Well, in that case it would no longer be a world war.
How would you get Imperial Japan not in the Axis?
I'm basically looking for PODs that keeps Japan out of World War II. Mostly, Japan pulls out of China in a peace.
I also want to see how Japan and the Cold War develops after.
If the Soviets take Southern Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands, with ties between Japan and the UK repaired, it will annoy the British but the US will side with the Soviets. Japan would probably be less advanced as today unless the US and UK support them financially as a check on the Soviets and/or Red China. Though, with the militarists ousted, Japan could potentially repair relations with China, the Soviet Union, and the United States. I only propose Mao to be winner of the Chinese Civil War because, with the Japanese out and the western Allies distracted and unable to support the Kuomintang, the Soviets could support the Chinese Communist Party all they want and break off their deal with the KMT. Thoughts?
I was thinking about it, and maybe, a couple Chinese victories in Mukden, and if the Japanese try again, in Shanghai, will stop the Japanese in their tracks and make them realize "this isn't gonna be that easy". It was after Shanghai that Japan felt that its purpose was to take over China (well, the army always had different ideas, but Tokyo finally said it out loud after Shanghai).
Change a few battles at the beginning and you can butterfly the war. That doesn't mean that there won't be clashes between China and Japan, and some may still escalate into a war. But for the most part, such a war would be far more limited.
???
One second. With the Japanese out, the CPC doesn't get power in the first place and remains fairly local OR it gets completely eliminated.
And why would the Soviets break off their deal with the KMT? Japan is still a threat, and civil war is not in their interests if they want to keep a card against Japan.
How would you get Imperial Japan not in the Axis?
I'm basically looking for PODs that keeps Japan out of World War II. Mostly, Japan pulls out of China in a peace.
I also want to see how Japan and the Cold War develops after.
We did also talk about how Japan and China coukd have ended up at war much earlier.
Incidentally, just to clarify -- if the various factions in China had gotten their act together enough to wage war against Japan for the Shangdong, Japan would be defeated, right? Does this curb their ambitions in China?Indeed.
Incidentally, just to clarify -- if the various factions in China had gotten their act together enough to wage war against Japan for the Shangdong, Japan would be defeated, right? Does this curb their ambitions in China?
Right -- my thinking there is wwi ends earlier, and the window for the China declaring passes, while suddenly a lot of potential arms dealers open up at the time Duan started scheming with the Japanese OTL. The nominal unity of the Beiyang government survives through 1917 (no restoration crisis, etc), and elections in 1918 even manage to happen as scheduled; the warlords "permit" the KMT to gain seats in exchange for Li Yuanhong keeping the Presidency. China moves toward war with Japan as a way of pleasing all the factions -- rallying Chinese Nationalism for the KMT, Russian arms and/or economic help for the northern warlords, etc.Theoretically yes, but the how is very important - the KMT wants the entirety of China under their control, and the different warlords want to control their regions, whether it be through Beiyang or Japanese help.
Right -- my thinking there is wwi ends earlier, and the window for the China declaring passes, while suddenly a lot of potential arms dealers open up at the time Dusn started scheming with the Japanese OTL. The nominal unity of the Beiyang government survives through 1917 (no restoration crisis, etc), and elections in 1918 even manage to happen as scheduled; the warlords "permit" the KMT to gain seats in exchange for Li Yuanhong keeping the Presidency. China moves toward war with Japan as a way of pleasing all the factions -- rallying Chinese Nationalism for the KMT, Russian arms for the northern warlords, etc.
Anyway, I may be getting us off topic here![]()
Taking back Qiangdao and the Shangdong. You might have a point...But what's the point of declaring war on a massive country right next to them that's defeated them very severely only 30 years ago?- taking back Kiauschou? Making Korea independent? The costs are way too high for the possible benefits.
A very intriguing and thoughtful idea, although I don't think Japan has the necessary infrastructure to commit to the development and implementation of such a concept; it took a war with China for Japan to get out its best machine-products like the Zero, and that was only innovative in the attempt to go beyond the limits of its weak engine.I think everybody is too concerned about politics.
But if to change the economical matters underlying politics?
In OTL, one of the underlying reasons to hostilities in China was the need to support a Japanese economy by selling a cheap clothes in huge Chinese market, which was intermittently boycotted due of outcome of 1st Sino-Japanese War back in 1895 and the annexation of Korea later.
But what if Japanese make a technical breakthrough allowing them selling more goods to US, USSR and Britain instead of China? To make disproportionate impact, it must be a tool, not a product.
How about invention of stepping motor in Japan in 1930? In OTL it happened in 1952 in US, but the design is not that complicated. Japan's industry may explode by 1935 with CNC milling machines and lathes, making a high-precision products metal products for US market. Of course, no computers yet. First CNC machines will be controlled by simple punched-card programs drawn through mechanical read head by synchronous geared motors.
Therefore, most of Chinese fighting resulting in JApanese worsening relations with the US and Britain just not happen and Japan evolves as Allied country in the approaching WWII.
Incidentally, just to clarify -- if the various factions in China had gotten their act together enough to wage war against Japan for the Shangdong, Japan would be defeated, right? Does this curb their ambitions in China?