karadjordjevic monarchy was liked by Serbs, tolerated by Slovenes, and (largely) unpopular with other nations. Alexander II seems like an alright guy, but he'd need to be far, far more than merely "alright". Nor is there any other dynasty which could take a stab at ruling Yugoslavia. Maybe the Petrovic-Njegos of Montenegro? But they would face many of the same problems as the Karadjordjevic, with an added dose of "just who is this guy anyway??".
 
Tito ruled as an authocrat and didn't prepared the yougoslavian communist party to its depart, creating a power vacuum where pro-serbs emmerged and stopped to see yougoslavia as a union but as a serbian kingdom (like their mismanagment of the kosovan miner strike, which was the result of Milocevic removing kosovan right to insure the serb domination on a region that nationalist wanted to keep "serbian"). Maybe if Tito prepared a successor with the same vision of yougoslavia, and with new and good economical ideas*, the transition would be smoother and prevent the break up.

*maybe keeping some state control on the economy to allow under-developped regions to grow and reduce unemployment
 
A new capital wouldn't help much since communist Yugoslavia spent most of its days in a state pretty much the exact opposite of a "Serbian hegemony".

Nevertheless, Skopje as the Yugoslaviavia captital would be a funny sight. Until the 1963 earthquake hits of course.
 
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