AHC: John B. Anderson, Republican nominee 1980

Challenge: Have John B. Anderson be the Republican presidential nominee in 1980. Bonus points if he wins the 1980 elections.

Anderon seemed fo some time on the rise in the primary. He he wins in Massachusetts and Vermont, he may gain enough momentum to win his homestate Illionois and this may turn him in Reagans main opponent. Throw in some gaffes by Reagan and a Anderson victory may be possible. And if he get the nomination he surly ill defeat Carter.
 
Check the TL in my sig...

While I'll admit that we're not at the convention yet in Gone The New Hope, John Anderson is indeed the stop-Reagan candidate in that TL.

In GTNH an utterly bungled Bush race early in the year gives Reagan the "Big Mo" and Anderson receives a lot more press. He might turn off conservative Republicans and confuse open minded Democrats, but he's intriguing enough to be the second place candidate for the entire primary season. You should also know that in GTNH Carter has failed miserably by 1980 and Kennedy (following a car accident that necessitates him stopping his campaign) endorses Gov. Jerry Brown.

Jerry Brown becomes the Democratic nominee and Reagan leads in the Rep. primaries, while Anderson is second. Bush and Kennedy are out.

I can't spoil too much because we're not there yet, but I can say that if Anderson is treated as he was in my TL and if Bush endorses him to stop Reagan, and then Reagan suddenly gets out for some reason (for this challenge, let's say he has an accident and doesn't think he'll recover in time to go to the convention), Anderson would default win at the convention - provided he acts more conservative than he actually is, picks a popular and very conservative VP... and no one can agree on a dark horse.

After that, Anderson will be going head to head against Carter (Brown in my TL, but in yours, I'll assume Carter), but pretty soon the Republicans would get wise to some of Anderson's more liberal beliefs and start shittin' kittens. (This will inevitably happen, Anderson at some point during this time came out with confessions of an awful lot of social and foreign policy progressivism. He'll scare the shit out of the base right after they nominate him.)

What happens next is anyone's guess. Does the base launch a third party campaign with a true conservative?

Doesn't matter.

Anderson may lose a lot of Republican support, but he'll probably also attract a lot of Democrats and Independents.

In a two way race against a very unpopular Carter, Anderson will probably win by a narrow margin. (I predict voter turnout will be lower than OTL.)

In a three way race where the conservative base pulls out of Republican support it's harder as it will likely confuse and split Republicans.

However, if Anderson plays his cards just right and paints Carter as a good man but a failed president, and the third party IndieCon as a sore loser, while also managing to attract support from independents (whose votes actually win elections), Democrats, and of course party-loyal Republicans, I could see the election being a nail biter with a possible Anderson win. Whoever wins will win by a pubic hair out of a three way split electorate, however.

It's not really a good start to a presidency, being just barely the nation's choice out of THREE tickets, but it sets up some really interesting political WIs to follow, particularly as the IndieCons who jumped ship have now successfully launched the most successful third party attempt maybe ever, and also have federal matching funds and an eye on 1984. Exciting shit, man. I love it.

I rambled, I apologize, but I hope the first part helped a little, at least.
 
It's interesting that (despite the outcome) there were a lot of decent moderate-to-liberal candidates in the running on the GOP side (far more than in any primary race since) - as well as Anderson you had GHWB, Baker, Dole and Weicker.

With a nominee Anderson much of the South probably wouldn't be overly contested, but he'd have to choose a conservative running mate. Reagan would likely have been seen as past it after losing the nomination, so not him. I think Senator Paul Laxalt of Nevada would have made about the best choice (he was a close friend of Reagan).

California and most of the West goes easily for Anderson. All of New England aside from Rhode Island votes for Anderson too. I imagine Carter would take the majority of the South and maybe just squeak by in New York and Pennsylvania. The real decider (as it often is) would be the Midwest. Illinois votes for its native son. Ohio and Michigan just about fall to Anderson too, giving him an electoral victory.
 
One advantage that Anderson lacks that Bush had is the ability to appeal to the Southern voters, which is one reason I see a Bush victory in the primaries as more likely than Anderson. Should Bush be able to survive Reagan's victory in New Hampshire, he'd not only have an advantage in New England and Northern moderate states, he'd in theory have a much greater advantage in Dixie than Anderson ever could. With this, Anderson's primary victories are relegated only to Northern states, and Reagan has a significant amount of strength out West as well.
 
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