It's difficult to call, remember the UVF were set up to resist the British Governments choice on Home Rule, and the fallout caused the Curragh Mutiny so how willing the UK would be to divert equipment to them? Moreover I think you're relying on hindsight they wouldn't have. In 1914 at the Outbreak, Redmond called upon the Irish volunteers to serve to show support to the Empire and they did. There was no reason to think in 1914/15 that there was going to be an insurrection in Ireland during the war, at which point the question would be why hold back 10's of thousands of troops when they are needed at the front and there was no visible threat in Ireland (which already had large numbers of troops present).
AHC: Keep Ireland in the United Kingdom with a POD after the 1918 GE
- Thread starter Pittite
- Start date
It's difficult to call, remember the UVF were set up to resist the British Governments choice on Home Rule, and the fallout caused the Curragh Mutiny so how willing the UK would be to divert equipment to them? Moreover I think you're relying on hindsight they wouldn't have. In 1914 at the Outbreak, Redmond called upon the Irish volunteers to serve to show support to the Empire and they did. There was no reason to think in 1914/15 that there was going to be an insurrection in Ireland during the war, at which point the question would be why hold back 10's of thousands of troops when they are needed at the front and there was no visible threat in Ireland (which already had large numbers of troops present).
Fair with the hindsight but i just wanted to know how would it affect. While the UVF was set to stop home rule, i think they would be happy to fight the irish nationalists in a civil war and their would be surplus of equipment after ww1 but wasn't the british army pro UVF, i just want to know what the UVF affect would be.
I'd go further and say you need a POD well before 1900. Home Rule would be unlikely to survive long term.
One of the constant refrains from Unionists from the 1880s on was that Home Rule was fundamentally too much of a half way house to survive and whether one agrees with their politics or not it is hard not to say they were right about that particular point. A devolved government in Dublin would come under intense pressure to expand the very weak powers allowed under Gladstone or Asquith's proposals. Remember this is the period when the Dominions were flourishing and an 'Imperial' patriot could point to Canada or Australia as successful examples of greater autonomy.
Pangur
Donor
That would make things even worse as that would add a religious element to the WoI that was not there ITL
and if the British don't allow the Irish Volunteers to stay back but allows the UVF to garrison the south say good bye to most southerns joining the British army
Ak-84
Banned
The British certainly had the ability to trash the Irish into compliance everyday of the week and twice on Sundays.
They did not have the political will.
Martial law and a massive occupation is needed. OTL, the British suffered in the Anglo-Irish war with a paucity of reserves due to the demobilisation, and Imperial commitments (which were deemed more important). India could be a source of troops, but that raises the spectre of non-white troops being used to occupy an integral part of the UK.
Ireland under a very harsh martial law regime is an interesting TL.
They did not have the political will.
Martial law and a massive occupation is needed. OTL, the British suffered in the Anglo-Irish war with a paucity of reserves due to the demobilisation, and Imperial commitments (which were deemed more important). India could be a source of troops, but that raises the spectre of non-white troops being used to occupy an integral part of the UK.
Ireland under a very harsh martial law regime is an interesting TL.
And how long do you think the UK would be willing to sustain that for? You can't butterfly away the fallout of WW1 in terms of the demobilisation, then there's the economic situation in the UK in the 20's (not great) which would only be made worse if you have sustained occupation and resistance in Ireland.
Ak-84
Banned
I agree with you, my point that British constraints were political, not military.
Furthermore, in OTL, the sympathies of the British establishment and intelligencia were with the nationalists.
The POD has to be something which changes these two facts. A major terror campaign in GB is one possible cause.
Furthermore, in OTL, the sympathies of the British establishment and intelligencia were with the nationalists.
The POD has to be something which changes these two facts. A major terror campaign in GB is one possible cause.
Well that's always been the case for modern Anglo-Irish issues (ie the Troubles), I'd agree a major POD would have to happen but I'm not sure at this stage if it could be done. I mean say in the Aud had landed the German Arms then I could see the UK being willing to go down the route you suggested since there would be "proof" of Ireland stabbing the UK in the back.
Isn't there the little issue that such an Ulster would be majority-Catholic and therefore republican?
Not with a POD of 1918. Best you can get out of that is Ireland sticks to Dominion Status, because it realises cutting it's links with the Commonwealth almost immediately postwar, is not a great idea. 1950's Ireland was poor. Maybe someone starts questioning the Rising Earlier? OTL nobody questioned it until 1966, when people began to realise we actually had Home Rule, and could have avoided The deaths and destruction from the Rising, the War of Independence and the Civil war, although another civil war may have been on the cards.
You can have a POD of immediately post rising, have the British handle it better, not execute the leaders and send thousands of completely innocent people to prison. Most of the Irish population was against the Rising until the Leaders were executed, especially the wounded Conolly.
The innocent people who were imprisoned happened to be imprisoned with republicans who supported or were in the Rising, or IRB/IRA. Basically the British gave them an audience full of men who'd been imprisoned by the British for no reason. So when they were released, one can expect they had changed their minds.
If this doesn't happen, and maybe a propaganda campaign is brought in, it is quite possible to keep the public on side. War ends, Home Rule gets enacted, most Irish people will be happy for the time being. It's unlikely that Ireland will stick with Home Rule, maybe 15-20 years before going to Dominion Status, but it will be much smoother than OTL, although I suspect some violence from extreme Republicans and Unionists.
You can have a POD of immediately post rising, have the British handle it better, not execute the leaders and send thousands of completely innocent people to prison. Most of the Irish population was against the Rising until the Leaders were executed, especially the wounded Conolly.
The innocent people who were imprisoned happened to be imprisoned with republicans who supported or were in the Rising, or IRB/IRA. Basically the British gave them an audience full of men who'd been imprisoned by the British for no reason. So when they were released, one can expect they had changed their minds.
If this doesn't happen, and maybe a propaganda campaign is brought in, it is quite possible to keep the public on side. War ends, Home Rule gets enacted, most Irish people will be happy for the time being. It's unlikely that Ireland will stick with Home Rule, maybe 15-20 years before going to Dominion Status, but it will be much smoother than OTL, although I suspect some violence from extreme Republicans and Unionists.
I think the problem is that besides requiring near ASB restraint from the British it underestimates the multiple faultlines already existing under the Anglo-Irish relationship. The Easter Rising was more a symptom than a cause. Remember the Curragh Mutiny, the Larne Gun Running and the the Bachelor's Walk massacre happened before the war (immediately before the war in the later case.)
Even when looking at the purely constitutional side Redmond's authority was dramatically weakened after the formation of the Coalition Government with multiple Unionists (including Carson himself) taking Cabinet seats. After that point - and it is very hard to see how it can be avoided unless the war is prevented altogether - Nationalists could only ever count on a tin ear in Westminster. Naturally this led to the German Plot and the Conscription Crisis which killed off the Nationalists altogether. John Dillon, who probably represented mainstream Irish Nationalist opinion better than John Redmond ever did was prepared to share a platform with Sinn Féin.
Honestly I don't think there was ever any fully peaceful way to defuse the tensions built up between 1910 and 1914. The British Government had to be dragged kicking and screaming to concede what they eventually did and I don't the country would peacefully have accepted what was on 'offer' in 1920 even without the Rising. Even the apparent ultra-moderates like the All-for-Ireland League were as conciliatory as they were in the hopes of winning of the Ulster Unionists and avoiding partition rather than wanting to keep the British link strong.