AHC: Keep Russia occupied from 1600s to 1800s

From the end of the Rurikid Dynasty in 1598 to the start of ATL European nationalism*, can Russia be occupied by either Poland-Lithuania, Sweden, or another foreign power? This would basically mean a longer Time of Troubles in which the Romanovs never become tsars.

*At least 150-200 years of foreign control total.
 
From the end of the Rurikid Dynasty in 1598 to the start of ATL European nationalism*, can Russia be occupied by either Poland-Lithuania, Sweden, or another foreign power? This would basically mean a longer Time of Troubles in which the Romanovs never become tsars.
*At least 150-200 years of foreign control total.

No.
Standing armies are expensive, and most kings could just afford one for their own country, and many could not even that. Financing not a military expedition/raid, but a permanent occupation in a hostile country over centuries needs annual subsidies by the First Bank of Alienspacebattia.

Even a permanent alliance with Russia as puppet/vassal would be hard unless the Western power is really powerful and some unlikely resurgance of a steppe khanate makes Russia desperate for help.

A Swedish or Polish prince on the Muskovite throne is rather easy, but if his dynasty has to last, this will mean just a third, Orthodox rival branch of the House of Vasa.
 
Such a state would be functionally indistinguishable from a Russian state with a foreign-born ruler and probably some other territories. In other words, as Westphalian said, if he wishes to hold Russia, he must needs Russify.
 

katchen

Banned
No.
Standing armies are expensive, and most kings could just afford one for their own country, and many could not even that. Financing not a military expedition/raid, but a permanent occupation in a hostile country over centuries needs annual subsidies by the First Bank of Alienspacebattia.

Even a permanent alliance with Russia as puppet/vassal would be hard unless the Western power is really powerful and some unlikely resurgance of a steppe khanate makes Russia desperate for help.

A Swedish or Polish prince on the Muskovite throne is rather easy, but if his dynasty has to last, this will mean just a third, Orthodox rival branch of the House of Vasa.

About that unlikely resurgence of a steppe khanate.....:
You can read about it in Wikipedia Dzungars:, Basically, the last of the steppe empires was created in the 1600s in Western Central Asia centered in what is now called the Dzungar Basin in the upper Irtysh River. The empire at it's height included Tibet and the Khan (who was Oirat) was crowned Galdan Khan by the Dalai Lama. But for the fact that the Galdan Khan fought against the Manchu Kang Hsi Emperor and later, that emperor's grandson, the Chien Lung Emperor mounted a successful campaign that basically annihilated the Dzungar, the Dzungar might well have endangered Russia. All that had to happen was for them to turn north and take Siberia and then west in the 1630s to 1650s when MIkhail Romanov was consolidating his throne and Russia (which was far less powerful than the Manchus even at that time) would have been hard put to stop them and would have had to call upon the hated Swedes or Poles for assistance--which might not have been enough. A mid 17th Century Dzungar war with Russia would be a very interesting TL indeed, and if it successfully resulted in a Dzungar Yoke, this would bring Vajrayana Buddhism to Europe and either protect the Dzungars from the Manchus 100 years later or bring the Manchus down on Russia too.
 
No.
Standing armies are expensive, and most kings could just afford one for their own country, and many could not even that. Financing not a military expedition/raid, but a permanent occupation in a hostile country over centuries needs annual subsidies by the First Bank of Alienspacebattia.

Even a permanent alliance with Russia as puppet/vassal would be hard unless the Western power is really powerful and some unlikely resurgance of a steppe khanate makes Russia desperate for help.

A Swedish or Polish prince on the Muskovite throne is rather easy, but if his dynasty has to last, this will mean just a third, Orthodox rival branch of the House of Vasa.

Such a state would be functionally indistinguishable from a Russian state with a foreign-born ruler and probably some other territories. In other words, as Westphalian said, if he wishes to hold Russia, he must needs Russify.

Ah, I see. In my head, I think I was actually just thinking of the Muscovite throne before I posted this. What parts of modern Russia would then remain unoccupied, and could a Rurikid relative come to power instead of a Romanov? And by the way, Westphalian, I now hope to use the First Bank of Alienspacebattia in a TL. Thanks! :D

Re: katchen. Very interesting comments! Could the Dzungars settle in Siberia, and if so, how long?

Will post longer responses tomorrow. Thank you for your critiques!
 
It's a bit earlier but Victory for the Crimeans at the Battle of Molodi might greatly reduce the size of Russia. If the Crimeans maintain themselves as a large power Sweden might have an easier Tim swallowing the remainder of Muscovy.
 
A bit outside your timeframe, but if you kill Ivan IV Grozny in his early teens, you will probably get an earlier Time of Troubles - his brother Yuri was deaf mute and wouldn't be more than a puppet.
If the Khanates of Kazan, Astrakhan and Sibir aren't conquered by Moscow, you can play with their alliance with an Ottoman-supported Crimean Giraid dynasty. They just have to win this TL's alt-Battle of Molodi against a weakened or disorganized Russia. Yeah, I see, more or less what Tobit said.
 

Razgriz 2K9

Banned
Except what happens next? Just because there would be a victory over the Russians in alt-Molodi, doesn't necessarily mean the Vasas will be Kings of Sweden/Poland-Lithuania.

In all honesty, would it be possible to restore the divided Novgorod/Muscovy under Swedish & Polish-Lithuanian influence respectively?
 
Except what happens next? Just because there would be a victory over the Russians in alt-Molodi, doesn't necessarily mean the Vasas will be Kings of Sweden/Poland-Lithuania.

In all honesty, would it be possible to restore the divided Novgorod/Muscovy under Swedish & Polish-Lithuanian influence respectively?

While a P+L House of Vasa is certainly very dependent on the circumstances, you will have to go back in time to avoid a Swedish one - and without that, you might not even have an independent Sweden.

Actually, a PoD round 1500 might serve you best: An Ottoman Empire that does not expand either into Egypt+Syria or into Hungary, might expand across the Black Sea into old Golden Horde territory - less as conqueror and more as protector. That will put Russia under much pressure. Additionally, you will still have an independent Principality of Ryazan, potentially allied with the Crimeans and Ottomans.

europe1500-1.jpg
 
A bit outside your timeframe, but if you kill Ivan IV Grozny in his early teens, you will probably get an earlier Time of Troubles - his brother Yuri was deaf mute and wouldn't be more than a puppet.
If the Khanates of Kazan, Astrakhan and Sibir aren't conquered by Moscow, you can play with their alliance with an Ottoman-supported Crimean Giraid dynasty. They just have to win this TL's alt-Battle of Molodi against a weakened or disorganized Russia. Yeah, I see, more or less what Tobit said.

I think it would be interesting if in this situation the Giraids create a Jannissary system for Russia. I don't think they could occupy the whole of Russia, since Islam probably wouldn't be accepted by the Orthodox.
 
I think it would be interesting if in this situation the Giraids create a Jannissary system for Russia. I don't think they could occupy the whole of Russia, since Islam probably wouldn't be accepted by the Orthodox.

Yes, I don't think they can significantly hold on to Russian territory (beyond the Khanate of Qasim which was fairly russified by 1550 AFAIK). But, for ex, destroying Moscow (like OTL 1571), this TL for good, and putting another Rurikid Boyar on the throne in another place might create a fairly strong tributary system. Something like the devshirme might develop, interesting idea.
Since the Giray were Genghizids, via Tokhtamysh and Orda, they might develop an interst in their ancestors' lands via expansion through Siberia. Islamicized cossacks reaching Lake Baikal and the Pacific ... :D
 
[...] would it be possible to restore the divided Novgorod/Muscovy under Swedish & Polish-Lithuanian influence respectively?

I think that this happens in Antoine's TL, "In this country, it is good to kill an admiral from time to time." I could be mistaken, though, and I wonder how long their joint control over the Russias will last.

[...] Actually, a PoD round 1500 might serve you best: An Ottoman Empire that does not expand either into Egypt+Syria or into Hungary, might expand across the Black Sea into old Golden Horde territory - less as conqueror and more as protector. That will put Russia under much pressure. Additionally, you will still have an independent Principality of Ryazan, potentially allied with the Crimeans and Ottomans.

europe1500-1.jpg

That's actually a pretty neat idea--it would be fascinating to see how Ottoman-era culture and tech change as a result of holding onto the Crimea.

Yes, I don't think they can significantly hold on to Russian territory (beyond the Khanate of Qasim which was fairly russified by 1550 AFAIK). But, for ex, destroying Moscow (like OTL 1571), this TL for good, and putting another Rurikid Boyar on the throne in another place might create a fairly strong tributary system. Something like the devshirme might develop, interesting idea.
Since the Giray were Genghizids, via Tokhtamysh and Orda, they might develop an interst in their ancestors' lands via expansion through Siberia. Islamicized cossacks reaching Lake Baikal and the Pacific ... :D

Ah, this is ultimately the kind of long-term change I'm looking for! If I were to make this into a TL, I'd like to show that Russia's control over Siberia was hardly inevitable--and a CRIMEAN Siberia :eek: sounds like one of the most unique options.
 
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