AHC:Kamchatka as part of small(er) country.

With a POD after 1800 have the Kamchatkan Peninsula as part of a country that is neither in the top 15 in the world by area nor in the top 15 in size by Population
 
Japan conquers Kamchatka after a war with Russia. By 2050, Japan is projected to have fallen out of the top 15 nations in terms of population, thereby fulfilling your challenge.

Alternatively, have Japan conquer it, populate it with Japanese, and have it revolt against Japan for some reason (communism?), perhaps with the help of the Russians and actual indigenous Kamchatkans.
 
After 1800 is hard... if it was before, I'd say simply butterfly away the Muscovite-Russian expansion and thus Kamchatka would likely be populated solely by Siberian/Manchurian tribes.

Perhaps we could have Russia collapse entirely during a civil war, and Siberia as a whole becomes the continuous territory of one of these post-Russian polities, with a considerably small territory and even more sparse population.
 
After 1800 is hard... if it was before, I'd say simply butterfly away the Muscovite-Russian expansion and thus Kamchatka would likely be populated solely by Siberian/Manchurian tribes.

Perhaps we could have Russia collapse entirely during a civil war, and Siberia as a whole becomes the continuous territory of one of these post-Russian polities, with a considerably small territory and even more sparse population.
The problem is that any significant part of Siberia is likely to put the country into the top 15 by size. The 15th largest country in area is just about a tenth of the size of 2017 Russia.
 
Some White force of some relevance sets up shop there during the Russian Civil War with enough Japanese and American backing that the Soviets don't bother retaking it. It's quite like a Russian "Taiwan" of sorts, but it remains remote and distinct enough that in the end Moscow lets it be. This probably requires Kamchatka NOT being actually hosting a Romanov and quietly dropping any pretense to be "Russia", i.e. just be willing to be left alone. This is rather unlikely for a White Russian force, but you can imagine a rapid influx of Japanese and/or Americans, or maybe the White troops originally involved happen to be majority non-Russian (mostly Baltic German officers with largely Caucasian troops, say? A pretty bizarre happenstance, but in the chaos of the times, perhaps possible) and thus by the thirties the place has a majority uninterested in claiming a non-Soviet Russian identity.
Assuming a butterfly trap, WWI begins roughly on schedule, though Kamchatka is clearly going to be a sticking point between the Soviets, the US and the Japanese that may affect the East Asian theatre. However, let's go for minimal changes: alignments occur like OTL, perhaps the Soviet/Japanese conflict begins earlier (which would have important ramifications later on) but anyway the Kamchatkan government sees where the wind is blowing early and picks America over Japan when hostilities erupt between the two (were they to join the Axis in some capacity, they would be reintegrated into the SU afterwards). Then, they are a minor, but independent Ally, fighting the Japanese alongside the Americans and the Soviets. They are rewarded with continued survival, and they either essentially become a Far Eastern equivalent of Austria in the Cold War (neutral) by switching Japanese protection with the Soviet one, or join one bloc: if they join the Soviet bloc they are likely to become a SSR however, so more likely they become a frontline Western ally, basically somewhat of a colder South Korea (Korea is probably wholly Communist ITTL btw). Notably, this country probably includes most or all the Kurilis too.
All of this requires luck and in not very likely, but it's the best I can do.
 
Some White force of some relevance sets up shop there during the Russian Civil War with enough Japanese and American backing that the Soviets don't bother retaking it. It's quite like a Russian "Taiwan" of sorts, but it remains remote and distinct enough that in the end Moscow lets it be. This probably requires Kamchatka NOT being actually hosting a Romanov and quietly dropping any pretense to be "Russia", i.e. just be willing to be left alone. This is rather unlikely for a White Russian force, but you can imagine a rapid influx of Japanese and/or Americans, or maybe the White troops originally involved happen to be majority non-Russian (mostly Baltic German officers with largely Caucasian troops, say? A pretty bizarre happenstance, but in the chaos of the times, perhaps possible) and thus by the thirties the place has a majority uninterested in claiming a non-Soviet Russian identity.
Assuming a butterfly trap, WWI begins roughly on schedule, though Kamchatka is clearly going to be a sticking point between the Soviets, the US and the Japanese that may affect the East Asian theatre. However, let's go for minimal changes: alignments occur like OTL, perhaps the Soviet/Japanese conflict begins earlier (which would have important ramifications later on) but anyway the Kamchatkan government sees where the wind is blowing early and picks America over Japan when hostilities erupt between the two (were they to join the Axis in some capacity, they would be reintegrated into the SU afterwards). Then, they are a minor, but independent Ally, fighting the Japanese alongside the Americans and the Soviets. They are rewarded with continued survival, and they either essentially become a Far Eastern equivalent of Austria in the Cold War (neutral) by switching Japanese protection with the Soviet one, or join one bloc: if they join the Soviet bloc they are likely to become a SSR however, so more likely they become a frontline Western ally, basically somewhat of a colder South Korea (Korea is probably wholly Communist ITTL btw). Notably, this country probably includes most or all the Kurilis too.
All of this requires luck and in not very likely, but it's the best I can do.

But would White Kamchatka expel the Japanese inhabiting the Kurils like the Soviets did?
 
But would White Kamchatka expel the Japanese inhabiting the Kurils like the Soviets did?

Probably not. It's a relatively tiny and underpopulated country with probably some Japanese population already. They'd need as much manpower as they can get, provided that the Japanese Kurilians are loyal of course. (I assume Japanese defeat to be as total as OTL, perhaps even more so given the likelyhood of earlier Soviet involvement on the mainland).
The gist of my proposal is that Kamchatka is enough of a sideshow to be left largely alone by everyone involved, while being important enough to be recognized as its own country (so it'd be more likely "finlandized" than incorporated in either Cold War bloc, thinking about it).
 
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