AHC: Keep Austria-Hungry Around

I had read that the Austro-Hungarian Empire's economy was actually increasing in the years up to World War 1, and the country was industrializing at a steady pace.

I'm wondering if it's possible to keep Austria-Hungry around until World War 2 (or, in case World War 2 never happens, to around 1941). It can survive long after that if possible, but I want an AHE around at least until then.

Oh, and similar borders. It doesn't need to be wanked-out, but it can't turn to a shriveled husk either.
 
I had read that the Austro-Hungarian Empire's economy was actually increasing in the years up to World War 1, and the country was industrializing at a steady pace.

Correct. IIRC, Austria's economic growth was second to Russia in the period. While certainly lower, Austria did have a significant head start in the department.

I'm wondering if it's possible to keep Austria-Hungry around until World War 2 (or, in case World War 2 never happens, to around 1941). It can survive long after that if possible, but I want an AHE around at least until then.

Oh, and similar borders. It doesn't need to be wanked-out, but it can't turn to a shriveled husk either.

There's two options I can think of:

1. Austria-Hungary doesn't really reform, keeps staggering on through the years, kept intact by German intervention (originally, Germany didn't want too many Catholics in the Empire and the addition of the Austrian half of Austria-Hungary would allow them to establish an extremely powerful block). Eventually, a rational government comes to power in Germany and figures out that being shackled to a corpse is too much trouble, allows Austria-Hungary to finally collapse and annexes Austria, Bohemia and Kustenland.

2. Austria-Hungary does reform (what shape the reform would be depends, there were literally dozens of opinions at the time). Two variants were fairly popular among reformers at the time. Franz Ferdinand advocated a dictatorship from the centre via Imperial Decree (crushing Hungarian independence in the process) ... incidentally, he believed this to be necessary for some years before any increase in autonomy could be undertaken as doing it too early would only rip the Empire apart. The other idea was the opposite, increased decentralization which, unless handled properly, rip the Empire apart (there was, after all, no love lost between many of the nationalities in the Empire).


The first option is, basically, Germany maintaining the status quo until they get tired of it and simply let the whole rotten structure collapse. Status quo, as it was, was untenable without outside interference.

The second option would ensure internal stability (possibly, it depends on a number of factors, economic, social and cultural) ... pretty much without any end date.

This all, naturally, assumes a CP victory in the Great War. If this occurs before the War, it's likely that the internal chaos (caused by the groups that didn't get their way ... primarily Hungarians, possibly Czechs or Sudeten Germans) would trigger the Great War as every surrounding nation would attempt to get in on the game. The basic problem with any attempt to clean house in Austria-Hungary is to keep other nations from interfering (Italy, Romania and Serbia would certainly, Russia might to keep any chaos from spreading to it's own territories) ... basically an impossibility without a Great War or something to sufficiently distract other nations from foreign policy.

If the Central Powers lose the war, well, I won't say that it being ripped apart by the victors (and it's own nationalities) is inevitable ... merely very likely. It's possible, of course, IIRC, there was a proposal from Vienna regarding a separate peace with the Entente which, if accepted, would keep Austria-Hungary in one piece (OTL, it wasn't and was leaked to Germany, which quickly reined it's ally in for a fight to the end). Whether it would survive, however, would depend on the development of the war and the actions of the government. Would they go for reform? Certainly, most of the political groups were aware it was necessary (they just couldn't agree how).

I suppose I could add that there was another plan, turning a double into a triple monarchy. The proposed groups were either Czechs or South Slavs, but the plan faltered a fair bit when the people proposing it (Franz Ferdinand primarily, during his early years) wouldn't help the monarchy at all and would essentially give Vienna a second Hungary to deal with. I suppose, if you want Austria-Hungary to last only a limited amount of time (say, to 1940 or so), you could have them go for the triple monarchy plan (or even quadruple monarchy by adding both South Slavs and Czechs as separate groups). It'd probably stagger on for awhile before collapsing.
 
I had read that the Austro-Hungarian Empire's economy was actually increasing in the years up to World War 1, and the country was industrializing at a steady pace.

Yes it was, but I have to say that industrialization had not yet thoroughly spread out through the empire, but especially happened in certain key regions: as traditionally, Bohemia / Moravia, then Vienna, and increasingly Budapest, Europe's fastest growing metropolis. It is a bit a situation like in present-day China.

Also, I would like add that although AH was not governed properly, or even in a functioning way, it was administered quite well. And the older I get, the suspicion rises that this is far more decisive as long as the politicians don't do too much damage by starting and/or losing a war, e.g.

I'm wondering if it's possible to keep Austria-Hungry around until World War 2 (or, in case World War 2 never happens, to around 1941). It can survive long after that if possible, but I want an AHE around at least until then.

Oh, that is certainly possible, but not with a defeat as in OTL. If defeat happens at least a year earlier and is mitigated somehow, there is a slight chance of survival. If the CPs win, then it is almost certain, though I see increased problems if AH annexes further territories and nationalities.

The best chance is to avoid WW1 and Sarajevo altogether. FF might not have been perfect, but he was at least aware of the problems. Same goes for Karl, actually, but he would only have been up to the challenge in calmer times. During WW1, he didn't stand a chance.

Oh, and similar borders. It doesn't need to be wanked-out, but it can't turn to a shriveled husk either.

That is up to debate, though. I could very well imagine a streamlines AH which has lost Galicia, the Italian, Romanian and Serbian populated areas, but moves on like a company which had to shrink itself to a healthier base. That is, AH would have come down to a maybe easier manageable mix of six nationalities: Hungarians, Germans, Czechs, Slovaks, Croats and Slowenes. If you make Karl I attempt to bail out of the war work (which is a challenge...), then this could be a solution.

Austria-Hungary could have survived, yes. Economics, centralization, crushing the Hungarian elite and therefore being able to give normal Hungarians the right to vote, etc….

More importantly, giving the non-Magyars in Transleithania a right to vote. However, such a reform would have given the elites in Budapest a harder time pushing for more autonomy. Just like the politicians in Vienna, they would have to deal with the smaller nationalities in Parliament as well as with Socialists...

The main matter is the binary code of AH. The Ausgleich of 1867 was a malconstruction born in despair. It grew worse with each renewal and would have become very problematic by 1917 as the aim was to reduce AH more and more to a federation. Reform of the whole monarchy's construction was a very hard thing to do, but the Gordian knot rested in Budapest.

1. Austria-Hungary doesn't really reform, keeps staggering on through the years, kept intact by German intervention (originally, Germany didn't want too many Catholics in the Empire and the addition of the Austrian half of Austria-Hungary would allow them to establish an extremely powerful block). Eventually, a rational government comes to power in Germany and figures out that being shackled to a corpse is too much trouble, allows Austria-Hungary to finally collapse and annexes Austria, Bohemia and Kustenland.

This is just Eurofedian Germanw*** stuff, isn't it? The trouble would really start once the Deutsche Reich tries to incorporate the Czechs, Italians, Slovenes....and how to deal with Galicia???

I find it funny how (outside of the context of the masses of a Russian Army waging war against a completely destroyed AH army,i.e. post late-1914) people assume that AH must be a drain on German ressources. It was not prior to 1914.

And could anyone please point out why destroying your only halfway reliable ally is rational, even in a CP-victory world? However, my assessment that it would be rather idiotic makes it all the more probable, given the tendencies of 20th century German policy-making.

Under whatever circumstances, a breakup of Austria-Hungary would cause more problems for Germany than opportunities.

2. Austria-Hungary does reform (what shape the reform would be depends, there were literally dozens of opinions at the time). Two variants were fairly popular among reformers at the time. Franz Ferdinand advocated a dictatorship from the centre via Imperial Decree (crushing Hungarian independence in the process) ...

I think that this gives a wrong impression. Cisleithania was to a large extent ruled via decree because the Parliament was unable to function. Transleithania's Parliament functioned, but just because the franchise was tailor-made to support the Magyar elites' rule. As these were unwilling to thorougly reform the monarchy, their political power had to be broken, if only temporarily. Hungarian autonomy would be as much reinstated afterwards as the new autonomy of the other nationalities.

(there was, after all, no love lost between many of the nationalities in the Empire). ... Status quo, as it was, was untenable without outside interference.

This is put a bit harsh. There were national antagonisms, especially where the peculiar construction of the Kakanian monarchy set up divide-et-impera policies, but the monarchy could also draw support from enough people who wouldn't want to or couldn't imagine an alternative.

And again, this is just "irritating alternate history cliché", that an surviving Austria-Hungary would need a huge load of German support.

On the diplomatic floor, that is another situation. But what, prior to 1914, would suggest the need for German soldiers or money?

If this occurs before the War, it's likely that the internal chaos (caused by the groups that didn't get their way ... primarily Hungarians, possibly Czechs or Sudeten Germans) would trigger the Great War as every surrounding nation would attempt to get in on the game.

Again, no. Prior to 1914, no nationality within AH was geared towards Civil War - with the single possible exception of the Hungarian honved. Franz Ferdinand was well aware that if he tried to enFORCE reform, he would have to move against Budapest first and that would have been a quick matter.

Czechs and Germans would simply be unable to rip the monarchy apart by armed conflict.

However, it would all be an internal matter of the Danubian monarchy. Europe prior to 1914 was a powder-keg, but not a LAN-match of "Hearts of Iron". None of the neighbours would simply attack Austria-Hungary due to the emperor introducing universal suffrage in Hungary against the will of the nobility. Great Britain wasn't attacked due to the Irish question. Russia not during the 1905 revolution (although there was speculation to do so).

Serbia would lack any support from its major ally. Russia would not attack in such a situation, as has been stated before. And Serbia would have to clearly attack Austria.

Romania and Italy were allied with the CP. Switching sides doesn't happen that fast in peacetime.

Also, what is assured is swift German intervention in order to secure Austria-Hungary's borders.

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If Austria-Hungary survives the 1910s, the 1920s-40s might not be easier, especially if times in Europe are turbulent anyways. It takes careful and bold leadership.

If the monarchy makes it to the middle of the century, then continued survival, especially if standard of living raises as it did in Western Europe in OTL, might actually become more probable.

 

 

 




 
A quick Entente victory in WWI would probably suffice, as would a Central Powers victory circa 1917. If we're talking 1918 only one Central Power will have the same leaders even if it wins as if it loses and that will not be either Germany or Austria-Hungary. Maybe two if we count Bulgaria.
 
A quick Entente victory in WWI would probably suffice, as would a Central Powers victory circa 1917. If we're talking 1918 only one Central Power will have the same leaders even if it wins as if it loses and that will not be either Germany or Austria-Hungary. Maybe two if we count Bulgaria.

Could you please explain?
 
Could you please explain?

Germany had fallen to H & L and I'm not sure Kaiser Karl had what it would take to hold Austria-Hungary together in a long war-postwar peace. The Hindenburg and Ludendorff dictatorship doesn't indicate anything good for A-H postwar.
 
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