AHC: Japan as the primary challenger to the supremacy of 19th Pax Britania

Erm... why? Anglo-Japanese relations were pretty minimal before the 19th century, there's no reason to think that a unified Japan would in any way lead to a less unified British Isles.
Two possibilities off my head:

Japan affects the Philippines, thus affecting Spain, thus affecting England.
Japan affects Korea, thus affecting China, thus affecting Russia, thus affecting Europe, thus affecting England.

Not all butterflies are direct.
 

trurle

Banned
Why would the Dutch stick with the Russians? Their vulnerable trade routes would be liberally pillaged by British ships.
Also I don't think the French would ever be in such dire straits to consider that option.

The main revenue-bringing routes of NEI (Netherlands East Indies) were local east Asian routes. The disruption by of Dutch trade routes by British may be not fatal if Dutch manage to control the choke point of Singapore. The role of French in Japanese rise was important, but not critical. Anyway American Civil War ends in 1865, and US-British relations in 1865-1870 were "chilly". In ATL, US can take the place of France if needed (which i doubt, because of the politics of French IOTL in Crimean War of 1855 was more self-centred rather then pro-British)

IOTL, Dutch had a long history of concessions to British, because direct opposition would be suicidal. But Britain weakened by indecisive outcome of Crimean War of 1855 (which was a war won by force multiplier (therefore susceptible to technological invention-dependent POD)) may be perceived as a more vulnerable. And vulnerability attract the scavengers.. in this case the Dutch-Russian-Japanese alliance as i propose.

Also, in proposed ATL, the Russo-Turkish War (1877–78) is going to turn out a catastrophe for Ottomans (may be up to occupation of Istanbul), resulting in Russian control of Sea of Marmara and setting the ground for the anti-British coalition intervention in the First Boer War in 1880.

My basic strategy to find solution for this challenge:
0) Prevent too-early POD resulting in great changes (i.e. it is too easy to develop a timeline where British were never a dominant world power)
1) Find the latest POD reducing the economic power of British to the point it can be confronted.
2) Assemble a coalition for actual confrontation (including Japan as requested)
3) Ensure eventual domination of coalition by Japan by including other members with power on decline.

Of course, i understand the challenge is a stretch. From the POD, because the technological and institutional modernization in 19th century Russian Empire was crippled by many deeply entrenched factors. The most important was the serfdom system not broken until 1861 (end even in 1861 the serfdom end was grossly unpopular among Russian elites). Dutch, on the other side, had a terrible problems with corruption and legacy financial systems (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_the_Netherlands_(1500–1815)#Final_crisis ) Even Japan appears to be less handicapped during the era.
 
That is pretty intriguing; an early "Japanese" maritime trade empire because of the equivalent of an early Meiji-like reform, along the lines of the Dutch in the Pacific, by the early 1700s is definitely a game-changer... the Dutch are very vulnerable at home to the British and their continenal neighbors, however, so an Anglo-Dutch alliance would seem to make sense, rather than a Dutch-Japanese alliance - which leaves the Japanese and all their aquired technology odd men out.

The next thing that comes to mind, however, is steam. If the Japanese have the equivalent of frigates and trading brigs in service in 1800, that makes them very competitive (sort of a US analogue, actually), but when the industrial revolution hits, they are stuck with technology that is rapidly obsolescing...

Very interesting concept.

I still like my "Japanese as Macedonians" idea, though. Samurai diadochi would be epic in their own way...

Best,

I will not now, nor ever, knock the idea of samurai diadochi with three-master frigates.

I think that technology tended to flow quite fast along the trade routes in the 19th Century; reverse engineering is quite possible if you have the right industrial base. There's a reason that Japan adopted steam as fast as possible OTL, this just has it sliding into a much more oiled machine about sixty years earlier. Heck, they even have the coal mines to pump out.

I also think this could have the knock on, besides on Spain and the Dutch and English, but on Korea and Japan as well. Quite the rising local threat, an open Japan is.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Yep ... the interesting question is if the same politics

I will not now, nor ever, knock the idea of samurai diadochi with three-master frigates.

I think that technology tended to flow quite fast along the trade routes in the 19th Century; reverse engineering is quite possible if you have the right industrial base. There's a reason that Japan adopted steam as fast as possible OTL, this just has it sliding into a much more oiled machine about sixty years earlier. Heck, they even have the coal mines to pump out.

I also think this could have the knock on, besides on Spain and the Dutch and English, but on Korea and Japan as well. Quite the rising local threat, an open Japan is.

Yep ... the interesting question is if the same geopolitics come into place in the (say) 1790s in the case of an "early Meijied" Japan as came into place in the 1890s; rapid Westernization led to Japan's focus on northeastern Asia, rather than the Pacific per se...

In an era where the Russians are less entrenched in the Far East than they were historically, that may give the Japanese even more leeway in trying to achieve their ambitions on the continent.

It also raises the question of where such a "Westerninzing in the Eighteenth Century" would fall in terms of the Anglo-French confrontation, which was the great strategic question of the age ... an Anglo-Japanese alliance, or the Anglo-Japanese equivalent of the Quasi War? Or of the 1812-15 war, over Japanese ambitions in Asia or British overreach? Do the British impress Japanese sailors? Cut them off from trade with Europe? If so, does that lead to - say - an American-Japanese alliance?

Or if Spain and Portugal are under the "Napoleonic boot," do the Philippines and the Portuguese colonies in Asia get "liberated" by joint Anglo-Japanese forces and the Japanese decide to stay on?

Many, many ripples...

Best,
 
Last edited:
Having designs on India, or the perception of having designs on India, made Russia a major British rival in the 19th. A Japan that's "out" so to speak will probably step into that role nicely.

There are two things I'm thinking for this Bakufu Meiji situation. One, it means Japan is trading with the West and industrializing, really, proto-industrializing, without having many graphic examples of what the Gaijin will do to you if you don't make it quick. Two, it's doing so under a government that is if anything more militaristic than a 19th Century government just trying to keep up with the civilian mores of the time.

Actually, three things. Effectively, what a Japan with up to the mark ships by the early 1700s is a local carrier for a lot of the items - silk, porcelain, spices, etc. coming out of the Pacific littoral. Think of the extra logistics involved for the English or Dutch of sending out Indiamen to these regions, or the Spanish Manilla Galleon, compared with the amount of bottoms they had for trade to the North Sea or Mediterranean. Trade with the Pacific littoral is Japan's North Sea and Mediterranean. I do think that having a local shipper with blue-water ships would substantially increase the amount of those goods that can move further West. How does European history change if the profit margin on trade with the East Indies is lower due to the goods being more common? I"m still fleshing out the idea here.
 
Top