Of course knowing the IJN they'll over claim and think they've sunk all 3 American carriers at Coral Sea if Saratoga is there
AHC: Keep Admiral Fletcher in command in late 1942
- Thread starter Kantai Kessen
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Somewhere in the middle.
The Americans will put one or two of the Japanese aircraft carriers out of action for several months. The one or two ships that remain undamaged won't have enough aircrew left to take part in Midway, which leaves them with Akagi, Kaga and Hiryu for Midway.
As @Spencersj345.346 writes the Japanese will think that they have sunk all three American ships, but the reality will be that they only sank Lexington and damaged Saratoga and Yorktown.
If the Japanese still try to force a decisive battle by attempting an invasion of Midway they've only got three aircraft carriers to the two that they think the Americans have, but I think that Yorktown will be repaired as OTL and Saratoga will be repaired to arrive on the scene when she did IOTL.
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There might not be an Indian Ocean Raid if the Japanese think that Saratoga's still operational. No raid, no need for any of the ships to be refitted afterwards with the bonus of no aircrew losses. In that case all six first-line aircraft carriers would have been available to support the invasion of Port Moresby.
So IOTL they thought they'd have a superiority of 2:1.
If the Doolittle Raid still happens IOTL and the same ships are used the Japanese will expect to be opposed by at least two American aircraft carriers. Therefore, I think they'd commit four of the six available ships at the very least to maintain the 2:1 superiority.
However, if I was Yamamoto I'd send all six in case the Americans turn up with a stronger force than expected. It's better to overkill than not kill at all and as Fisher once said, "Moderation in war is imbecility!"
IOTL the Americans had about 40 Wildcats. ITTL they would have about 60. Would the extra fighters have shot down some of the Japanese torpedo bombers?
Heck the damage being split being three carriers might save Lexington even discounting the effects of the extra fighters and AA Saratoga and presumably a few more escorts would bring to the table since it was a near run thing of her being lost in OTL since her captain had ordered her vented mere minutes before she had that AVgas explosion, if said explosion hadn't happened when it did it probably wouldn't have happened and less damage might result in the ci rdd circumstances not occurring at all. On the downside of thing this might not result in one of Yorktown's crew coming up with the bright idea of filling AVgas lines with C02 when not in use and bringing the idea to the captain. Or they still might who knows?
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I couldn't agree more. I followed the example of Frank Fletcher. I was cautious but methodical. Viz.
Another important question as related to Saratoga being at Coral Sea do the butterflies save Neosho because her loss was keenly felt and for that matter what Saratoga not being torpedoed in January of 42 save Neches due to her being elsewhere from where she was sunk in otl?
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And would Wasp be transferred to the Pacific? She might make more club runs to Malta and take part in Operations Harpoon-Vigorous and Pedestal.
Heck she might stay attached to home fleet for a bit longer as well. Washington definitely won't be though
The OTL Operation Pedestal might be Wasp doing the Club Run which allowed Furious to reinforce the convoy's escort. I don't think that it would prevent the loss of Eagle, but the extra fighters might prevent Indomitable from being hit, the destroyer Foresight from being sunk and the sinking of MV Decaulion. The convoy might have been in better order when it entered the Sicilian Narrows which might have resulted in more ships getting through to Malta.
Ranger took part in Operation Torch IOTL. Wasp would probably join her ITTL.
Come at it from the other direction perhaps?
Get Earnie King sacked (or realistically transferred) so Fletcher has a more understanding and competent boss.
Maybe a more successful "Drumbeat", the Germans hold off until they can surge more boats out to the US coast, say a dozen rather than the 5 of OTL. Those Uboats run wild and manage to sink a freighter with someone important on (or someone important's son). There is an enquiry that uncovers Kings role in ignoring all the British warnings and advice on the Uboats, a decision which lead to all those US losses.
Obviously he's not sacked, too well connected for that, but is shunted to something unimportant. CinC great lakes naval defence command or whatever. At which point he cant sack anyone and thus Fletcher survives.
Get Earnie King sacked (or realistically transferred) so Fletcher has a more understanding and competent boss.
Maybe a more successful "Drumbeat", the Germans hold off until they can surge more boats out to the US coast, say a dozen rather than the 5 of OTL. Those Uboats run wild and manage to sink a freighter with someone important on (or someone important's son). There is an enquiry that uncovers Kings role in ignoring all the British warnings and advice on the Uboats, a decision which lead to all those US losses.
Obviously he's not sacked, too well connected for that, but is shunted to something unimportant. CinC great lakes naval defence command or whatever. At which point he cant sack anyone and thus Fletcher survives.
POD is actually fairly simple. Don't bail at The 'Canal.
That permanently gave him a reputation for passivity. He was in command of the failed relief effort of Wake (it remains a subject of some debate if his decision making was designed to preserve his force at the expense of the Island). Coral Sea sort of faded from the limelight after Midway, and was seen as a draw. Spruance was always given (quite properly) the main credit for Midway. For Fletcher it came down to August 8th, 1942. He managed, simply by steaming too far away from Guadalcanal, to wind up with the blame for everything that went wrong, whether it was the failure of Turner's transports to unload in time to the Savo Island debacle, in the early day's of Watchtower and, by extension, turning what "could have been" into what it turned into, a maelstrom that ate men and ships.
Wasn't even close to fair. Still happened.
That permanently gave him a reputation for passivity. He was in command of the failed relief effort of Wake (it remains a subject of some debate if his decision making was designed to preserve his force at the expense of the Island). Coral Sea sort of faded from the limelight after Midway, and was seen as a draw. Spruance was always given (quite properly) the main credit for Midway. For Fletcher it came down to August 8th, 1942. He managed, simply by steaming too far away from Guadalcanal, to wind up with the blame for everything that went wrong, whether it was the failure of Turner's transports to unload in time to the Savo Island debacle, in the early day's of Watchtower and, by extension, turning what "could have been" into what it turned into, a maelstrom that ate men and ships.
Wasn't even close to fair. Still happened.
The KM would have had to sail the Hipper and Tirpitz up the Potomac to shell Washington or at least into New York Harbor to destroy the Statue of Liberty to even get King called onto the carpet.
To be fair to Fletcher he pulled out because he knew something like Eastern Solomons was inevitable pretty darn soon and thus needed to replenish his airwings which had taken quite the battering
I( don't really disagree but the reality is that once you get the rep, especially early in the war, when they were relieving everyone from submarine COs on up for being "peacetime commanders" you were in seriously hot water.
If it had been 1944, and he had been given the credit for Midway, he could have survive the accusation, just as Spruance did at Philippine Sea (although In Spruance's case his "passivity" was actually a matter of doing exactly what Fletcher, and later Halsey, failed to do, protect the landing force). In mid 1942 the impression was a professional death sentence (he was literally sent to a command based at Adak, AK, a location that became synonymous across the Fleet with being exiled).
The fuel problem was what really drove Fletcher off. Solve that and I think he will do much better - see Wasp.
What I don't feel is fair is how some people seem to think Halsey was incompetent merely because of Taffy 3. First, one screw up doesn't make you incompetent. Halsey was as human as the next guy and making mistakes is inevitable. He was also under Nimitz's orders to try and destroy the last remaining carriers. This part seems to be ignored.
Also in the worst case scenario and Taffy 3 is destroyed along with the remaining transports it will hold up the US a few days or weeks, a month at the most. Whatever the Japanese send into the Gulf of Leyte is not coming back out. The reinforcements in the area will eat it for breakfast. One battle does not make or break a military officer and Halsey was in charge of the battle in the first place because he a damned good record .
Yep losing the Pecos, Neches, and especially Neosho really hurt PacFleet in 1942. Had they been around Guadalcanal would have been way easier
Five. The airfield on Guadalcanal would be ready and a fair portion of the air wing at Rabaul moved forward to the east end of the Solomons. That plus a IJA infantry regiment on Guadalcanal probably renders a WATCHTOWER type operation impractical.