It's very far out, though, Japan did not reach even Marcus Island until 1886, by which time it's much too late for Hawaii.
The big problem is that Hawaii, for Japan, is too remote, mcdo, one of our resident Japan experts, once floated around a TL about Toyotomi Hideyoshi expanding southwards, instead of into Korea, towards Taiwan and the Philippines, that might create a Japanese thalassocracy, but on the other hand, the jump from "sea power" to Hawaii is still a fairly large one. A Japanese thalassocracy would, I think, concentrate more on interests in the South Pacific, around Indonesia and Southeast Asia, than in remote Pacific islands.