AHC: Japanese Victory in WWII

The Axis were warned the Allies were reading their codes. If they believe them and change them, then use of spotter planes actually would catch the Americans by surprise. The Japanese win a naval battle but the inability to land on the island turns it into a Japanese version of the Battle of the Coral Sea (tactical victory, strategic defeat).

When does this POD of Japanese knowing the Purple Codes been broken take place? How? What are the variables? How effective will thiis airpower employed against the ships be, considering that even in Leyte where the Americans had upper-hand in aircraft strength, airpower could not entirely sink the Combined Fleet remnants? What happens when the enemy does not follow the plan?

All this must happen during or after 1 Jan 1942.


No, but then their refusal to fight a joint campaign certainly did not help the Allies, either.

So basically the Axis & Allies have their share of positives and negatives, and the Allies horribly outmatch them industrially. Gotcha.




All I'm saying is if German leadership really was that good, they would have won the damned war.

So again, do you believe that Nazi Germany could provide Lend-Lease levels of aid to its Japanese ally, or even its Italian ally, without breaking its back?
 

CalBear

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Rising Sun Victorious has a scenario where Kurita is able via a combination of luck and allied recklessness to get at the Leyte anchorages with Yamato and several cruisers and devastate all the landing craft and supply ships; effectively crippling US major landing capability for some time; and FDR accepts a Peace where Japan gives up all gains after Dec 1941

I am not an expert on the Pacific and cannot speak to if this scenario or the peace itself is ASB


I remarked on this in another thread. The scenario was impossible.

The American forces off Leyte had close to 60 destroyers in attendance, that is around 600 torpedoes and 300 5" guns. Assuming that 90% fail to connect, that is around six per IJN ship (in the actual action TWO destroyers and a DE managed to cripple three heavy cruisers, and tear a chunk off another).

Overall the Americans had 450 aircraft available just on the Taffy CVEs (or about 10% more than the Kido Butai had at Pearl Harbor). The IJN ships hadn't a prayer on Earth.

The Japanese, IOTL, despite the shocking surprise their approach caused, had around SIX hours between the time they engaged the first Taffy formation until they had strike aircraft over them from Halsey's carriers. they wouldn't have had time to reach the 'phibs, even if they somehow managed to fight through 450 aircraft and 60 destroyers All that happens if Kurita pushed forward is that Yamato sinks off the Philippines instead of off the Ryukyus.

Japan had one chance of "winning" the Pacific War. It required them to stay home, and keep out of the damned war. They had no hope of defeating China, much less the Commonwealth. Throwing in the U.S. on top of that pile just meant the end would be sooner, and as it turned out, mushroom shaped.
 
When does this POD of Japanese knowing the Purple Codes been broken take place? How? What are the variables? How effective will thiis airpower employed against the ships be, considering that even in Leyte where the Americans had upper-hand in aircraft strength, airpower could not entirely sink the Combined Fleet remnants? What happens when the enemy does not follow the plan?

All this must happen during or after 1 Jan 1942.

Simple: the Germans believe one of the many warnings the Enigma Codes were broken, they warn their allies, prove theirs were, Japan decides to change theirs, the USA gets curbstomped navally but Japan's inability to hold the island or even to conquer it shows that Japan can win sea battles but not land ones.

So basically the Axis & Allies have their share of positives and negatives, and the Allies horribly outmatch them industrially. Gotcha.

Where if the Axis had made efficient use of their conquest the gap between the two industrially is much narrower. Given that at this stage of the war the Axis can have actually superior manpower even against the Soviet Union.....

So again, do you believe that Nazi Germany could provide Lend-Lease levels of aid to its Japanese ally, or even its Italian ally, without breaking its back?

If it exploited what it conquered properly, yes, until the USA's production kicks in. If it follows OTL policies, no. But then this *is* an AH scenario.
 
I remarked on this in another thread. The scenario was impossible.

The American forces off Leyte had close to 60 destroyers in attendance, that is around 600 torpedoes and 300 5" guns. Assuming that 90% fail to connect, that is around six per IJN ship (in the actual action TWO destroyers and a DE managed to cripple three heavy cruisers, and tear a chunk off another).

Overall the Americans had 450 aircraft available just on the Taffy CVEs (or about 10% more than the Kido Butai had at Pearl Harbor). The IJN ships hadn't a prayer on Earth.

The Japanese, IOTL, despite the shocking surprise their approach caused, had around SIX hours between the time they engaged the first Taffy formation until they had strike aircraft over them from Halsey's carriers. they wouldn't have had time to reach the 'phibs, even if they somehow managed to fight through 450 aircraft and 60 destroyers All that happens if Kurita pushed forward is that Yamato sinks off the Philippines instead of off the Ryukyus.

Japan had one chance of "winning" the Pacific War. It required them to stay home, and keep out of the damned war. They had no hope of defeating China, much less the Commonwealth. Throwing in the U.S. on top of that pile just meant the end would be sooner, and as it turned out, mushroom shaped.

Not to mention even if they *can* somehow pull off a tactical victory at Leyte Gulf the losses they take will still be many and the IJA won't benefit from that very much.
 
Not to mention even if they *can* somehow pull off a tactical victory at Leyte Gulf the losses they take will still be many and the IJA won't benefit from that very much.

Actually, while I completely agree that the Center Force wouldn't have been able to do much (if any) damage to the invasion fleet, by that point in the war the IJN couldn't stand up to the USN in a straight fight anyway. I'd argue that smashing a USN amphib assault echelon, however high the cost, was the best use available for the IJN surface fleet.

Remember, they didn't know how close the US was to the atomic bomb. They figured (possibly correctly) that there was a threshold of casualties that the US wouldn't be willing to go above in order to win if they could, instead, get Japan to surrender conditionally. The further from the Home Islands they could push the US above that threshold, the more conditions they could attach in the peace negotiations.
 
Gridley, the Japanese had so many stupid ideas which they treated as strategy that it's hard to treat their vision of the US becoming weary of casualties, this after all the operations for three years had invariably shown a casualty ratio extremely favorable to the US, as anything more than another delusion on Tokyo's part.


Snake, yes, it's often forgotten that Japan effectively threw away her last carriers and a third of her battleships as diversions for that battle. The wisdom of anyone willing to sacrifice so much of their fleet guaranteed in return for a possible victory in another area which might buy a few months if it succeeds speaks for itself.



As one example of Yamamoto's alleged competence, at Midway he had no less than eleven battleships plus various escorts burning vast sums of Japan's precious oil, four of them far to the north and out of the battle and the other seven hundreds of miles behind the IJN carriers and also of no use. Had he simply had the amount of fuel wasted by these ships and their many escorts dumped in the Pacific it would at least have saved wear and tear on the machinery and cost Japan nothing more.
 
I remarked on this in another thread. The scenario was impossible.

The American forces off Leyte had close to 60 destroyers in attendance, that is around 600 torpedoes and 300 5" guns. Assuming that 90% fail to connect, that is around six per IJN ship (in the actual action TWO destroyers and a DE managed to cripple three heavy cruisers, and tear a chunk off another).

Overall the Americans had 450 aircraft available just on the Taffy CVEs (or about 10% more than the Kido Butai had at Pearl Harbor). The IJN ships hadn't a prayer on Earth.

The Japanese, IOTL, despite the shocking surprise their approach caused, had around SIX hours between the time they engaged the first Taffy formation until they had strike aircraft over them from Halsey's carriers. they wouldn't have had time to reach the 'phibs, even if they somehow managed to fight through 450 aircraft and 60 destroyers All that happens if Kurita pushed forward is that Yamato sinks off the Philippines instead of off the Ryukyus.

Japan had one chance of "winning" the Pacific War. It required them to stay home, and keep out of the damned war. They had no hope of defeating China, much less the Commonwealth. Throwing in the U.S. on top of that pile just meant the end would be sooner, and as it turned out, mushroom shaped.

I figured as much; like I said my knowledge of the Pacific is pretty chronological, no details or mass of family connections like i have with the ETO
 
Gridley, the Japanese had so many stupid ideas which they treated as strategy that it's hard to treat their vision of the US becoming weary of casualties, this after all the operations for three years had invariably shown a casualty ratio extremely favorable to the US, as anything more than another delusion on Tokyo's part.


Snake, yes, it's often forgotten that Japan effectively threw away her last carriers and a third of her battleships as diversions for that battle. The wisdom of anyone willing to sacrifice so much of their fleet guaranteed in return for a possible victory in another area which might buy a few months if it succeeds speaks for itself.



As one example of Yamamoto's alleged competence, at Midway he had no less than eleven battleships plus various escorts burning vast sums of Japan's precious oil, four of them far to the north and out of the battle and the other seven hundreds of miles behind the IJN carriers and also of no use. Had he simply had the amount of fuel wasted by these ships and their many escorts dumped in the Pacific it would at least have saved wear and tear on the machinery and cost Japan nothing more.

Indeed. The IJN stands as one of the only branches of service in any supposedly civilized country to seek to deliberately destroy itself. Even a victory at Leyte Gulf will be Pyrrhic, as after all, the USA is churning out ships at its greatest speed in the war at that point. It's like trying to find a means for Germany to win WWII in Europe after June 1944 and Bagration and D-Day.
 
Although this may go into ASB territory Is Japan removing troops from China, elect a puppet regime in Manchuria and a friendly puppe regime in Korea.... Then it will not be embargoed for oil and Japan will not do Pearl Harbor..:: Next have the militarists die, the best way and most cheap way is have them eat contaminated food which has Tapeworm eggs, and son have them due due to constriction of stomach, Liver and heart, Then Japan remains Neutral in the war, pissing of Germany but Hitler can't do anything cause of the Huge distance then in the 1943 as the Tide is turning for Alloes have Japan declare war on the vile facist Germany, Soon gaining access through allied ports and so Germany falls while Japan due to siding with allies is not destroyed, plus it has friendly puppet gov in Asia, they could also funa the Kuomintong and we could see a greatear Asian co prosperity sphere where the Asian nations are in a allaince led by Japan so we could see a threeway cold war beetween USSR, America, and Japan..... What do you think, this is the best 1940 pod I can come up with that might work, but I think it's still ASB, listen OP Japan set up it's own grave at pearl harbor any pod after Japan is dead, no matter how lucky they are, America will jus completly ocerproduce Japan, srry dude it's completly ASB for a pod after 1942
 
Simple: the Germans believe one of the many warnings the Enigma Codes were broken, they warn their allies, prove theirs were, Japan decides to change theirs, the USA gets curbstomped navally but Japan's inability to hold the island or even to conquer it shows that Japan can win sea battles but not land ones.

Actually, the Germans DID just that. What happened? They ignored it, as pro forma of the Japanese military complex.

The Japanese believed it to be effectively unbreakable throughout the war, and even for sometime after the war, even though they had been informed otherwise by the Germans. In April 1941, Hans Thomsen, a diplomat at the German embassy in Washington, D.C., sent a message to Joachim von Ribbentrop, the German foreign minister, informing him that "an absolutely reliable source" had told Thomsen that the Americans had broken the Japanese diplomatic cipher (that is, Purple). That source apparently was Konstantin Umansky, the Soviet ambassador to the US, who had deduced the leak based upon communications from Sumner Welles. The message was duly forwarded to the Japanese; but use of the code continued.



Snake Featherston said:
Where if the Axis had made efficient use of their conquest the gap between the two industrially is much narrower. Given that at this stage of the war the Axis can have actually superior manpower even against the Soviet Union.....

Again, how is this going to help when they're literally seperated by 10,000+ miles of ocean and land and in wartime. A better bet, as said before, would be a POD in the '20s and/or early 30s, where you could have ACTUAL changes with long-term significance and most importantly the time for all that to change. 1942 OTL was not that time.


Snake Featherston said:
If it exploited what it conquered properly, yes, until the USA's production kicks in. If it follows OTL policies, no. But then this *is* an AH scenario.

So again, do you believe that Nazi Germany could provide Lend-Lease levels of aid to its Japanese ally, or even its Italian ally, without breaking its back?

Here folks, Axiswankery at its finest.

DESUAXIS.jpg
 
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Gridley, the Japanese had so many stupid ideas which they treated as strategy that it's hard to treat their vision of the US becoming weary of casualties, this after all the operations for three years had invariably shown a casualty ratio extremely favorable to the US, as anything more than another delusion on Tokyo's part.

Granted to some extent, but even a broken clock is right twice a day (unless of course it is a military clock...).

The US was taken aback by the cost of places like Okinawa in OTL. I think there actually WAS a casualty threshold the US wouldn't have been willing to pass, but it was beyond the capability of the Japanese to inflict that many casualties against the US before they were conquered.
 
Japanese victory?

I honestly don't see how this can happen after 1942. Not unless the get a huge influx of German wonder weapons and even that would only postpone defeat. Even if they had found a way to unleash biological warefar upon the West Coast, all that would have done is to further P.O. the american people.

IF, and this is a big IF, the Germans had altered their strategy for Barbarossa AND the Japanese had attacked north, instead of south, it might have worked out for the Japanese, in the short term. The main problem with this is that the Japanese armor was too scarce, under-gunned and did not have the experience in armored warfare, like the German's did. Also, they need to have not declared war on the U.S.

Had they up-gunned their medium tanks (to match the Soviets) and figured out that they needed to mass their armor (better tactics), they very well might have inflicted some defeats upon the Red Army.. Then again, the Germans would have had to do much better on their end in the USSR. Lot of if's here...
 
Even if Japan had won at Midway, Leyte Gulf, or some other battle, it's still difficult to see how they could have won the war. Proponents of the notion that Japan could have won the war seem to accept the premise that the United States would eventually tire of blood and bodies and go home, but I'm actually not sure how valid this assumption is. During the Civil War, both sides fought bitterly for four years at the cost of hundreds of thousands of deaths and widespread suffering for civilians. The Philippine-American War is left out of most history books, but it went on for over 10 years. Even the American Revolution went on for 8 years. Hell, we've been in Afghaistan for nine years (and will probably be there for at least nine more) and Iraq for seven.

The American people and government were so angry after Pearl Harbor that there was no way they would have given up if there was any chance of Japan dominating the Pacific.
 
Something I'm just throwing out there...

What if the Nazi Nuke Program gets total support through 1942, and sometime late that year or in 1943, they test a successful weapon? Combined with other Axis successes in the war, does this make a more secure Japanese Empire plausible?
 

archaeogeek

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Something I'm just throwing out there...

What if the Nazi Nuke Program gets total support through 1942, and sometime late that year or in 1943, they test a successful weapon? Combined with other Axis successes in the war, does this make a more secure Japanese Empire plausible?

You'd need different scientists, too, since those on Germany's nuclear program were apparently convinced it was not possible, and of course a decapitation strike over a) contested airspace and b) having to hit as far into contested airspace as Moscow will be very much borderline impossible. 40s nukes probably can't do much of a decapitation strike on a mostly steel-and-concrete and extremely large city like Moscow. As for the others, Stalingrad and Leningrad lost 90-95% of their population in the street fighting, you can't destroy them more... Ditto for London (similar circumstances to Moscow, too, extremely large city, but maybe slightly more fragile) - a nuke could hurt but not that much.
 
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