AHC: Izvolski-Ährenthal Plan goes through: KuK gets Bosnia, Russia gets the Straits

I don't know how obscure this is, but when I first learnt of it I was amazed that this was part of the background for the Austrian annexation of BiH. So, as far as I know, the thing here is that the Russian government and the Austrian government, through their respective foreign ministers, made the deal that in a general conference, Austria would support Russia's demands of a Bosphorus open for her navy, and Russia would support an Austrian annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. If I've got my facts straight, Austria jumped at the chance to annex Bosnia in 1908, after the Young Turk Revolution in the Ottoman Empire, and it was presented as a fait accompli, while Russia got nothing.

Your challenged here is, with a PoD close to the turn of the century(even a little before that, but no earlier than the ascent of Czar Nicholas II of Russia to the imperial throne), to have a general conference on the Balkans, that eventually results in the Great powers recognizing an Austrian annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, with the straits issue being resolved in Russia's favour. Could this have happened? If yes, how would it have affected Austro-Russian relations? Could it have signaled the beginning of a rapprochement between the two powers, as their interests in the Balkans would slowly begin to converge? Could this mean a Russia that abandons Pan-Slavism to exert influence more meaningfully in the Middle East and the former Ottoman Arabia, while Austria turns its focus towards Italy?

I'm guessing that a likely way to achieve that would be Austria doing nothing in 1908, and then, at some point in the 1910s, Turkey loses badly in a war with Italy and the Balkan League of OTL, that then results in a general conference on the Balkans, that is resolved with those two gains for Austria and Russia coming to pass.
 

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From what I remember of situation, which admittedly I had looked into years ago, the Austrians (just Aehrenthal really, who as I recall did this on his own initiative) had no intention of honoring the deal, they just wanted Russian support and it created a lot of bad blood between them that helped lead to WW1. They had little to gain by supporting the Russian plan and played the Russian diplomat. Also the Austrians were deathly afraid of Turkey trying to reclaim the province, which is why they needed the annexation to happen ASAP and couldn't wait for years, because each year strengthened Turkey and increased the chance they'd reclaim the territory, which by international recognition was theirs.
 
From what I remember of situation, which admittedly I had looked into years ago, the Austrians (just Aehrenthal really, who as I recall did this on his own initiative) had no intention of honoring the deal, they just wanted Russian support and it created a lot of bad blood between them that helped lead to WW1. They had little to gain by supporting the Russian plan and played the Russian diplomat. Also the Austrians were deathly afraid of Turkey trying to reclaim the province, which is why they needed the annexation to happen ASAP and couldn't wait for years, because each year strengthened Turkey and increased the chance they'd reclaim the territory, which by international recognition was theirs.

If I’m being totally honest I got the original inspiration for this question from a “Fall of Eagles” Episode. Yes, from my understanding the Austrians had little use for the treaty, and it was paramount for them to act fast. But was there really no chance that for some reason, that couldn’t have happened, but that later, a weaker Ottoman Empire badly losing a Balkan-meets-Italian War could have led to the treaty/or “treaty” being implemented?
 
The problem isn't the Austrians (eg Aehrenthal, a man who wanted better relations with Russia) lying, rather Izvolsky agreeing to something that the majority of Russians were against. The deal fell through not because Izvolsky was "hoodwinked", rather Izvolsky was the "hoodwinker" who, after realizing that Britain was entirely opposed to Russia having any access to the straits and Russian nationalist opinion cried out on behalf of Serbia, that he had made massive mistake and tried to save his reputation and career by flat out lying that he was "duped".

If you can give Izvolsky greater support within the Russian government the deal has a chance of going through.
 
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