AHC: Japanese Empire...a Superpower

Yeah, if.

Drive the Tanks at night, stick them under the nets during the day.
Yeah and leave torn up roads in their wake that will be noticeable.
Yeah, after 9 months to the day (as opposed to only 4 days after Pearl harbour).
I never said the Japanese would attack the USSR on the first day.
Assuming the war in Europe ends in 1945 as our one did, that gives Russia at least 5 years to build Mao up.
At the same time its rebuilding from WW2, as well as building up and reinforcing the fledgling Warsaw Pact. Its doable, but it might be a bit of a stretch.
The nearest point on the Western Sino-Soviet border is about 2,100 Km from the westernmost point of Manchuria, that's hardly "within a reachable distance" for a non-mechanised army (or even a mechanised one for that matter).
True. But how good are the roads and railways there?
Most of it is desert, mountains and wasteland, the only roads and railways that are truly usable for large scale transportation is near Japanese territory. The USSR supplying China that way would be at least as bad as the Burma Road.

They won't need to, those supplies will have been carefully built up over years in advance.
This makes it almost certain that the Japanese will know about it. When two countries hate each other they almost always have a decent idea of what is across the border waiting to attack. Japan and China would be no different. So the Japanese would know that China has a large stockpile of weapons and supplies near the border (they have to be unless you want the Chinese offensive to move at a crawl), this means Japan will make more and stronger forts and have lots of soldiers waiting behind the lines to plug any breaches. It would be a more primitive version of the East and West German border.
Because the cities don't contribute anything to his supplies.
So the cities don't supply soldiers? Guns? Ammo? Factories? Workers? Trained professionals?
Or does Mao get all these things from the Soviets?
Assuming they know it's there, and they know its size.

Assuming the same budget, this means less money going to either the infantry, or the navy, which means you've either got a smaller (but overall better) army, or a smaller navy.
If the Soviets are sending enough supplies to build up the Chinese army into a good fighting force its extremely likely that the Japanese will at least have a clue whats going on. They won't know the exact numbers, quality, or types, but they'll know China is getting a mechanized army.
This should push the Japanese into preparing for it. And ITTL Japan has had the same amount of time with no major fighting to build up its resources. So the Navy probably won't grow much and may shrink a little from 1945 to 1950 or so, but not enough to make them howl. And the army can get some decent anti-tank weapons and artillery.

Well Ammo is easy enough to hide, most of the tanks probably won't last long enough to use their full 70+ rounds. Fuel and food would be harder though.[/QUOTE}
Your still sending hundreds of tons to within spitting distance of the Japanese border to prepare for this assault. The Japanese will notice at least some of the construction going on for bunkers and storage facilities. Even if they don't notice the trucks and peasants moving these supplies all over the place.
It will cause some concern even if the Japanese aren't sure what exactly is happening.
And vice-versa, there will probably be plenty of Chinese in Manchuria willing to spy for Mao's forces.
And the Japanese won't care. Unless they go crazy they won't want to fight a war with a Soviet or American ally, especially one that has been building up for 5 or more years. They'll be too worried about being attacked in the rear. So the Chinese spies will see the Japanese fortifying the border even more, and preparing for a possible assault.
Unless they were decoys, and moving south.
THat is the smart thing for China to do, and it would cause some confusion. But when you have several hundred tanks and thousands of trucks moving all over the place, and conflicting reports the smart thing to do is to batten down the hatches and prepare for a storm.
As long as Japan is ready for an attack, even if they're not certain when and where it will hit, they can lessen the blow and recover more quickly.

And I still say Japan would make a pretty poor superpower.
Agreed.
 
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Yeah and leave torn up roads in their wake that will be noticeable.
More than about 500 miles from the border, probably not, or at least, the Japanese probably wouldn't be running routine aerial reconnaissance flights beyond that very often. Also, T-34s excel at cross-country (they were made for Russian terrain), so they might not actually use roads.

I never said the Japanese would attack the USSR on the first day.
The simple fact of the matter is, Germany didn't declare war over lend-lease, and the Japanese would be stupid to.

At the same time its rebuilding from WW2, as well as building up and reinforcing the fledgling Warsaw Pact.
True.

True. But how good are the roads and railways there?
Most of it is desert, mountains and wasteland, the only roads and railways that are truly usable for large scale transportation is near Japanese territory. The USSR supplying China that way would be at least as bad as the Burma Road.
I was thinking of the main road between Alma Ata and Ürümqi, but I've no idea how good the conditions would be.

This makes it almost certain that the Japanese will know about it. When two countries hate each other they almost always have a decent idea of what is across the border waiting to attack. Japan and China would be no different. So the Japanese would know that China has a large stockpile of weapons and supplies near the border (they have to be unless you want the Chinese offensive to move at a crawl), this means Japan will make more and stronger forts and have lots of soldiers waiting behind the lines to plug any breaches.
Actually, I was thinking the Chinese would hold their forces way back (no closer to the border than Taiyuan) until they're actually ready to attack.

So the cities don't supply soldiers? Guns? Ammo? Factories? Workers? Trained professionals?
Or does Mao get all these things from the Soviets?
Mao's getting that stuff from the Soviets, he doesn't really have any other allies (it wasn't until 1971 that the PRC was accepted onto the UN Security Council).

If the Soviets are sending enough supplies to build up the Chinese army into a good fighting force its extremely likely that the Japanese will at least have a clue whats going on. They won't know the exact numbers, quality, or types, but they'll know China is getting a mechanized army.
Yeah, I suppose it would be hard to move a couple of hundred tanks a month in and not get them noticed somehow.
 
Japan doesn't have the manpower to be a superpower on its own, period. Also, as others have mentioned, resources are a problem. This means again, unless they Nipponize enough areas and do thoroughly enough (again, Taiwan and Korea absolute musts, and the second one is going to be a bit harder than the first), they won't have the manpower at all.

One of the things I remember from a wiki article on the whole "East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere" was a quote by Ba Maw, saying if the Japanese had actually acted on that idea, instead of paying just lip service to it, they would have had a much better position within the rest of Asia, even if they did get into a war and lose.

I'm thinking that maybe instead of creating an outright empire and colonies, the idea of puppet states might work better for Japan, but again, they would have to have a lot more ummm, nunchi I guess to make that a viable solution. For an actual empire, a question might come up as to exactly how one would go about Nipponification, and more importantly, in the context of what's intended to be a long-term empire, how does one define being part of this empire. I could see them making Japanese as the language of the empire, sort of like China with Mandarin, Malaysia with English, etc. China in particular would be a good example to use, where there is no official discrimination to getting higher on the ladder if you speak your native tongue, but economically, it is well, "encouraged", thus some Uighurs, Tibetans, etc. are gradually becoming linguistically Sinicized, if for no other reason than it being a major boost for their future economic prospects. Long-term, perhaps doing something similar to the UK today, Korean Parliament, Taiwanese Parliament, Japanese Parliament, and maybe a Parliament for the Empire as a whole. Repeat for other nations/colonies that are also annexed or incorporated directly into the Empire.

Another interesting POD might be if after the Russo-Japanese war, Japan gets all of Sakhalin Island, instead of just half of it. IIRC, getting only have actually pissed Japan off a bit, the thinking being that the other great powers were trying to treat Japan as a middle power when they considered themselves now to be a great power. That could have a good or bad effect towards this end, either giving them even more victory disease or nipping resentment at other great powers in the bud. I think Italy had the same issue after WWI, they wanted to be treated as the victors, but they felt that for being victors they got the short end of the stick.

These might be stepping stones though, overall I see it as a pretty damn difficult task to get them up to anything beyond economic superpower.
 
More than about 500 miles from the border, probably not, or at least, the Japanese probably wouldn't be running routine aerial reconnaissance flights beyond that very often. Also, T-34s excel at cross-country (they were made for Russian terrain), so they might not actually use roads.
If they don't use the road it will force the tanks to go through a lot of maintenance when they finally reach their destination. Its doable, but it will hurt their performance once they get where they're going. And for the actual attack you want them nice and close so that break downs don't have a chance of happening.

The simple fact of the matter is, Germany didn't declare war over lend-lease, and the Japanese would be stupid to.
If Japan is being swamped by tanks from the USSR they may think they don't have a choice but to stop the flow by any means possible. But you're quite right they would likely avoid that except as a last resort.

I was thinking of the main road between Alma Ata and Ürümqi, but I've no idea how good the conditions would be.
Its not much of a road, in quite a few parts its a dirt trail. So passable, but not good for pushing a lot of supplies.

Actually, I was thinking the Chinese would hold their forces way back (no closer to the border than Taiyuan) until they're actually ready to attack.
The type of build up your talking about would be known by Japan, no matter how far away it is from the border. Its similar to how the US knew what type of tanks and armour the Soviets had even when they weren't used in combat. They might only know about it from rumours, and very basic reports, but they could know that the Chinese were getting Soviet tanks. New, used, the exact model, the exact number would all be vague, but they'd have an idea.
Now who has borders with China ITTL? Japan, Afghanistan, Mongolia, Tibet, Myanmar, USSR and India. If China is getting tanks in large numbers from the Soviets, its not going to be for defense against the Tibetans. They might be used against India. But the smart money would be that they would be used against Japan. So Japan had better get some anti-armour capabilities.


Mao's getting that stuff from the Soviets, he doesn't really have any other allies (it wasn't until 1971 that the PRC was accepted onto the UN Security Council).
So the Soviet Union is bankrolling, supplying, and even sending soldiers to China to fight?
Why?
I could see the Soviets helping China build itself up to act as an ally against Japan, but to supply virtually all of the war materials themselves? It would be simpler and less risky for the USSR to simply declare war itself.
 
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If they don't use the road it will force the tanks to go through a lot of maintenance when they finally reach their destination. Its doable, but it will hurt their performance once they get where they're going. And for the actual attack you want them nice and close so that break downs don't have a chance of happening.
Well from the Western Sino-Soviet border to Ürümqi is probably beyond the range of more than a once-a-month operation and thus the roads would be relatively safe, and probably down to Lanzhou or Xi'an is probably not much more likely to get spotted. From there on it might be more advisable to go cross-coutry.

Its not much of a road, in quite a few parts its a dirt trail. So passable, but not good for pushing a lot of supplies.
Yeah, and the Soviets didn't toy with half-tracks the way the Germans and Americans did, so it'd be difficult to force too many supplies through.

Now who has borders with China ITTL? Japan, Afghanistan, Mongolia, Tibet, Myanmar, USSR and India. If China is getting tanks in large numbers from the Soviets, its not going to be for defense against the Tibetans. They might be used against India. But the smart money would be that they would be used against Japan.
True, although use against the KMT is as likely as against Japan.


So the Soviet Union is bankrolling, supplying, and even sending soldiers to China to fight?
Why?
Because they'd prefer most of their border to be with Mao rather than Hirohito, and besides, global communism and all that.

I could see the Soviets helping China build itself up to act as an ally against Japan, but to supply virtually all of the war materials themselves? It would be simpler and less risky for the USSR to simply declare war itself.
Ah, but in supplying materials to China, they're not attacking another sovereign power, they're merely helping an oppressed people against their oppressor. Of course, building Mao up as an actual ally rather than a proxy state probably would be more likely.
 
Well from the Western Sino-Soviet border to Ürümqi is probably beyond the range of more than a once-a-month operation and thus the roads would be relatively safe, and probably down to Lanzhou or Xi'an is probably not much more likely to get spotted. From there on it might be more advisable to go cross-coutry.
If you put a lot of tanks through on bad roads its noticeable. And if you put them through slowly it will take a long long time to accomplish the build up.

True, although use against the KMT is as likely as against Japan.
If the KMT is still around the Japanese will probably make deal with them. The KMT hit the communists from behind while the Japanese hold their main forces at the front. The KMT gets to keep most or all of the Communist territory and sign an alliance with the Japanese. If the Japanese haven't been committing atrocities against the Chinese most non-communists wouldn't be dead set against it. Although they may be unhappy.
Mao would have to be an idiot to attack the Japanese without having China under his control or in a very strong alliance.
Because they'd prefer most of their border to be with Mao rather than Hirohito, and besides, global communism and all that.
Supplying rebels with money and weapons for colonial and anti-government uprisings is one thing. Even supplying weapons to nations that are then used to attack other small countries is different. Giving a huge level of support to a weak country to attack one of the top 5 (ITTL's 1950's it would be USA, USSR, Britain, Japan remember big European war, no Asian war) is very different. It would be like the Soviets supplying weapons, food, supplies and advisers to Cuba for the sole purpose of attacking Canada.
Ah, but in supplying materials to China, they're not attacking another sovereign power, they're merely helping an oppressed people against their oppressor. Of course, building Mao up as an actual ally rather than a proxy state probably would be more likely.
When you supply 99% of the weapons and 80% of the supplies, and continue to do so after your 'ally' goes to war, you're not just helping you're at war.
This is why the Cuban Missile Crisis almost went hot. The USSR supplied the nukes. In this case while there are no nukes its 99% of the army.
Now to get all of this stuff to China, it has to go through rough terrain over terrible roads. It will be controlled by an army that isn't used to using mechanized units or heavy weapons. Even in OTL while fighting the Japanese the Communists relied on infantry and very few heavy weapons. During the Chinese Civil War, most of their artillery and mechanized units came from defecting KMT soldiers.
To change to a mechanized army would require years of practice, which doesn't exactly help with a secret build up. Even then they would lack actual combat experience, which will hurt them when they go on the offensive.
Also Stalin in OTL was not a very trusting soul, if he was giving China all of these military weapons he'd want to make sure they were used well and insists on a high level of control. This would anger Mao, much like OTL. If the Soviets are supplying so many tanks and supplies I could see Stalin insisting on treating China more like a Warsaw Pact member (I.E. under his thumb) rather than an ally. When Stalin tried this in OTL it caused the Sino-Soviet Split. This TL may not be quite as drastic, but I doubt the Chinese would play along to the Soviets tune so closely.
 
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