AHC Keep Finland and Poland in Russia

With lack of ww1 it is bigger challenge to get Polish independence that to keep Poland in Russian Empire. Even if Russia has any troubles with Poles Germany would be more than happy to help Russians put down next uprising.
 
I agree that the russification policies were an essential part of why Finland ended up on a path to independence. A semi-autonomous Finland where Finns can stay Finns would be content to stay part of a Russian empire. Russia just needs to nurture the pride of being part of Russia in addition to being a Finn. We have to remember that Finland had a better deal under Russian rule than they had had under Swedish rule up until around 1900.

If russification and repression policies are kept ITTL and the autonomy is dismantled step by step, then as long as Russia doesn't start falling apart, the most likely outcome is rebelliousness and terrorism in Finland in the 1920s. Perhaps at some point even an uprising, which will almost certainly fail.
 
Respectfully disagree, Nikolai II:s Russia was heading for some kind of collapse. WW I did what wars allways do, it rallied the people around their leaders first and magnified the internal problems then.

Make Nicky disappear and turn Russian into constitutional monarchy and then maybe.

Even if Russia would have internal trouble, even deep trouble due to the Tsar's actions (or, as it may be, inaction), I believe it would not lose Finland and Poland unless it ends up in a war against outside parties or unless the other powers decide to intervene in Russian internal affairs in some significant way. Remember that IOTL the events of 1905 and 1917 were both prompted by a losing war and destabilisation and deep dissatisfaction caused by that chain of events. A "rally around the flag" effect only worked as long as victory seemed likely in the near future. WWI did more to hurt the monarchy than to help it, by boosting disruptive trends and processes inside Russia that otherwise might have been manageable (even if only so-and-so). Without such a catalyst like a losing war, I believe Nicholas II could stay on the throne (and the Tsarist government in control) despite internal trouble, even if his position would become increasingly tenuous. Absent external factors like war and foreign intervention, even if the Tsar is eventually sidelined, I think it would more likely be by a group from inside the traditional elite that decides that things must change, not by a revolutionary mob.
 
There was a certain man who could ruin any chances for Polish independence in 20th century. Twice. And this man was... Józef Piłsudski.
First time he tried to start uprising after Russia's defeat in Russo-Japanese war. He went to Tokio where tried to convince Japanese government to support Polish uprising with weapons and money, at the same time Roman Dmowski went to Japan to convince Japanese to ignore Piłsudski's plans. If Piłsudski succeeded Polish uprising would be crushed by Russians with German help. Russo-German relations would improve again after feeding together on Poland's corpse. So no Russo-French alliance and no ww1 (or, if there is a war anyway crushing victory of Russo-German alliance).
Second time was in 1914 when Piłsudski tried to start anti-Russian uprising in Congress Poland but failed due to lack of support from local Poles, who feared Germans more than Russians. If such uprising succeeded Russia would propably make separate peace with Germany.
It is big irony that Piłsudski is seen as father of independent Poland when in fact Poland regained independence not because of him but despite of him
 
They can keep some autonomy, right? Since they were in personal union, though it was more honest in the case of Finland than with Poland, which was being swallowed up.
 
What is your POD? I was thinking that have a hands off Alex III that hands off the country’s day to day to Witte, who hands over to Stolypin directly who avoids being assassinated and Nicky dies before he comes to power (Japan?) you might be able to save Russia. Get Michael in as backup as the legal monarch.

GG
 
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