AHC: Keep the Ottomans out of Europe

The fact that the Byzantines could no longer rely on the Aegean as a virtual barrier on Turkish expansion into Europe was obviously a big blow for them. With a POD no earlier than 1261, ensure that the Ottoman Empire is never able to expand into Europe.

I'm not just interested in the chances for Byzantine survival (already much in doubt due to the resurgence of Bulgaria and the rise of Venice and Genoa in Greek regions), but also of what other powers might be able to fill the vacuum.

In OTL, an earthquake in 1354 drove most of the Greeks from the Gallipoli area, followed by a quick Ottoman seizure and consolidation of the enclave was what allowed the Ottomans to penetrate into Europe. The Byzantines, had they not been tied up in a civil war, might have been able to crush this settlement. Later attempts at doing so, even with outside help, were unsuccessful. This might be the best point in time.

Or, rather, is it possible that the Ottomans could have lost a later war so badly that they were driven from the continent? Perhaps in the Serbian-Ottoman War of the late 1380s? What about internal problems in Anatolia becoming bad enough that the Ottoman project in Europe gets destroyed in the process? Any thoughts?
 
Emperor Andronikos III estabilishing a clearer succession by not dying so early is a fairly known PoD.
Another one, albeit harder, is the Varna Crusade being a success, driving out the ottomans from the Balkans.
 

Kaze

Banned
Or a far more successful Dracul family

In OTL - Vlad II (Vlad the Dragon) attempted to start a crusade with the aid of John Hunydai. He was stabbed in the back and his son Vlad III (Vlad Dracula) became prisoner of the Turk.

In new timeline - Vlad II defeats the Turks and his son Vlad III continues the battle.
 
The fact that the Byzantines could no longer rely on the Aegean as a virtual barrier on Turkish expansion into Europe was obviously a big blow for them. With a POD no earlier than 1261, ensure that the Ottoman Empire is never able to expand into Europe.

I'm not just interested in the chances for Byzantine survival (already much in doubt due to the resurgence of Bulgaria and the rise of Venice and Genoa in Greek regions), but also of what other powers might be able to fill the vacuum.

What about the Serbians? ;)

Yeah, this one is tricky. A few things working in the Europeans' favor are:

A: At the start of the 14th century the Ottomans are a very new arrival on the Anatolian political scene. They don't hold much land beyond northwesternmost corner of Anatolia, and are surrounded by fiercely competitive rivals. I could imagine the Osmanids being sideswiped by a rival Beylik, but who's stopping said Beylik from simply filling the gap left by the OTL Ottoman Empire?

B: I'm not quite sure when the Ottomans first obtained gunpowder in any great quantity, but it was probably well after 1302. Artillery was the most intimidating element of the Ottoman army, and without it they are just another tribe of semi-nomadic desert dwellers.

C: The Serbian Empire

Though my loyalty is with the Roman Empire, I could tolerate Serbian dominance over the Balkans for the sake of keeping the Ottomans out. The problem is, Dušan and his army would have a very hard time figuring out how to crack the nut of Constantinople, and how would the Ecumenical Patriarch consent?
 
The fact that the Byzantines could no longer rely on the Aegean as a virtual barrier on Turkish expansion into Europe was obviously a big blow for them. With a POD no earlier than 1261, ensure that the Ottoman Empire is never able to expand into Europe.

I'm not just interested in the chances for Byzantine survival (already much in doubt due to the resurgence of Bulgaria and the rise of Venice and Genoa in Greek regions), but also of what other powers might be able to fill the vacuum.

In OTL, an earthquake in 1354 drove most of the Greeks from the Gallipoli area, followed by a quick Ottoman seizure and consolidation of the enclave was what allowed the Ottomans to penetrate into Europe. The Byzantines, had they not been tied up in a civil war, might have been able to crush this settlement. Later attempts at doing so, even with outside help, were unsuccessful. This might be the best point in time.

Or, rather, is it possible that the Ottomans could have lost a later war so badly that they were driven from the continent? Perhaps in the Serbian-Ottoman War of the late 1380s? What about internal problems in Anatolia becoming bad enough that the Ottoman project in Europe gets destroyed in the process? Any thoughts?
I recalled that the Savoyard crusade briefly retook Gallipoli in 1366,but the city was handed back to the Turks because Andronikos IV handed the city back to the Turks as payment for Turkish support against his father.
 
B: I'm not quite sure when the Ottomans first obtained gunpowder in any great quantity, but it was probably well after 1302. Artillery was the most intimidating element of the Ottoman army, and without it they are just another tribe of semi-nomadic desert dwellers.
Calling the early Ottomans "desert dwellers" strikes me as very ignorant, not to mention that the Ottomans were only producing firearms in the 1380s, by which they had already proven victorious in the Field of Blackbirds and become the dominant power in the Balkans south of Hungary.
 
What about the Serbian Empire? Given the Byzantine incompetence of OTL that characterized much of their existence, I think the only way to stop the Turks is to get someone else in power.
 
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