The Axis were warned the Allies were reading their codes. If they believe them and change them, then use of spotter planes actually would catch the Americans by surprise. The Japanese win a naval battle but the inability to land on the island turns it into a Japanese version of the Battle of the Coral Sea (tactical victory, strategic defeat).
When does this POD of Japanese knowing the Purple Codes been broken take place? How? What are the variables? How effective will thiis airpower employed against the ships be, considering that even in Leyte where the Americans had upper-hand in aircraft strength, airpower could not entirely sink the Combined Fleet remnants? What happens when the enemy does not follow the plan?
All this must happen during or after 1 Jan 1942.
No, but then their refusal to fight a joint campaign certainly did not help the Allies, either.
So basically the Axis & Allies have their share of positives and negatives, and the Allies horribly outmatch them industrially. Gotcha.
All I'm saying is if German leadership really was that good, they would have won the damned war.
So again, do you believe that Nazi Germany could provide Lend-Lease levels of aid to its Japanese ally, or even its Italian ally, without breaking its back?