AHC: Japanese Hawaii

Amakusa Shiro, leader of the OTL Shimabara Rebellion dies of illness and the rebellion never happens. Matsukara Shigemasa of the Shimabara Domain is free to plan and execute a successful invasion of Luzon and isolation policies towards the West are not tightened but actually lessened in pursuit of a colonial empire, supported by the Dutch in order to eliminate their Spanish competition in the Far East. Hawaii would, once a Tokugawa deep-sea navy is established, be an obvious choice. Korean, Chinese and South-East Asian states would be a lot more difficult to subjugate.
 
It's very far out, though, Japan did not reach even Marcus Island until 1886, by which time it's much too late for Hawaii.

The big problem is that Hawaii, for Japan, is too remote, mcdo, one of our resident Japan experts, once floated around a TL about Toyotomi Hideyoshi expanding southwards, instead of into Korea, towards Taiwan and the Philippines, that might create a Japanese thalassocracy, but on the other hand, the jump from "sea power" to Hawaii is still a fairly large one. A Japanese thalassocracy would, I think, concentrate more on interests in the South Pacific, around Indonesia and Southeast Asia, than in remote Pacific islands.
 
Didn't one OTL king of Hawaii seek stronger ties with Japan as a balance against American influence?
Yes, I think it was Kamama (sp?) the third. He was worried about the growing american inflence and how it looks as if the US was planning a coup to remove the Hawaiian royal family and put Americans in charge. Turns out he was right. I think it was in the 1920's.
 
Yes, I think it was Kamama (sp?) the third. He was worried about the growing american inflence and how it looks as if the US was planning a coup to remove the Hawaiian royal family and put Americans in charge. Turns out he was right. I think it was in the 1920's.

1890s actually. Hawaii became a US territory in 1898.
 

mowque

Banned
Maybe the key is to reduce the USA, as to keep Hawaii 'open longer' then to speed up Japan?
 

birdboy2000

Banned
Hawaii adopted Christianity and formed ties with other western nations very early in the unified kingdom's history. It's one thing for it to fall to the United States after the monarchy's been overthrown by local, white and pro-American elements - another for it to fall to a country where Christianity has recently been legalized.

I can't see the great powers allowing it in a timeline anywhere near OTL's.
 
Yes, I think it was Kamama (sp?) the third. He was worried about the growing american inflence and how it looks as if the US was planning a coup to remove the Hawaiian royal family and put Americans in charge. Turns out he was right. I think it was in the 1920's.

That would be King Kalakaua and he was proposing a marriage between his niece Kaiulani and a minor member of the Imperial Japanese Family.
 
The best bet I think is in the second half of the 19th century, IOTL their was a large wave of Japanese laborers to the islands (whose descendants, along with later arrivals, comprise 12.6% of Hawaii's population), so if you could get this to continue* to the point that say the Japanese either form the plurality or the second largest group after the Polynesians (at the time), then you could perhaps see a situation where Japan becomes interested in it as a result.


*The only reason it stopped IOTL was because the Emperor forbade emigration to Hawaii to prevent the 'view of the Japanese race being degraded'.
 
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