AHC: Japan not in the WWII

How would you get Imperial Japan not in the Axis?

I'm basically looking for PODs that keeps Japan out of World War II. Mostly, Japan pulls out of China in a peace.

I also want to see how Japan and the Cold War develops after.
 
Well, in that case it would no longer be a world war.

lol.:D

Actually with Australia, Canada, South Africa and such fighting the Nazis, technically its still a world war.


But seriously, just have Japan not invade China. That might mean no invasion of Manchuria though...
 

Saphroneth

Banned
IMO, you might be able to do it if you sustain the Anglo-Japanese Naval Agreement - thus potentially preventing the militarism descent that OTL Japan suffered (because, hey, the British are on their side and treating them as much-honoured equals.)
 
Alternate Prime Minister

Isoroku Yamamoto and his allies opposed an alliance with Germany and supported closer ties with the United Kingdom. Maybe have Fumimaro Konoe or Hideki Tojo and the army lose face, allowing for one of Isoroku Yamamoto's allies to become prime minister. Japan will probably get to keep their empire unless there's revolutions leading the US to put pressure on Japan (most likely Korea). If the Soviets take Southern Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands, with ties between Japan and the UK repaired, it will annoy the British but the US will side with the Soviets. Japan would probably be less advanced as today unless the US and UK support them financially as a check on the Soviets and/or Red China. Though, with the militarists ousted, Japan could potentially repair relations with China, the Soviet Union, and the United States. I only propose Mao to be winner of the Chinese Civil War because, with the Japanese out and the western Allies distracted and unable to support the Kuomintang, the Soviets could support the Chinese Communist Party all they want and break off their deal with the KMT. Thoughts?
 
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How would you get Imperial Japan not in the Axis?

I'm basically looking for PODs that keeps Japan out of World War II. Mostly, Japan pulls out of China in a peace.

I also want to see how Japan and the Cold War develops after.

I was thinking about it, and maybe, a couple Chinese victories in Mukden, and if the Japanese try again, in Shanghai, will stop the Japanese in their tracks and make them realize "this isn't gonna be that easy". It was after Shanghai that Japan felt that its purpose was to take over China (well, the army always had different ideas, but Tokyo finally said it out loud after Shanghai).

Change a few battles at the beginning and you can butterfly the war. That doesn't mean that there won't be clashes between China and Japan, and some may still escalate into a war. But for the most part, such a war would be far more limited.
 
If the Soviets take Southern Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands, with ties between Japan and the UK repaired, it will annoy the British but the US will side with the Soviets. Japan would probably be less advanced as today unless the US and UK support them financially as a check on the Soviets and/or Red China. Though, with the militarists ousted, Japan could potentially repair relations with China, the Soviet Union, and the United States. I only propose Mao to be winner of the Chinese Civil War because, with the Japanese out and the western Allies distracted and unable to support the Kuomintang, the Soviets could support the Chinese Communist Party all they want and break off their deal with the KMT. Thoughts?

???

One second. With the Japanese out, the CPC doesn't get power in the first place and remains fairly local OR it gets completely eliminated.

And why would the Soviets break off their deal with the KMT? Japan is still a threat, and civil war is not in their interests if they want to keep a card against Japan.
 
I was thinking about it, and maybe, a couple Chinese victories in Mukden, and if the Japanese try again, in Shanghai, will stop the Japanese in their tracks and make them realize "this isn't gonna be that easy". It was after Shanghai that Japan felt that its purpose was to take over China (well, the army always had different ideas, but Tokyo finally said it out loud after Shanghai).

Change a few battles at the beginning and you can butterfly the war. That doesn't mean that there won't be clashes between China and Japan, and some may still escalate into a war. But for the most part, such a war would be far more limited.

A serious defeat would definitely take the wind off the Japanese militarist wave permanently, but at the state of the Chinese military then (i.e. fragmented into private warlord armies, fighting communists, etc.), they're going to need to be a lot of changes. Maybe an earlier Yuan death during the Xinhai revolution would fragment the Beiyang Army, keeping them from becoming a viable threat to the Kuomintang (and thus not press Sun Yat-sen to gift his presidency to Yuan for a quick victory). It'd go a long way to speeding up the unification and modernization of China, and shatter Japanese ambition in the region.
 
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???

One second. With the Japanese out, the CPC doesn't get power in the first place and remains fairly local OR it gets completely eliminated.

And why would the Soviets break off their deal with the KMT? Japan is still a threat, and civil war is not in their interests if they want to keep a card against Japan.

My miscalculation; I expected the Japanese to withdraw from Manchuria and not invade French Indochina when really, it was the Attack on Pearl Harbor that brought Japan into World War II and the Japanese will probably keep Manchuria. I forgot that without Manchuria, the CCP is still weak. I also falsely believed that the war with Japan would weaken the KMT so much, the Soviets could find an opportunity to create a fellow communist nation further south in Asia.
 
How would you get Imperial Japan not in the Axis?

I'm basically looking for PODs that keeps Japan out of World War II. Mostly, Japan pulls out of China in a peace.

I also want to see how Japan and the Cold War develops after.

Japan had ambitions towards China for quite a long time. Pulling from the thread CrimsonKing made about a week ago, an invasion is possible even in 1915, but ultimately doomed to fail.

For Japan to stay out of China, China would need to be stronger and be able to defend its borders easier, cutting off the bud from the beginning - in Manchuria.

But for China to be stronger it requires a POD before 1911, because by Xinhai Yuan Shikai had consolidated all military power towards himself and without him a warlord era was definitely going to happen.
 
Incidentally, just to clarify -- if the various factions in China had gotten their act together enough to wage war against Japan for the Shangdong, Japan would be defeated, right? Does this curb their ambitions in China?

Theoretically yes, but the how is very important - the KMT wants the entirety of China under their control, and the different warlords want to control their regions, whether it be through Beiyang or Japanese help.
 
Theoretically yes, but the how is very important - the KMT wants the entirety of China under their control, and the different warlords want to control their regions, whether it be through Beiyang or Japanese help.
Right -- my thinking there is wwi ends earlier, and the window for the China declaring passes, while suddenly a lot of potential arms dealers open up at the time Duan started scheming with the Japanese OTL. The nominal unity of the Beiyang government survives through 1917 (no restoration crisis, etc), and elections in 1918 even manage to happen as scheduled; the warlords "permit" the KMT to gain seats in exchange for Li Yuanhong keeping the Presidency. China moves toward war with Japan as a way of pleasing all the factions -- rallying Chinese Nationalism for the KMT, Russian arms and/or economic help for the northern warlords, etc.

Anyway, I may be getting us off topic here :eek:
 
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Right -- my thinking there is wwi ends earlier, and the window for the China declaring passes, while suddenly a lot of potential arms dealers open up at the time Dusn started scheming with the Japanese OTL. The nominal unity of the Beiyang government survives through 1917 (no restoration crisis, etc), and elections in 1918 even manage to happen as scheduled; the warlords "permit" the KMT to gain seats in exchange for Li Yuanhong keeping the Presidency. China moves toward war with Japan as a way of pleasing all the factions -- rallying Chinese Nationalism for the KMT, Russian arms for the northern warlords, etc.

Anyway, I may be getting us off topic here :eek:

But what's the point of declaring war on a massive country right next to them that's defeated them very severely only 30 years ago?- taking back Kiauschou? Making Korea independent? The costs are way too high for the possible benefits.
 
If by Axis the OP means the Tripartite Pact, as opposed to the Anti-Comintern Pact, I think we might be able to prevent Japan from joining by having no Fall of France.
 
But what's the point of declaring war on a massive country right next to them that's defeated them very severely only 30 years ago?- taking back Kiauschou? Making Korea independent? The costs are way too high for the possible benefits.
Taking back Qiangdao and the Shangdong. You might have a point...
 

trurle

Banned
I think everybody is too concerned about politics.
But if to change the economical matters underlying politics?

In OTL, one of the underlying reasons to hostilities in China was the need to support a Japanese economy by selling a cheap clothes in huge Chinese market, which was intermittently boycotted due of outcome of 1st Sino-Japanese War back in 1895 and the annexation of Korea later.

But what if Japanese make a technical breakthrough allowing them selling more goods to US, USSR and Britain instead of China? To make disproportionate impact, it must be a tool, not a product.
How about invention of stepping motor in Japan in 1930? In OTL it happened in 1952 in US, but the design is not that complicated. Japan's industry may explode by 1935 with CNC milling machines and lathes, making a high-precision metal products for US market. Of course, no computers yet. First CNC machines will be controlled by simple punched-card programs drawn through mechanical read head by synchronous geared motors.

Therefore, most of Chinese fighting resulting in Japanese worsening relations with the US and Britain just not happen and Japan evolves as Allied country in the approaching WWII.
 
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I think everybody is too concerned about politics.
But if to change the economical matters underlying politics?

In OTL, one of the underlying reasons to hostilities in China was the need to support a Japanese economy by selling a cheap clothes in huge Chinese market, which was intermittently boycotted due of outcome of 1st Sino-Japanese War back in 1895 and the annexation of Korea later.

But what if Japanese make a technical breakthrough allowing them selling more goods to US, USSR and Britain instead of China? To make disproportionate impact, it must be a tool, not a product.
How about invention of stepping motor in Japan in 1930? In OTL it happened in 1952 in US, but the design is not that complicated. Japan's industry may explode by 1935 with CNC milling machines and lathes, making a high-precision products metal products for US market. Of course, no computers yet. First CNC machines will be controlled by simple punched-card programs drawn through mechanical read head by synchronous geared motors.

Therefore, most of Chinese fighting resulting in JApanese worsening relations with the US and Britain just not happen and Japan evolves as Allied country in the approaching WWII.
A very intriguing and thoughtful idea, although I don't think Japan has the necessary infrastructure to commit to the development and implementation of such a concept; it took a war with China for Japan to get out its best machine-products like the Zero, and that was only innovative in the attempt to go beyond the limits of its weak engine.
 
Incidentally, just to clarify -- if the various factions in China had gotten their act together enough to wage war against Japan for the Shangdong, Japan would be defeated, right? Does this curb their ambitions in China?

I would think that Japan would be defeated. The problem is getting them to commit to an offensive war in the first place.

Sun actively led a revolt against Yuan Shikai, though he had support from his opposing party as well. "Support" from the Progressive Party, and more specifically, from Liang Qichao.

It would be easier to have the Japanese actually invade for the 21 Demands because they think the British and Americans are bluffing. When it turns out that the British aren't, that just makes them more wary of entering WWII. If the British are bluffing, well, the Japanese just got sucked into a huge land war. In Asia. One feels sorry for them.

Btw (and I hope I don't seem nitpicky [gee, I've been saying that a lot lately {hey look at my PEMDAS skills}]), it's Shandong, and Qingdao is on the Shandong Peninsula
 
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