AHC: Israel Founded A Decade Earlier

The challenge here is to create a Jewish state in Palestine earlier than IOTL. The rules:
1. There must be a Jewish state in Palestine by July 1, 1939. That state must rule a territory that is majority Jewish. A partition agreement a la the UN 1947 plan is acceptable, if you can make it work. It is also acceptable for the Jewish state to not have complete independence by 1939.
2. The POD can be no earlier than 1900. In addition, World War II may not be butterflied. Basically, World War I happens more or less as OTL, although we could try for a larger pre-WWI Jewish population in Palestine.
3. No large-scale atrocities to produce the Jewish state. No genocide or ethnic cleansing.
4. Needless to say, the Jewish state must join the Allies in World War II, and we must have Israeli troops fighting against the Nazis.

The surest approach I could see would be an increase in Jewish immigration that gets us a Jewish majority in the 1930s. Having more Jews come in the earlier aliyot would be a start, but I think we'd need a mass exodus from somewhere. I can think of two sources: Germany and Russia.

I don't think it would be realistic for Jews to flee Germany en masse the minute Hitler is elected. The most plausible scenario is that Hitler deliberately drives them out, figuring he can deal with them later. It's not implausible that many, if not most, go to Palestine.


As for Russia, I have three ideas. One is a large-scale Jewish exodus pre-1917, on the orders of the Tsar. After WWI, the Jewish refugees mostly go to Palestine.


The second is that Lenin deliberately encourages Jewish emigration to Palestine to build a socialist state there (probably following an agreement with Ben-Gurion). A side effect would be an Israel that was friendly to the Soviet Union.


The third, and possibly most interesting, would be Trotsky fleeing to Palestine and joining the Zionists. Subsequently, the Soviet Union expels much of its own Jewish population. These latter two approaches could also result in a much more explicitly socialist Israel.

Once we get a Jewish majority, what would the Arab response be? The first thing that comes to mind is continuing their demands for a singular Arab state, now accompanied by a demand for deporting the Jewish immigrants. I don't see that having any effect except possibly forcing the British into a pro-Zionist position, which probably ends with the British handing power over to the Jewish Agency.


At least some of the Arabs would probably accept a Jewish state. Transjordan's King Abdullah was certainly inclined in that direction. Egypt might do the same. If they take the risk of going public with their views, the Arabs might splinter, or even swing towards grudgingly accepting a Jewish state.


The internal structure of this earlier Israel would probably be quite similar to OTL. They would have a larger Arab minority at the start (although no doubt many Arabs would leave), but I don't see any major differences. David Ben-Gurion is still the first Prime Minister, the state is moderately socialist, etc.


Also interesting would be Hitler's reaction. I doubt it would have much of an impact, but what might the official position of the Third Reich on the establishment of a Jewish state be?
 
mass deportations

Scenarios where the tsar or communists just expel the Jews need one other element that was missing from our timeline: countries willing to accept the Jews. Unlike in previous centuries you can't just send the Jews across the border. The San Remo conference demonstrated tot he Nazis that no one would accept the Jews. So prior to 1916 you can't just expel them to the Ottoman empire which at the time was scheduling the genocide of the Armenians ( and if not for the British the Yishuv for it ties to Russia and Britain). After 1916 you can't expel them to the British Mandate ( which spent a great deal to time and effort to block clandestine immigration).

This is one of the reasons why having a Jewish state is important, so that when they come for the Jews there is a place they can go immediately for safety rather than wait for a committee or bureaucracy to decide if it's worth it to save them. I have always thought that the argument that in case of an imminent Israeli defeat, Europe or The USA will simply accept millions of Israeli refugees to be wishful thinking at best.
 
The neighboring nations armies overrun and destroy Israel.

Because in their actual War of Independence a vast number of Israel soldiers were highly experienced and battle tested World War Two veterans. Something that gave them a big edge in combat.
 
Before 1939, the neighboring nations were Britain and France. They won't invade anyone, they're already there. The most that would happen would be that Arab/Muslim populations annexed by Israel will react with violence, and British/French forces will put them down.

If they're implementing the Peel Commission plan, the military of neighboring nations (Britain and France) will be deployed to keep the peace against the inevitable Arab/Muslim response to the implementation of this plan. Chances are good that the Peel borders will be stable for decades after that, since it will be effectively a Franco-British co-dominion, and these players will be interested in keeping local Arab/Muslim leaders friendly.

This basically means that, if butterflies leave WWII alone, we get a smaller Israel, with a greater Jewish majority. The Peel borders always made more sense to me than the borders that were implemented in reality. The British Zone in Jerusalem will be internationalized in some way, or it would be the focal point for conflict in the region; Israel will never give up that claim, and the locals will never politely leave.
 
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