AHC: James Buchanan Prevents the Civil War in 1860

He accedes peacefully to southern secession, signing a treaty of recognition and thus avoiding war.

Seriously, man was a timid and pitiful figure who had no steel of resolve in him.
 
basically Buchanan did acquiesce to secession de facto - he did nothing to combat it once it started. In any case the day Lincoln takes office he calls BS and things start. basically once Lincoln is elected secession is inevitable and will be resisted by the north. If Buchanan shows some spine before the war it might be averted by IMHO, and most historians by the 1850s things were just too divided to work out peacefully.
 
I was going to post that if he dies quickly, the Vice President could take office. But then I remembered Breckenridge was Vice President and it becomes clear that no matter what the Union is screwed and war will happen.

The Union had a massive amount of popular support to preserve the union as much or more than the popular support in the South to break it. One way or another, the North was not going to accept a peaceful break, especially not after "Bleeding Kansas"
 
He accedes peacefully to southern secession, signing a treaty of recognition and thus avoiding war.

Seriously, man was a timid and pitiful figure who had no steel of resolve in him.

This. One wonders what Lincoln would (or could) have done if Buchanan's administration had immediately recognized the seceding states as independent and signed a treaty or treaties recognizing this - which also might reasonably have established a mechanism for the Southern States to purchase federal property. This is very unlikely, but if it occurred I seriously doubt that Lincoln would have the political power to revoke these agreements, which would clearly constitute blatant aggression in the eyes of the "international community", ie: Britain and France.
 

jahenders

Banned
To have full force, the treaties would have to be ratified by the senate. That's probably as unlikely as signing them in the first place. However, IF the senate does ratify them then it would be a done deal that Lincoln would be hard pressed to undo.

If Buchanan signs, but the Senate does NOT ratify, then it's probably an 'open item' on Lincoln's and he takes action. It might be harder politically since Buchanan would have muddied the water a lot with stupid treaties, but it might still unfold similar to IOTL.

This. One wonders what Lincoln would (or could) have done if Buchanan's administration had immediately recognized the seceding states as independent and signed a treaty or treaties recognizing this - which also might reasonably have established a mechanism for the Southern States to purchase federal property. This is very unlikely, but if it occurred I seriously doubt that Lincoln would have the political power to revoke these agreements, which would clearly constitute blatant aggression in the eyes of the "international community", ie: Britain and France.
 

jahenders

Banned
Of course, since not all the southern states had even secede by the time Lincoln took office, Buchanan could only recognize and make treaties with those who had seceded while he was in office. If he did so, that might encourage the others to move more quickly to secede.
 
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