AHC: Keep Italy divided

POD is, as always, anytime after 1788.
Perhaps a different Napoleonic Wars can keep Italy more divided between several states? or would that trend of reunification be unstoppable?
 
Italian unification was all but unstopable : Italy was conquered and unified by the kingdom of Piedmont.

Have a geopolitical situation where there is a european superpower that dominates this part of Europe and there will be no unification.
 
Italian unification was all but unstopable : Italy was conquered and unified by the kingdom of Piedmont.

Have a geopolitical situation where there is a european superpower that dominates this part of Europe and there will be no unification.

I wouldn't say all but unstoppable. It France hadn't supported Sardina-Piedmont unification would never have happened. No way Sardinia-Piedmont could beat Austria on its own.
 
OTL unification process can certainly be derailed.
OTOH there certainly was a chance for it to succeed during the Spring of Nations.

My take is that in the long run the unification is going to happen, maybe going through different and more distinct stages rather than OTL 1859-60 blitz. Put in a different way, I do believe that Italian unification would fail if German unification fails (or if an alliance between Habsburgs and 2nd Empire manages - against all odds - to keep a lock on both Germanies and Italies. This scenario is probably close to ASB as it comes, and would require also Russia to sign in, yadda yadda yadda).

As a matter of fact, I do find very surprising that the arrangement agreed at the Congressof Vienna managed to last for almost 50 years
 
I think it's certainly possible. Extremely difficult though. I think what you need to do is prevent a unified Italy from coming about long enough so that with each successive generation, interest in it slowly wanes till the drive for it dies off. Maybe say, have the French never give any support towards Sardinia so that all attempts fail. Also maybe even weaken it enough so that it doesn't even posses what strength it did to even stand a chance even with French backing.

Though this I believe is not enough. What I think you'll also need to do is increase the various differences between the various Italian states until they feel say, Tuscan or Venetian or Neapolitan or Sardinian first and Italian second.

Eventually all these circumstances combined over time could result in a situation similar to modern day Germany and Austria in that despite Austria being German ethically and linguistically, they and Germany both feel as if they're separate and distinct entities.

Like I said it's doable I feel, though certainly hard to pull off.
 
If Piedmont had had a free hand in the process there would at least have been 2 separate countries in the Italian peninsula. Piedmont did not want to touch Naples with a bargepole. It's hand was forced by Garibaldi. Get rid of Garibaldi somehow then voila! In this case its likely that the Papal States would survive in some form as well. How well this Northern Kingdom of Italy would fare getting Venice is another matter.
 
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If Piedmont had had a free hand in the process there would at least have been 2 separate countries in the Italian peninsula. Piedmont did not want to touch Naples with a bargepole. It's hand was forced by Garibaldi. Get rid of Garibaldi somehow then voila! In this case its likely that the Papal States would survive in some form as well. How well this Northern Kingdom of Italy would fare getting Venice is another matter.

It's no like Garibaldi and Piedmontese government were completely unaware of each other's plans. Naples was not a priority for Cavour, but he didn't disdain that either.
 
It's no like Garibaldi and Piedmontese government were completely unaware of each other's plans. Naples was not a priority for Cavour, but he didn't disdain that either.

Correct, plus there is the fact that the Kingdom of two Sicilies was on the way of the dodo due to the rampant mismanagement and the fact that nobody in the leaderships understand that the time were changed...basically image the late Tsar but on the italian penisula.

In case of North Italy partecipate in the Austro-Prussian war, well ironically they will fare better than the OTL Kingdom of Italy; much of the abysmall (initial) performance of it was due to the problems of unitining so much different people in a coesive army aka absorb the army of the deposed Bourbon plus the suppression of an prolonged rebellion in the South.

Regarding Rome, well it is and always will be the principal objective of the Risorgimento, so the moment that's possible North Italy will capture it.
 
Italian unification was all but unstopable : Italy was conquered and unified by the kingdom of Piedmont.

Have a geopolitical situation where there is a european superpower that dominates this part of Europe and there will be no unification.

What? Italian Unification was a distant fantasy when it happened and it mostly happened due to godly luck.

- Cavour gets Napoleon III on his side
- Napoleon III's armies magically endure no logistical challenges whatsoever in an environment they've never been in, in stark contrast to their performance in Crimea.
- Garibaldi manages to outfox Sicily and somehow unifies the South.
- Bismarck and Napoleon III get into a brawl and Napoleon III is forced to withdraw his protection of the pope.

If any one of these didn't happen, Italian unification would be gone. Sardinia couldn't beat Austria by itself. Austria could have held France back long enough to tell Napoleon III he was being stupid and undermining his own interest, destroying the French morale (the idea that when France won in war, the leader became more popular and distracted people from the real problems) which was their only motive for overextending themselves in so many wars. If Two Sicilies was standing and could manage a recovery, Italy would be divided in two. If Napoleon was still protecting the Pope... well, we would still be seeing a Papal States into the 20th century.
 
- Cavour gets Napoleon III on his side

Nappy III was always be a proponent of italian unification, well his brand of italian unification, basically he wanted Italy divided in three (North under a 'friendly' govement, Center under the Pope and South under the Bourbon). Cavou skillifully played with his ambition.

- Napoleon III's armies magically endure no logistical challenges whatsoever in an environment they've never been in, in stark contrast to their performance in Crimea.

Well, the plain of North Italy are a different enviroment than malaria infested Crimea, even because they are a lot lot more easily to supply.

- Garibaldi manages to outfox Sicily and somehow unifies the South.

By the time of the Garibaldi invasion, the Kingdom of two sicilies was on a deep deep crisis, basically on the verge of become a failed state.

- Bismarck and Napoleon III get into a brawl and Napoleon III is forced to withdraw his protection of the pope.

Still the Pope will not have survived long even with Nappy III support, too legitimacy lost, too stuck in the past and with an internal and economic situation quickly deteriorating; and frankly Nappy was thorn, he needed catholic support but he know that keep supporting the Papal states was the only thing who blocked a serious alliance with Italy.
 
Get a competent, liberal, popular reformer on the Neapolitan throne. Kill Garibaldi. Get a relatively liberal Pope elected. Keep Austria-Hungary stronger, and have them give their North Italian realms autonomy on par with the Hungarians after 1867 - maybe you can get a true federalisation of the Habsburg empire into Austrian, Hungarian, Croat, Czech, Italian etc. realms, which would be even better. Get Piedmont on bad terms with Napoleon III.

You can pretty easily keep Naples, the Papal States, and Lombardy/Venetia (maybe still part of the hopefully-federal Habsburg empire, maybe an independent Kingdom of Milan or somesuch) independent. The other North Italian states are more difficult, but doable.
 
Hmm...

Have a communist revolution of the northern part of Italy sometime during the Great Depression. (Of course this would lead to other rebellions in Europe). Italy can be divided between north and south between the socialist and the capitalist.
 

Razgriz 2K9

Banned
What? Italian Unification was a distant fantasy when it happened and it mostly happened due to godly luck.

- Cavour gets Napoleon III on his side
- Napoleon III's armies magically endure no logistical challenges whatsoever in an environment they've never been in, in stark contrast to their performance in Crimea.
- Garibaldi manages to outfox Sicily and somehow unifies the South.
- Bismarck and Napoleon III get into a brawl and Napoleon III is forced to withdraw his protection of the pope.

-I wouldn't say the former was godly luck. While Napoleon was somewhat supportive of Sardinia's plan, it was mainly so it would replace Austria as the main influencer in Italy. Probably also helped in that Napoleon did not know what the heck he was doing when he became Emperor. (To the point that others label him an idiot.)

-Plus, their armires did not endure much logistical challenges because after all, a French Invasion through Northern Italy has been attempted before the Second Italian War, namely his uncle's successful invasion.

That being said, I sincerely do not believe that a united Italian peninsula is inevitable. Simply put, All you need to do is kill off Garibaldi. Although the Northern Italian states (and all Papal lands beyond Lazio and probably the Marche) are doomed to being dominated by the Sardinians, Killing Garibaldi would actually prolong Sicilian independence for a fair while.
 
it was carried on prussian and french shoulders.

there's no way sardinia could beat austria/a-h on its own. hell, whole italy couldnt do it while a-h was fighting a 4 front war.
 
Get a competent, liberal, popular reformer on the Neapolitan throne. Kill Garibaldi. Get a relatively liberal Pope elected. Keep Austria-Hungary stronger, and have them give their North Italian realms autonomy on par with the Hungarians after 1867 - maybe you can get a true federalisation of the Habsburg empire into Austrian, Hungarian, Croat, Czech, Italian etc. realms, which would be even better. Get Piedmont on bad terms with Napoleon III.

You can pretty easily keep Naples, the Papal States, and Lombardy/Venetia (maybe still part of the hopefully-federal Habsburg empire, maybe an independent Kingdom of Milan or somesuch) independent. The other North Italian states are more difficult, but doable.
They had elected a relatively liberal pope. Pius IX came to the throne as a raging liberal. Only the whole 1848 fiasco with Garibaldi and the Roman Republic convinced him that liberalism was a misguided philosophy for crazy anarchists and revolutionaries, and caused him to become the ultra-reactionary pope he is known as.

Which is part of the problem; just because a competent ruler is able to suppress or channel nationalism within his borders, doesn't mean his successor (or even an older version of himself) will be able to.

My guess is that the best bet is to prevent the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies from devolving into such a reactionary disaster area, while the North unifies as usual. In that case, one could imagine a Kingdom in the north and a kingdom in the south developing their own nationalisms (with Rome either surviving or being partitioned).

But that requires a string of unusually competent Bourbon monarchs in Naples, to which I can only say..."good luck with that".
 
I think this would be fairly easy. I think the best PoD is the Assassination Attempt of Napoleon III by Felice Orsini.

I would change it so the Emperor and Empress are wounded, but not killed. Historically they got out fine, and Napoleon III responded to an Italian Nationalist trying to kill him by completely supporting the cause of Italian Nationalism. If instead the event is suitably traumatic or damaging, it could cause him to develop a hatred, or at least wariness and dislike, of the idea.

Personally, I like this idea because it could, if you play your cards right, be a springboard for a Friendship between Napoleon III and Franz Joseph. They can bond over having both been the targets of Radical Nationalist Assassination Attempts.

At that point, you need Sardinia-Piedmont to embark on another ill-advised war against Austria. Difficult, as Cavour is pragmatic and understands the country's limitations, but not impossible as they made that mistake in 1848. Actually, here's where Not Killing Garibaldi (yet) could be very useful, as I could see him leading an initially successful rebellion in Lombardia, which draws in Sardinia, but then the rebellion and the Sardinian Armies are crushed by Austria.

Thus Austria has been the target of two wars where Sardinia-Piedmont sought to take territory from them with the backing of Revolutionaries, which is three too many. Now that France is also actively hostile to the cause, I could see S-P being divided up into Sardinia and Piedmont, with the Savoy dynasty effectively 'exiled' to Sardinia.

This further divides the north, ensuring that any southern revolution from mismanagement in Sicily has no support, which can drive a nice wedge between the North and South Italians. If the southern revolution goes badly enough you could see the Kingdom of Two Sicilies fall apart entirely.

Thus you've got everything you need for the Italian culture to start dividing into pieces, plus you've ensured that no one state is powerful enough to unite Italy by Force and the only country that was willing to help is now one of the powers actively keeping the peninsula divided.

Also, with Austria stronger and France friendly to Austria, this might butterfly German Unification as well.
 
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POD is, as always, anytime after 1788.
Perhaps a different Napoleonic Wars can keep Italy more divided between several states? or would that trend of reunification be unstoppable?

Ironically, it was the Napoleonic Wars that helped establish nationalism - and thereby the kingdom of Italy and the German Reich.
 
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