AHC: Japan divided into a Capitalist South and a Communist North

With a POD after December 7, 1941, create a scenario where the Pacific War ends with the division of Japan into a Capitalist South Japan and a Communist North Japan. Bonus points if you avoid having said North Japan devolve into a madhouse akin to the DPRK IOTL or having the two Japans reunite after the end of the Cold War.
 
Easy, the Soviets invade and occupy Hokkaido, either before Japan surrenders following the nukes and invasion of Manchuria, or after. The Soviet government actually requested the US government approve it and made preparations, but while some US officials wanted to approve it, Truman said no (although what he would have done if the Soviets had defied him is another manner). Another possibility is that the two nukes and Soviet entry into the Pacific War don't cause Japan to surrender, and the Soviets come in during a US invasion.

Having North Japan not descent to DPRK levels of loopiness is doable. But if it doesn't descent to extreme totalitarianism, the chances of preventing reunification (which in fact would be South Japan annexing the North) are very, very low.
 
But if it doesn't descent to extreme totalitarianism, the chances of preventing reunification (which in fact would be South Japan annexing the North) are very, very low.
Well, there's always a scenario where North Japan is better-off than South Japan owing to the South being utterly ravaged in Downfall.
 
You know there was a timeline that deal with this kind of scenario that was on this site along ago, i forgot the name of it, but basically what happen is that japan have a civil war after ww2 with ended with it being divided in 2, South and North japan. And North japan became the Japanese version of the dprk, with the expected craziness that would come any regime like that, unfortunately the author didn't finish it but he did share some ideas of what would have happen next, the orginal government was replaced by a reformed communist government who begin to change the country, kind of like china post mao, untill it was overthrown by the military who which then process to invade south japan and was driven back, then north japan was invaded by the south and the whole island was reunited under south japan.

It was a good timeline while it lasted and ashame the author didn't finish it but atleast he or she did share their thought of what woulden happen if it have been done.
 
Well, there's always a scenario where North Japan is better-off than South Japan owing to the South being utterly ravaged in Downfall.

First of all, the Soviets would have ravaged Hokkaido had they invaded. Secondly, recovering from the devastation by the time the Cold War ends will be very doable, especially with American assistance. South Korea was literally one of the poorest countries in the world, below most African countries. Compare and contrast with 1991. Hell, just look at what China achieved in 30 years.

The fact of the matter is that South Japan is going to have a massively superior economic system. Even if it somehow hasn't recovered by the time the Cold War ends, it will surpass North Japan. As long as it is capitalist and it's opponent is communist, then it's only a matter of time.
 
First of all, the Soviets would have ravaged Hokkaido had they invaded. Secondly, recovering from the devastation by the time the Cold War ends will be very doable, especially with American assistance. South Korea was literally one of the poorest countries in the world, below most African countries. Compare and contrast with 1991. Hell, just look at what China achieved in 30 years.

The fact of the matter is that South Japan is going to have a massively superior economic system. Even if it somehow hasn't recovered by the time the Cold War ends, it will surpass North Japan. As long as it is capitalist and it's opponent is communist, then it's only a matter of time.
Or the South could become a total basket case like South Vietnam.
 
A North Japan would be as crazy or crazier than the DPRK for the same fundamental reason; they are a divided part of a previous whole (whose citizens never wanted to be divided btw) that would be in extremely direct competition for their basic legitimacy with the other part of the whole, a larger capitalist state that is a better deal for its citizens in every way and also far stronger militarily. All of the people in it would want to join the capitalist part if possible because nationalism and money. There fundamentally isn't even a good reason states like East Germany, North Korea, and ATL North Japan should exist.

At a certain point the only way to keep the regime together in the face of that is through really brutal oppression. This is a pattern that recurred again and again in states divided into communist and capitalist spheres. Even when comparing other otherwise comparable communist regimes, the DPRK and DDR stood out as being really brutal.

It is possible you could avoid this dynamic with something like Decisive Darkness where the capitalist parts were somehow more dystopic. In that case North Japan could maybe emulate the least brutal "communist half of a divided former state", North Vietnam, which was an exception because it was stronger and richer than the South and was able to unify before the two could really pull apart.

Making a communist state richer than comparable capitalist ones and then making that hold in the long term is really, really hard, though. That is, in a nutshell, why communism isn't a going thing anymore.
 
The WPDJ wasn't really meant to be the "Best Japan", just a different version of Japan. Albeit less traumatised, perhaps.
Well, I was talking of the WPDJ as the "Best Japan" in the sense of being the Japanese state with the highest standard of living for the average citizen.
 
Well, I was talking of the WPDJ as the "Best Japan" in the sense of being the Japanese state with the highest standard of living for the average citizen.

It would have some competition with the Free Territory depending on how you measured standard of living, these sorts of things are all relative.
 
So, what would the borders between the two Japans be? Would North Japan consist only of Hokkaido or would it have Northern Honshu/Tohoku?
 

Cook

Banned
First of all, the Soviets would have ravaged Hokkaido had they invaded.

Probably not; the Red Army's actions in Europe were not repeated in the east. The Soviets took South Sakhalin in under two weeks without devastating it. They also swept through all of Manchuria and halfway down the Korean peninsular, all in a similar time period, and that was against twenty-five Japanese infantry divisions, again without ravishing the country they swept through.

Far more relevant to a Socialist North Japan is that almost all of Japan's pre-war heavy industry, such that there was in Japan, was all in the south; Hokkaido and northern Honshu were backwaters, which of course is why there were so few Japanese forces there in late 1945 and why the Soviets would have had an easy time of it. Hokkaido's cities suffered significantly less bombing raids than further south; less industry and population to merit bombing.
 
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